Jim Callis Chat, 03-15-04

[mlpeel]

Northside Baseball welcomes Jim Callis, who's taking time out of his busy schedule to answer your questions on Cubs prospects. Jim is the executive editor of Baseball America and is one of the authors of BA's "Prospect Handbook"; he writes the Cubs prospects section in that book, but his expertise covers all major league prospects -- and most other things baseball, too.

 

Take it away, Jim!

Edited March 16, 2004 by mlpeel

[Jim Callis]

Northside Baseball welcomes Jim Callis, who's taking time out of his busy schedule to answer your questions on Cubs prospects. Jim is the executive editor of Baseball America and is one of the authors of BA's "Prospect Handbook"; he writes the Cubs prospects section in that book, but his expertise covers all major league prospects -- and most other things baseball, too.

 

If you think of any questions while the chat is ongoing, post them here. A moderator will move them to this thread.

 

Take it away, Jim!

 

I'm here now, sorry for the delay but father responsibilities beckoned. Six pages of questions is a little daunting, so let's get right to them.

[Jim Callis]

The last two No. 1's dropped to the Cubs due to injury concerns. Jim, what are the odds of... Bobby Brownlie's fastball returning to it's pre-tendenitis form of topping out at 97 MPH and all of Ryan Harvey's speed returning post-ACL. Thanks

 

While Brownlie topped out at 97, he didn't throw that hard regularly and that was his four-seamer, which was pretty straight. If he can pitch in the low 90s with better movement, and he should be able to, that will be more than enough with his command and his curveball. He got worn out early last year because his season really started in January, when he showcased himself for the Cubs. I think he's going to be very good this year.

 

Harvey should be fine. He should be able to get back in the 6.7-6.8 range in the 60, which will be very good for a 6-foot-5, 220-pounder. He's another guy who could really open some eyes this year.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

While there will always be a connection between Dopirak and Harvey due to attending the same HS (Dunedin), raw power, both appear to have a high risk/reward, tall/musclular, etc.. But, could you seperate the two as far as who has the advantage as far as bat speed, raw power, batting eye, and who will likely hit for a higher avg? (I understand that Harvey is rated higher than Brian, but I'd like to get a gauge as to how much higher Harvey projects)

 

Harvey, Harvey, Harvey. Nothing against Dopirak, and I know Harvey's stats weren't pretty in the Arizona League, but Harvey is a more advanced and more polished hitter. His edge in terms of bat speed and raw power isn't as pronounced, but he still rates ahead of Dopirak. When Dopirak was in high school, scouts thought he had the chance to be a 40-plus homer guy but also had the chance to maybe wash out in Double-A. That's still a fair assessment.

[Jim Callis]

Any special optimism for any of the four fringeys that Hendry has signed: Jamey Wright, Gary Glover, Ryan Dempster, or Jimmy Anderson? Any reason to think that Anderson’s stuff will be better suited to relief or that he’s ready to settle in as a useful pitcher?

 

Dempster’s signing puzzled me: the 05 option year would cost a couple million. How likely is it that he’d rehab fast enough and be able to show enough this summer to justify that kind of money for next season? With Guzman, Cruz, Blasko, Brownlie, Mitre all lining up to succeed Clement, why would you even consider throwing a couple million at a guy coming off surgery who was a high-ERA HR-factory pitcher even before the surgery?

 

Craig Jasperse, Fargo ND

 

No special optimism. I think they're just throwing darts, which is a worthwhile gamble, but I don't see any of these guys stemming the tide of pitching talent approaching Wrigley Field. I can't see Dempster showing enough to justify picking up his option either.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

In last year's amateur draft, the Cubs went pretty hard after catchers in the early rounds to address a very weak position thoughout the minor league system. In your opinion, now that their lower minors are overstocked with C's, do you see the Cubs focusing on another position in this draft, or will it be back to the "draft the best talent available" philosophy?

 

I think the Cubs still took the top guy on their draft board each round last year, though they pushed several catchers up the draft board. Despite their efforts, they're still pretty thin behind the plate. Tony Richie had more shoulder problems and Jake Fox wasn't impressive defensively, so they're still looking for catchers.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

Sergio Mitre had a great season last year in the Cubs farm system. What skills does he need to develop at Iowa in 2004, and what to you figure his ceiling to be?

 

Compare Sergio Mitre's sinker and breaking pitch with Derek Lowe's. I think Lowe's breaking ball is good at times but very inconsistent and he gets away with it because his sinker is so good. Could Mitre live the same life?

