2019 Draft Thread

[Hrubes20]

 

 

That’s Isaiah Campbell, the college RH I mentioned a couple posts up, throwing an 85 MPH changeup. I like him as a multi-inning reliever type more than a pure SP, but that’s not really a knock. 21 YO senior

 

I watched a lot of Campbell last year and his fastball command was not good. Always possible that he changed something up and has improved there, but I really don't like those types if it can be avoided.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=599947

 

Matthew Lugo is a 2019 SS/2B with a 6-1 185 lb. frame from Manati, PR who attends Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy. Outstanding high waisted projectable athletic build. 6.46 runner, very light on his feet defensively, has a very quick first step with quick twitch actions and is fast and light on his feet, stays balanced well with smooth hands and a quick transfer, charges the ball well. Right handed hitter, hits from a wide base with good rhythm to his swing, loose swing with good extension and plenty of present bat speed, smooth and projectable with very sound present hitting mechanics to help him grow. Very good student, verbal commitment to Miami. Nephew of former MLB star Carlos Beltran. Selected to play in the 2018 Perfect Game All-American Classic.

 

Huh... I did not know he was Carlos Beltran's nephew. Good balanced swing. A solid all-around prospect and I'm surprised how low he is currently on THE BOARD! over at Fangraphs. Good target for the second round if he falls that far.

 

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The title for best prep arm in this draft class is between this guy and Daniel Espino. Both have nasty stuff, but Espino has the more explosive fastball and better velo. I like both of them, but we're probably not targeting a pitcher (especially a HS pitcher). The Cubs are taking an advanced college bat that performed in the Cape Cod League. That is the smart play and safest choice.

[Hrubes20]

I watched a lot of Campbell last year and his fastball command was not good. Always possible that he changed something up and has improved there, but I really don't like those types if it can be avoided.

 

He’s at 4 walks, no HRs, and 23 hits allowed in 30+ innings this year and 44 Ks. That suggests some development in the command area to me. There’s some shades of Hatch in that he missed 2017 to a non-surgery elbow injury, maybe you saw rust? I don’t necessarily see a guy with outright poor or nonexistent fastball command, though yeah nothing jumps out enough where my initial impression high ceiling ML SP or first rounder. I like the overall package of frame, very athletic delivery, quick arm, multiple spins, velocity, willingness to pitch guys inside, mostly quality or better performances...

 

That very well could be. My bro in law coached for Arkansas last season and I caught a bunch of their games. Every time I saw Campbell he was constantly missing his spots with his heater. It was a season long thing.

 

It's also possible he tweaked something in his delivery to help this out, because his walk numbers are way down this year. Something to watch going forward as he goes heavy into SEC competition now.

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The latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

 

Ben M: It feels like to date we aren’t getting the same type of negative reports on the high schoolers that caused players like gorman to slide last year. Is that accurate?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Not a question I get very often. I think Gorman may have stood out more because he was a top 10 overall prospect for us wire to wire but had some clear deficiencies that got a little worse during the spring

 

Kiley McDaniel: That said, we kept him in the top 10 (we settled on him at 7th, he went 19th overall) because we thought those things were fixable and the strengths were too good to pass up

 

Kiley McDaniel: So I wouldn’t say that was a unique amount of negative info on a top prospect. We have said Abrams probably can’t play SS longterm, Witt has real hit tool questions, Espino has a really long arm stroke and may throw too hard too early, etc. which is on par with the Gorman stuff

 

shf9: What’s going on with Carter Stewart? He’s falling fast down your draft rankings.

 

Kiley McDaniel: two quick draft questions, then I’ll get to some pro stuff. The reports on Stewart are notably worse than this point last year. Around this point last year, Stewart was 93-95, touching 97 mph, flashing a 70 curveball and showing starter traits. Now he’s mostly 90-93, touching 97 but not in the strike zone, curveball is flashing 60 and the body/delivery/command have regressed. The main concern about the wrist last summer is the quality of the breaking ball would regress and that has happened along with some athleticism, which is likely unrelated. Could still bounce back, but he’s a clear tier lower now

 

Hunter Bishop: Could I go as high as 3rd?

 

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t see that, with Abrams and Witt right there, but if you keep going nuts, maybe 8-10?

 

JT: How does Hunter Bishop compare to Conforto when he was in college?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Conforto had a better approach and hit tool by a pretty good margin. Bishop has a little more raw and speed and has a chance to play CF. Conforto at draft time is still better, given the offensive track record

 

bubbf: I notice that Jackson Rutledge dropped a bit after you saw him in person. What did you see that led to him sinking down The Board?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t pitch with much conviction, kinda sailed on pure ability for me and others have seen the same thing. control over command that wasn’t punished much vs. lesser hitters, doesn’t seem to have the mentality/aggression to relieve, which may be the best use of his ability. Lots of size and stuff and it comes out easy, but not sure what it will be

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I think he has the most raw power in this draft class. It's a good swing and hit tool as well.

