Minor League Discussion & Boxes 9-11-11

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't feel like I'm underrating his breaking ball and I don't feel like I'm letting year to year results impact my opinion in my comments.

 

1) I said his breaking ball was good ... when on, but it's too inconsistent. I've seen both breaking balls, and my gut feeling is that Kurcz's has better movement and he's more consistent, hence why I prefer his slider to Carpenter.

 

2) I think it's fair to say that Carpenter had control issues before this year. Last year, those comments are probably around here somewhere, I kept thinking that he could eventually right the ship enough that the control issues wouldn't be as big. Even if he righted the ship from this year, and I think he will, he'd still have control problems. They just wouldn't be gigantic, but they would still exist.

 

To put it another way, and I'm doing this without actual pitch f/x data so it's visual based, which has the potential for viewer bias, but I think Kurcz's fastball has more movement than Carpenter's 4 seamer, and I think Kurcz's slider is a good notch above Carpenter's, based on what I saw this year. It's certainly possible that the same viewer bias that led me to over-rate Carpenter last year a bit is at play here, and I may be over-rating Kurcz a tad. But Kurcz's fastball this year, and I'm pretty sure he has 2 as I saw nasty vertical movement, and then he had a pitch that was almost like a cutter that darted a ton, for lack of a better word.

 

Finally, I'm not sure why people think Kurcz is so far away. If he continues his strong season next year in AA (and that's a big if, as pen arms have volatility in performance, even in the inors), he could be ready for the bigs at some point in 2012. As a side note, I don't have either guy in my top 15 for my Cubs prospects, and am only debating Kurcz in the end of my top 20, so we're really talking about marginal differences in terms of ranking/rating for me.

 

You have to admit the quick turn around on Carpenter seems a little jumpy and as if it's been heavily influenced by an off year.

 

1 - I can agree with that, though I will point out that Kurcz relies more on his breaking pitch than Carpenter does (which is why he varies the break on his more, because he has to). Also, Carpenter's on it's best day is probably better with more velocity/power.

 

2 - Carpenter's walk rates in the two seasons before 2011 was 3.7. He did that over ~260 innings. Kurcz has the same walk rate (3.7), but in 109 career innings over his 2 seasons in the minors. IMO the jump in Carpenter's walk rate can be attribute to multiple things...adjusting to a new role...SSS (in total he threw just over 50 innings this year total)...Note that Kurcz's walk rate is coming at a lower level as a full time reliever from Day 1.

 

3 - Kurcz's fastball may have more movement than Carpenter's 4 seamer, but that's to be expected. How many 4 seamers with Carpenter's velocity will have much movement anyway? You yourself praised Carpenter's 2 seamer in this thread. So if that movement advantage even exists, I'm not sure its significant at all.

 

4 - If Carpenter had trouble breaking in this year, as did guys like Dolis, Cabrera (well not so much those two, though I like Dolis alot), Gaub, and Beliveau, I'm not sure how Kurcz will make the big leagues next year. That said I'll give him his due and say that of all these guys on the list he came into pro ball the most polished and mechanically ready, so I guess there's a shot.

 

Both should pretty easily make my top 20 for the Cubs, and Carpenter probably makes the top 10. Two really nice looking pen arms...

[toonsterwu]

1. I've never liked Carpenter as much in the pen as I did in the rotation, partly due to going to the 4-seamer more. I also never rate pen arms as highly as I do rotation arms, and that there largely explains why I don't think I would put Carpenter in my top 20. Last year, with everyone ranking Dolis high, I barely snuck him into my top 30, and I liked Dolis. (My intrigue with Dolis has gone down a bit this year, but I'll probably still keep him in the top 30).

 

2. The hope with Carpenter had always been that he could improve his below average control/command to the point where it was average. He went significantly backwards in that regards. Even getting back to his previous levels, however that translates to the pen, would mean that he would still have below average control

 

3. It's more than just the walk rate, though. In the past, when you watched him, he had some semblance of command. This year, when I saw him (which admittedly was early, prior to the demotion), things were bad. I'll agree that I think it's partly a byproduct of, as you note, shifting to a new role, but it is a concern. There tends to be excuses made for pen arms with poor control, since it isn't as big a factor as a starter, but for me, it's still troubling.

 

4. I still think you are underrating Kurcz's slider. Carpenter may have more power/velocity, but I'd take the slider with better movement, provided there's good velo behind it. I'll admit, I may have visual bias here, but having seen Carpenter's slider for 3 years running now, and seeing Kurcz's this year, I tend to think Kurcz's slider is above Carpenter's.