 

Mitre is more of a back-half-of-the-rotation guy for me. He's not overpowering, so he's going to have to learn to locate his pitches better. He can throw strikes, but he gives up a lot of hits. His sinker is his best pitch, but I think Derek Lowe comparisons are a bit much. He may wind up as a big league middle reliever, and because he's so close to the majors I wouldn't be surprised if he gets used as trade bait this summer.

[Jim Callis]

When I saw Felix Pie last spring, his stance was such that his back leg was very bent with his lead leg straight and far forward. His weight was nearly all on his back leg and limited his rotation as he swung, robbing him of much potential power. Do you think the Cubs will adjust his stance as he matures and gets stronger or will the groom him as a speedy, singles-hitting leadoff man?

 

I guess the general question is this: how much influence does a club exert on prospects as they develop to push them in one direction or another and how much of that is up to the prospect? Is it a simple case by case basis with no fundamental answer?

 

Clubs are more likely to change the mechanics of a pitcher than of a hitter. Some are more hands-on than others. I do know that scouts who saw him felt the same way, that he wouldn't ever hit for power with his current stance. The Cubs are going to take things slow with Pie and I believe they'll leave him alone in high Class A this year.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

I'm excited by all the left-handed pitching in the system. In the handbook, I saw that you ranked them Jones, Sisco, Hagerty, Sanchez, Marshall, Pinto, Pignatiello, Downs.

 

The Cubs put another lefty, Carlos Vasquez, on the 40 man roster this offseason. Do you not think as much of him as the Cubs do? Can you give us a quick scouting report?

 

Jim - thanks, as always, for doing this and the countless other prospect related chats and Q&As that you do. We met a few weeks ago at a Chicago fantasy baseball presentation, and I thought your information was the highlight of the day.

 

You seem to like Reynel Pinto more than Carlos Vazquez because of his deception and LOOGY potential, in addition to Vazquez' low K numbers. Any reason to think that Vazquez might add velocity as he fills out or do scouts see his ceiling as relatively low?

 

Thanks for the kind words. I gave the edge to Pinto specifically because he misses a lot more bats. Vazquez has solid average velocity and a lot of life on his fastball, but needs to develop some more command and better secondary pitches. It's easy to Rule 5 and keep a lefty pitcher, and a lot of the guys I rated ahead of him didn't have to be protected. So that's why the Cubs put him on the 40-man and not a lot of those other guys.

[Jim Callis]

Jim, thanks for taking the time. What kind of major leaguers do you see Kelton and Nic Jackson becoming? Will either be able to hold down a starting spot at the major league level?

 

I probably like Kelton a little more than most. I think he can hit .275 with 20 or so homers, but that's not a ton of production for a first baseman or corner outfielder. Jackson has been held back by injuries the last two years, but he could hit for the same average with less power but more speed and play center field. I think both can be big league regulars but don't see either as frontline players. With Corey Patterson around, I doubt Jackson gets much of a shot with the Cubs, and Kelton might not either.

[Jim Callis]

Hi Jim,

 

Ummm...this question is not about anyone in particular in the Cubs system but is maybe a naive one about the mechanics of baseball in general.

 

What are "simulated games" and how do they work? We often hear about a rehabing pitcher throwing a "simulated game" but I have never been clear on who is involved, how long they last, does the pitcher get breaks (like between innings) like a real game, do they bat, is the pitcher expected to work on all aspects of the game or just his mechanics, why are they better for a pitcher than thowing on the side or throwing batting practice or an inter-squad game or a regular spring-training or minor league game, do they simulate particular types of hitters (and if so, how if they don't have any of that type of hitter around) are simulated games ever done for position players?

 

Thanks for giving us a window into the backstage part of Major League Baseball.

 

I don't think the pitcher bats, but otherwise you're on the right track. The benefits of a simulated game are that you can hold one whenever you want and with fewer players, kind of combining a lot of the benefits of both a game and working on the side.

[Jim Callis]

Thanks for taking our questions Jim

 

In Sunday's Florida South-Sentinel, according to two National League sources, the Marlins and Cubs are discussing a possible trade of Juan Cruz for Shortstop Josh Wilson. In my opinion, Cruz is worth more than Wilson, what is your take on Wilson for Cruz. Is there any possibility of grabbing either Russ Adams or Aaron Hill for Cruz?

 

There was a rumor that the Cubs were discussing a Juan Cruz trade with Florida, involving a shortstop prospect named Josh Wilson. What can you tell us about Wilson?

 

When I saw that, I laughed. The Cubs can't possibly trade Juan Cruz for Josh Wilson. The Blue Jays are high on both Adams and Hill, plus they have a lot of pitchers they like, so I can't see Toronto doing that deal.

