Pirates 2016 ZiPS is out

[David]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

 

Batters

Andrew McCutchen has produced between -15 and -20 fielding runs in center field over the past two seasons, according both to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). It’s not ideal, that, but it also represents basically all the flaws in McCutchen’s current profile. Indeed, ZiPS projects the Pirates’ center fielder to improve slightly on his WAR total this coming year in slightly fewer plate appearances.

 

Because his role was unclear entering 2015, Jung-ho Kang was omitted from the infield portion of last year’s Pittsburgh depth chart; this year, he’s the centerpiece of it. The algorithm in Dan Szymborski’s computer doesn’t account specifically for how Kang’s season ended with a torn meniscus and fractured tibia. What it does account for is how Kang recorded something less than a full complement of plate appearances. Projected to miss all or some of April, Kang’s projected plate-appearance total (494) seems reasonable.

 

The most notable weakness among the club’s positional projections appears to be first base, currently occupied by Michael Morse. It would be a surprise to find that position occupied by Morse on opening day.

Pitchers

Pittsburgh pitchers recorded the third-highest WAR figure among all 30 staffs in the league last year. A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ, whose first names are palindromes of each other, were responsible for roughly five of those approximately 22 wins. They’ve departed this offseason, however, replaced (for the moment) by Jon Niese and maybe Allen Webster. Niese and Webster are projected for only about two wins. Which is to say, three fewer. That seems dire. On the positive side, Burnett and Happ themselves were also projected for only two wins before the 2015 season — which is to say, before profiting from the tender ministrations of pitching coach Ray Searage.

 

The gold standard for bullpen construction over the last two seasons has been supplied by the Kansas City Royals. It’s notable, then, that Pittsburgh’s top-five relievers receive a better collective wins projection for 2016 than Kansas City’s. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson are responsible for much of that. Not inessential, however, is the newly acquired Juan Nicasio (101.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR), who signed for merely $3 million after being non-tendered by the Dodgers.

 

Bench/Prospects

Pittsburgh’s greatest holes currently reside in the infield and at the end of the starting rotation. Serendipitously, these are also the positions at which their two top prospects (by the projections) are most qualified. Alen Hanson didn’t receive a major-league call-up last year but did record 529 plate appearances at Triple-A Indianapolis in just his age-22 season. He’s forecast to provide roughly average major-league production this next season. Among the pitchers, right-hander Tyler Glasnow also ascended to Triple-A this past year — in this case, as just a 21-year-old. His plus raw stuff is complemented by an encouraging statistical projection (116.0 IP, 1.5 zWAR), as well.

 

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pittsburghers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Pirates-Depth.png

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*pats them on the head* that's a cute little team you have there. Good effort.

[Guest]

*pats them on the head* that's a cute little team you have there. Good effort.

 

I was waiting for something like this from you.