 

5. Wouldn't read too much into Carpenter's walk rate from 09 in A+/AA. What I recall, and it's been a couple years now, were that the batters at A+/AA were helping him out a bit, and I recall folks saying there simply wasn't enough of a book on him and guys were reacting. If anything, his walk rate in Low A that year was more in line with how he performed. That said, my memory could be shoddy. I think Kurcz not only had more control this year, but better command of his stuff. Walk rates are one of those things that are dangerous to read too much into in the minor league levels (both positive and negative, particularly in the low levels), but I will point out that Kurcz's walk rate out of the pen was under 3, and his command of his fastball/slider was good. It wouldn't surprise me if someone had the data/video if Kurcz's control problems as a starter came when he went to a non-existent change (okay, exaggerating a bit) and when he worked deeper into games, as guys had seen what he had. I'm too lazy to dig through the videos/stats to see, though.

 

Look, this isn't meant to bash Carpenter. I hope Carpenter proves me wrong and he's the closer for this club for several years. I really like Carpenter. The main reason I have him in the top 20-30 range is that I typically don't rank pen arms high unless I really, really like them, they have a good track record, and I believe they have a high enough ceiling to justify it. But that's me. I believe the highest Cubs pen arm that I ranked in recent years was Jose Ceda, and he was a better prospect than Carpenter is out of the pen (IMO). I just tend to think, right now, I'll take Kurcz over Carpenter.

 

But bringing up Cabrera brings up an interesting discussion. I'm not so sure Cabrera is definitely below Carpenter in my mind, as a pen arm. Problem is, he hasn't been utilized in that role. But ... Cabrera hits mid-90's as a starter (which Carpenter did as well), and I'm not so sure that Cabrera's slider doesn't have better movement than Carpenter's, while carrying solid velocity. For all the heat he took this year, the reason I've defend Cabrera a bit more than I have Jay Jackson (and I loved Jay Jackson 2 years ago, just loved his potential), is because I've seen Cabrera rip off nasty sliders with a fair amount of consistency. If Cabrera could just go full bore and reach back and let it rip ... could he be like Carpenter, and sit mid-90's and hit upper 90's consistently? I don't know, but it's an interesting thought to ponder, even though a lot of people seem down on Cabrera overall. Something to think about as we ramp up lists on prospects.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

2. The hope with Carpenter had always been that he could improve his below average control/command to the point where it was average. He went significantly backwards in that regards. Even getting back to his previous levels, however that translates to the pen, would mean that he would still have below average control

 

He went backwards after two years of taking it forward. That control is probably acceptable if he gets the K's and groundballs he's shown to be capable of getting in the minors.

 

3. It's more than just the walk rate, though. In the past, when you watched him, he had some semblance of command. This year, when I saw him (which admittedly was early, prior to the demotion), things were bad. I'll agree that I think it's partly a byproduct of, as you note, shifting to a new role, but it is a concern. There tends to be excuses made for pen arms with poor control, since it isn't as big a factor as a starter, but for me, it's still troubling.

 

Again, this year lasted all of 51 IP in a new role. I think that is a huge factor in all this. I doubt he's suddenly a 5.7 BB/9 guy after sitting firmly at 3.7 for 2 years and 260 IPs. It makes no sense, and considering this year's control problems came in a new, reduced role resulting in maybe 1/5 of the IP I just don't share the worry.

 

4. I still think you are underrating Kurcz's slider. Carpenter may have more power/velocity, but I'd take the slider with better movement, provided there's good velo behind it. I'll admit, I may have visual bias here, but having seen Carpenter's slider for 3 years running now, and seeing Kurcz's this year, I tend to think Kurcz's slider is above Carpenter's.

 

That's your opinion and you're fully entitled to having it. I think Kurcz command of his breaking pitch is ahead of Carpenter's, but I'd still take Carpenter's as an out pitch.

 

5. Wouldn't read too much into Carpenter's walk rate from 09 in A+/AA. What I recall, and it's been a couple years now, were that the batters at A+/AA were helping him out a bit, and I recall folks saying there simply wasn't enough of a book on him and guys were reacting. If anything, his walk rate in Low A that year was more in line with how he performed. That said, my memory could be shoddy. I think Kurcz not only had more control this year, but better command of his stuff. Walk rates are one of those things that are dangerous to read too much into in the minor league levels (both positive and negative, particularly in the low levels), but I will point out that Kurcz's walk rate out of the pen was under 3, and his command of his fastball/slider was good. It wouldn't surprise me if someone had the data/video if Kurcz's control problems as a starter came when he went to a non-existent change (okay, exaggerating a bit) and when he worked deeper into games, as guys had seen what he had. I'm too lazy to dig through the videos/stats to see, though.

 

Couldn't batters be helping out Kurcz in High A? How many kids at that level have seen such a polished breaking pitch? It's not as if he had better walk rates than '09 Carpenter either, even his pen numbers would come with the SSS caveat. Why would Carpenter go on to repeat the walk rate in 2010? Were they helping him out then too? If Kurcz has such strong control, command, and movement on his fastball why doesn't he generate more groundballs?