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Good company. The one guy above Rece Hinds on that list is 2018 draft pick Blaze Alexander (who has an absolute cannon for an arm). Fangraphs gave him a grade 80 under arm strength and some scouts preferred him as a pitcher over SS.

 

Not sure if Hinds can stick at 3B, but having a plus arm definitely helps.

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Mock draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

27 Cubs: Kameron Misner Missouri OF

 

Why It Makes Sense: The Cubs built their team on the back of productive college bats selected early in the draft, and Misner has a track record of hitting in the Southeastern Conference that stacks up with anyone. He’s coming off of a .360/.497/.576 campaign that would have been even more impressive if not for a foot injury that cut his season short by six weeks. Misner also has a solid wood bat track record and showed he could hit for power without aluminum in his hands when he hit eight home runs in 38 games during the summer of 2017 in the New England Collegiate League.

 

I really wish this was still a possibility. Misner is an incredible athlete and rising like crazy. Have been told Cubs' scouts have seen him (and probably really like him), but we realistically have no shot at him now.

 

The only tool that is currently projected to be below-average is the hit tool (which is a big deal) on Fangraphs, but I bet it gets updated to a projected 50 sometime soon. MLB.com already has his hit tool projected as a 55. His projected raw power is a 70. Runs well and has a strong arm. Not a perfect comp, but I've heard his upside is similar to a lefty-hitting George Springer.

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I don't really care about RHP Brett Thomas, but that video is awesome. It's so much easier to break down a swing and pitching mechanics this way. Great upgrade.

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Fangraphs draft profile on Nico Hoerner:

[pre]Hit: 35/55

Game: 30/40

Raw: 50/50

Speed: 70/70

Field: 45/50

Arm: 50/50[/pre]

Fangraphs draft profile on Braden Shewmake:

[pre]Hit: 35/55

Game: 25/45

Raw: 45/50

Speed: 55/50

Field: 45/50

Arm: 55/55[/pre]

So I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. Guess I was just waiting for him to heat up and post better stats. He reminds me a lot of last year's 1st round pick Nico Hoerner. They aren't exactly alike or have the same profile, but both appeal to what the Cubs are looking for in an advanced bat. They have good swings and display great discipline. Amazing instincts and outstanding makeup. Shewmake is a coach's son and people rave about his baseball IQ, leadership and overall makeup.

 

Not sure if he can stick at SS and there are questions about his defensive ability just like with Hoerner. Both players are athletic, but Hoerner is the better athlete. Shewmake has the stronger arm. He has 6 SB so far this season without getting caught. That probably has more to do with his good instincts and that shouldn't be a big part of his game later on. He definitely isn't as fast as Hoerner and will probably slow down even more as he matures.

 

On the plus side, he's much bigger at 6'4" and has room to fill out and get stronger. He bats lefthanded. Just like with Hoerner, the team that drafts him will probably want to tinker with the swing a little bit and get him to hit at a higher launch angle. It's a pretty flat swing and he doesn't try to hit for power. Shewmake goes opposite field often and has a good approach. Has hit over .300 every season in college. Really good prospect who's a lock for the first round in my opinion.

 

Not sure if he'll make it to the Cubs right now. I'm sure there are GMs/Presidents of MLB teams wondering how Nico Hoerner fell so far in the draft last year and why their scouting departments had him ranked so low. There are a lot of good hitters in this draft class (and definitely some with higher upsides) so maybe he'll fall on draft day and the Cubs will have a chance.

[Hrubes20]

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Fangraphs draft profile on Nico Hoerner:

[pre]Hit: 35/55

Game: 30/40

Raw: 50/50

Speed: 70/70

Field: 45/50

Arm: 50/50[/pre]

Fangraphs draft profile on Braden Shewmake:

[pre]Hit: 35/55

Game: 25/45

Raw: 45/50

Speed: 55/50

Field: 45/50

Arm: 55/55[/pre]

So I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. Guess I was just waiting for him to heat up and post better stats. He reminds me a lot of last year's 1st round pick Nico Hoerner. They aren't exactly alike or have the same profile, but both appeal to what the Cubs are looking for in an advanced bat. They have good swings and display great discipline. Amazing instincts and outstanding makeup. Shewmake is a coach's son and people rave about his baseball IQ, leadership and overall makeup.