[Jim Callis]

Hi, Jim, thanks again for stopping by. My question's about a left-hander who dropped off this year's list, Aaron Krawiec. Had he stayed healthy rather than needing shoulder surgery, where do you think he'd have fit into the ranks of Cubs minor league lefties?

 

He had some interesting upside, but even before he got hurt the Cubs were getting a bit frustrated that his sum was less than total of his individual parts. I didn't rank him after 2002, when he was fully healthy.

[Jim Callis]

Hey Jim, thanks for taking some time out to do this, we appreciate it.

 

Could you rate the Cubs prospects best tools on the 20-80 scale? Power, Avg, best fastball, curve, slider etc? Thanks alot.

 

OK, these are all future grades rather than present grades. I tend to be conservative.

 

Best Hitter For Average--Brendan Harris, 60

Best Power--Ryan Harvey, 75

Fastest Baserunner--Dwaine Bacon, 80

Best Fastball--Angel Guzman, 70

Best Curveball--Bobby Brownlie, 75

Best Slider--Jared Blasdell, 60

Best Changeup--Angel Guzman, 65

Best Control--Chadd Blasko, 60

Best Defensive Catcher--Tony Richie, 60 (for catch-and-throw package)

Best Defensive Infielder--Ronny Cedeno, 60

Best Infield Arm--Ronny Cedeno, 65

Best Defensive Outfielder--Felix Pie, 70

Best Outfield Arm--Ryan Harvey, 65

[Jim Callis]

Thanks for taking our questions, Jim.

 

What more does Nolasco have to do to be rated higher? He skipped a level, posted great numbers and is still rated below longterm guys like Dopirak and Petrick. Why despite great numbers does he get constantly overlooked?

 

Thanks again for taking our questions.

 

When we rate prospects, it's a combination of ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Or risk vs. reward, if you will. Nolasco has solid but not special stuff. Dopirak and Petrick have considerably higher ceilings, though Nolasco is a safer pick. There are a lot of Nolascos in Class A or below, but fewer guys with a chance to do what Dopirak or Petrick might do. Nolasco could easily wind up being a better player; I have them all ranked in a group from 17-20, and there's not much difference between No. 17 and No. 20.

[Jim Callis]

What Cub minor leaguer do you think has the best chance of exceeding expectations, and who do you think is most likely to disappoint and fall short?

 

Hmmmm. I think Jason Wylie could exceed expectations, because he never gets much mention but could be a pretty nice big league reliever. That said, the Cubs do like him and have high hopes for him. I like Todd Wellemeyer, but I wonder if he'll live up to expectations with being bounced back and forth between Triple-A and Chicago and the rotation and bullpen. For all his potential, he hasn't posted an ERA lower than 4.70 since leaving Class A. And he's already 25.

[Jim Callis]

Sir

With the leftys in the Cubs system you rated-where would Willis rank?

 

Dontrelle Willis wouldn't be eligible because he has pitched more than 50 innings in the majors. But assuming he were eligible, he'd be the No. 1 prospect on the list based on his performance in the majors and minors. I love Angel Guzman, but I'd take Dontrelle Willis over him right now.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

Thanks for coming to our budding website about our beloved Cubbies. My question involves something you're so very involved with....prospects and the trading of prospects.

 

It is well known that the Cubs have a plethora of quality pitching in their minors, probably more than any other team. My question to you is what could be a hurdle to a team accepting some of our great young pitching for some of their great young position players? Why wouldn't a team like the Rangers or Devil Rays who are pitching prospect starved trade from their strength (position player prospects) to the Cubs for some of our pitching prospects? Is it safer for the Cubs to take the route the Yankees have perfected and trade their minor leaguers with potential to get proven MLB players?

 

I wish teams would trade prospects more because it makes things so much more interesting. Thanks.

 

Ryan

 

Teams generally don't trade prospects for prospects, unless it's a minor deal involving someone who has to be protected on a 40-man roster for someone who doesn't. I think in general, teams are more comfortable with the prospects they know. I agree, it would be a lot more interesting, but even with the teams you cite, I don't know if there's a great match. The Devil Rays wouldn't deal B.J. Upton or Delmon Young for any Cubs prospect (nor would I). And I don't see the Cubs dying to deal for Joey Gathright or Wes Bankston or Antonio Perez, Tampa Bay's next-best pitching prospects. With the Rangers, their top position guys are Adrian Gonzalez, Ramon Nivar and Vince Sinisi, who would be redundant with Derrek Lee and Corey Patterson around. And if you're talking about Texas' young big leaguers, such as Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira, the Rangers aren't going to trade them for pitching prospects.