 

Not sure if he can stick at SS and there are questions about his defensive ability just like with Hoerner. Both players are athletic, but Hoerner is the better athlete. Shewmake has the stronger arm. He has 6 SB so far this season without getting caught. That probably has more to do with his good instincts and that shouldn't be a big part of his game later on. He definitely isn't as fast as Hoerner and will probably slow down even more as he matures.

 

On the plus side, he's much bigger at 6'4" and has room to fill out and get stronger. He bats lefthanded. Just like with Hoerner, the team that drafts him will probably want to tinker with the swing a little bit and get him to hit at a higher launch angle. It's a pretty flat swing and he doesn't try to hit for power. Shewmake goes opposite field often and has a good approach. Has hit over .300 every season in college. Really good prospect who's a lock for the first round in my opinion.

 

Not sure if he'll make it to the Cubs right now. I'm sure there are GMs/Presidents of MLB teams wondering how Nico Hoerner fell so far in the draft last year and why their scouting departments had him ranked so low. There are a lot of good hitters in this draft class (and definitely some with higher upsides) so maybe he'll fall on draft day and the Cubs will have a chance.

 

This is a reaaaaaally deep draft for college hitters. Plays right into the strength of this FO.

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This is a reaaaaaally deep draft for college hitters. Plays right into the strength of this FO.

 

Yeah, I mentioned that a few posts back and how pitching is pretty lackluster in this draft. It'd be nice if there was more pitching at the top just so it could push some of the polished college bats down.

 

I was hoping to get some input from UK, but he's been MIA. I mentioned this to Raisin, but it feels like a lot of the posters that normally engage in this thread are missing. Even Raisin is super busy right now and hasn't been posting much. Hopefully he posts some BA content once he gets some free time.

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From the latest Klaw chat:

 

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?

Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.

 

Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.

 

Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?

Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

This isn't really related to this year's draft, but I wanted to include it. Saw a pretty funny tweet the other day saying the A's were planning on taking Ja Morant in this year's draft lol.

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So that means Adley Rutschman is probably getting $7.5 mil from Baltimore.

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So the Cubs have the fifth smallest bonus pool for the 2019 MLB draft. Their pick at #27 has a slot value of $2,570,100. Arizona has a bunch of picks and a crazy large bonus pool this year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.

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Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.

 

That always happens around this time when scouts are looking for flaws and breaking down prospects and preparing to rank them. Yeah, the pitching really sucks and I wouldn't be super psyched if my team had a top 10 pick this year.

 

Still, there are a bunch of really good college hitters. Some HS bats with high ceilings (and high risk) like Rece Hinds. The Cubs will probably load up on hitting prospects again in this draft.

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Great video. I've watched a lot of SS Nasim Nunez and he's outstanding defensively. Really strong arm and capable of making every kind of throw. Rising up draft boards.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.

 

That always happens around this time when scouts are looking for flaws and breaking down prospects and preparing to rank them. Yeah, the pitching really sucks and I wouldn't be super psyched if my team had a top 10 pick this year.

 

Still, there are a bunch of really good college hitters. Some HS bats with high ceilings (and high risk) like Rece Hinds. The Cubs will probably load up on hitting prospects again in this draft.

 

Yeah, it might be the dearth of pitching causing this but most draft writers have stated this is a weaker draft than the normal weak ones.

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So going by Fangraphs and their rankings I decided to go back and compare the ratings for this year's draft class vs. the 2018 draft class. It's hardly scientific and conclusive. Also, the rankings and ratings are still in flux and changing for the 2019 draft class so maybe I should wait to do this, but whatever...

 

2018 Fangraphs draft class rankings: 60 FV rating -- 0, 55 FV rating (Casey Mize and Nick Madrigal) -- 2, 50 FV rating -- 10, 45+ FV rating -- 5, 45 FV rating -- 26, 40+ FV rating -- 17.

 

Total players with an FV 40+ or above: 60 players

 

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2019 Fangraphs draft class rankings: 60 FV rating (Adley Rutschman, duh) -- 1, 55 FV rating -- 0, 50 FV rating -- 7, 45+ FV rating -- 5, 45 FV rating -- 30, 40+ FV rating -- 14.

 

Total players with an FV 40+ or above: 57 players

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pagenum=0&team=&pos=&filter=&pageitems=100

 

So I didn't tally all the players with a rating of 40 FV because I needed to cut it off somewhere and thought 40+ FV was fine. It seems pretty close and the ratings are still changing for the 2019 draft class. I mean technically the ratings are changing for the 2018 draft class too, but this is what they had before the draft. Nico Hoerner was a 45 FV in the 2018 draft rankings and is a 50 FV now.

 

I think this draft class is weak compared to other years, but it doesn't seem too far off.

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