[Jim Callis]

Thank you Mr Callis for your time. I have a question for you. Do you see the Cubs pushing Felix Pie to the big leagues in the same matter that they did Corey Patterson? Or do you feel they saw that the lost playing time delayed his progress and will thus take their time with Pie allowing him to develop at his own rate rather than based on the big league clubs needs? Again thanks.

 

I think the Cubs realize they pushed Patterson too hard and he wasn't as refined as he could have been when he got to Chicago. I think they'll move Pie very patiently, and with Patterson in Chicago, they don't need to rush another center fielder.

[Jim Callis]

Hello Jim, Can you give us your comments on Luis Montanez. As the 3rd overall pick he has been a real dissapointment. What are his chances of Luis even making a major league roster? Have the Cubs given up on him? Is he starting to lose hope himself? thanks

 

The Cubs haven't given up on him, but for a guy who's going to have to be an offensive second baseman, he hasn't shown nearly enough offense.

[Jim Callis]

Jim, thank-you for stopping by.

 

John Foster is a left reliver who's been getting some innings in Spring Training. What is your outlook on him?

 

He's decent but nothing special. He's just an extra lefty for the bullpen, not a late-inning guy.

[Jim Callis]

Jim, I'm a big fan of the work you do (as well as your initials!)

 

While I understand the adage that you can never have too much pitching, I fear that the Cubs may have taken it to an extreme due to the relative dearth of positional prospects in their system. Aside from the Ramos/Pena deal a few seasons back between the A's and the Rangers, it seems that only rarely are pitching prospects swapped for positional prospects.

 

My question is this. Do you see the imbalance in the Cub's system with regard to pitching vs. positional prospects as cause for concern? Have the Cubs just been off the mark with their positional draftees, or is it a question of poor developmental instuctors?

 

Thanks in advance for any response.

 

-JC

Fort Wayne, Indiana

 

I wouldn't indict the instructors. It all starts with talent, not that the Cubs have done a poor job of signing hitters. They have focused on hitters and pitchers, not excluding hitters at all, but in most cases the pitchers have worked out better. It's somewhat of a concern for two reasons. First, the attrition rate among pitchers is higher than it is among hitters. Five of the Cubs' top seven prospects and 22 of their top 30 are pitchers; their chances of winding up with successful big leaguers would be higher if those ratios were reversed. Second, their pitching staff is a lot stronger than their offense at the major league level. It's hard not to love that staff, but I think the lineup could hold them back this year. I see only two players who are sure to be above-average offensively at their positions (Derrek Lee, Sammy Sosa).

[Jim Callis]

Wecome back, Jim! I'm glad you’re again taking time from your undoubtedly busy schedule to share your insight with us!

 

My question is about another left-handed pitching prospect in the Cubs’ organaization, Rich Hill. It seems he has some absolutely filthy stuff judging by the outstanding strikeout rates he posted last year. Unfortunately, his control seems to be a major issue. What kind of odds do you put on Rich improving his command enough to be a good MLB pitcher… Will his career have a happy ending, ala Nuke LaLoosh, or will Hill be keeping Steve Dalkowski company in the annals of history?

 

We're talking about a guy who hasn't pitched above low A, so we won't know for a few years what the true answer will be. But my gut feeling is that if a guy has poor control at age 23, the odds that he'll have average control down the road are not good. He might be best off as a reliever. He's definitely worth watching, because he can be unhittable at times with his low-90s fastball and knee-buckling curveball.

[Jim Callis]

Living in the heart of MWL country, I take a lot of interest in the Lugnuts. I would like to know how do the extremely raw, RH pitching prospects probable for that team (Bay, Petrick, Marmol, Clanton, Mejia) compare to each other? i.e. Who has the best fastball? Makings of off-speed pitch? Control? Long-term projectability?

 

Long term, Petrick is the best. He also has the best fastball, right ahead of Marmol. Clanton's curveball is the best breaking pitch, but he hasn't been healthy. Bay has the best command of that group. They're all guys with plus arms who need a lot of polish at this point.

[Jim Callis]

:) Hi! Jim,

 

As Choi traded to Marlins, it's seems like there's no back up players left especially lefties for Lee when Lee's struggle or injured in case that I hope not. Do we have alternatives in our prospects in case? I mean proven prospect due to Baker used to prefer proven veteran players.

 

I think between David Kelton and Jason Dubois, the Cubs could get by at first base if Lee were hurt, though they wouldn't be as good and the Cubs couldn't afford to lose one of their two best hitters. Would Baker want to give one of those guys a shot? Maybe not. He might play Todd Walker at first base.