 

Look, this isn't meant to bash Carpenter. I hope Carpenter proves me wrong and he's the closer for this club for several years. I really like Carpenter. The main reason I have him in the top 20-30 range is that I typically don't rank pen arms high unless I really, really like them, they have a good track record, and I believe they have a high enough ceiling to justify it. But that's me. I believe the highest Cubs pen arm that I ranked in recent years was Jose Ceda, and he was a better prospect than Carpenter is out of the pen (IMO). I just tend to think, right now, I'll take Kurcz over Carpenter.

 

I'm not taking it as bashing Carpenter. I'm just disagreeing with your stance on him. I hope he becomes the pitcher he's capable of being (a high end, high leverage pen arm) and he does it with the Cubs. Consider that he's not a pen arm, but a talented pitcher who isn't starting because of questions of stamina and durability due to some early year arm issues. He has a track record of being a good pitcher, and a longer one of being a highly talented pitcher.

 

I'm not sure what Jose Ceda has to do with anything here tbh.

 

But bringing up Cabrera brings up an interesting discussion. I'm not so sure Cabrera is definitely below Carpenter in my mind, as a pen arm. Problem is, he hasn't been utilized in that role. But ... Cabrera hits mid-90's as a starter (which Carpenter did as well), and I'm not so sure that Cabrera's slider doesn't have better movement than Carpenter's, while carrying solid velocity. For all the heat he took this year, the reason I've defend Cabrera a bit more than I have Jay Jackson (and I loved Jay Jackson 2 years ago, just loved his potential), is because I've seen Cabrera rip off nasty sliders with a fair amount of consistency. If Cabrera could just go full bore and reach back and let it rip ... could he be like Carpenter, and sit mid-90's and hit upper 90's consistently? I don't know, but it's an interesting thought to ponder, even though a lot of people seem down on Cabrera overall. Something to think about as we ramp up lists on prospects.

 

I've heard good things about Cabrera's stuff, and he's another interesting arm. They're probably using him as a starter in the minors to work on his pitches and his long term durability. Many top relievers work starter innings in the minors for a multitude of reasons and I think the Cubs ultimately see Cabrera as a starter. He hasn't performed as well as Carpenter IMO, and I actually like Dolis a little better. IMO the top three relief arms are Carpenter, Beliveau, and Kurcz.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Yeah...long posts. Lets agree to disagree. Seems like just a difference in how we look at players.

[toonsterwu]

I only brought up Ceda because I didn't know if this was a critique on how I was viewing Carpenter or how I was ranking him. Ceda was the only pure pen guy that I ever placed in the top 15 in recent years, to the best of my memory.

 

Anyhow, I'll leave the rest of that (on Carp vs. Kurcz) alone.

 

As for Cabrera, my hunch/what I've heard is that the organization wants him to succeed as a starter, but has long thought he would probably end up in the pen. His changeup simply hasn't developed enough, and he has had struggles against lefties as he simply doesn't have enough weapons to challenge lefties over multiple innings. Under Hendry/Wilken/Fleita, my guess would've been that they would've tried to keep him in the rotation in 2012, at least, at the start. I actually think he'll probably settle in relatively well as a starter in 2012 Iowa (just a hunch), but that doesn't change the fact that I just don't think he has the weapons, barring improvement this offseason, to be a long-run starter.

 

My top three closer/late inning prospects (and I'll only utilize guys who have been in the pen the majority of the time, leaving Cabrera out, as he'd be in my top 3) ... I think I'd go Kurcz, Carpenter, and ... gut instinct on the third one, but Hatley. I've been troubled for awhile with Dolis' inconsistent slider. He has the makings of a guy who could be a dominant late inning arm, but I said it earlier in the year after seeing him, but something just feels off about him as a closer type of arm. I guess, when I see pen arms, I'd like to see them get guys to whiff a bit more. Could never put a finger to what felt off, though, as I knew going in that his slider was inconsistent. If the slider comes around, and he gets guys to whiff more, dunno.

 

I'm not sure why I have Hatley third out of pen prospects who have been largely utilized in the pen so far. I know a lot of folks think that he's going to really take off in AA next year. The stuff's there to be a late inning arm. One of the rare times I'll go gut instinct on a prospect, but that might be a bigger reflection on my feeling on other guys than it is a reflection on Hatley. My sleeper pen prospect would be Charles Thomas, but he's too raw and too far away right now. I really like Frank Batista and I wouldn't rule him out of this discussion yet, but he has to be sharper with the slider to have a chance to be a late inning arm, IMO.

 

I'm wanting to see another year of Beliveau in the upper levels before really believing that he's a possible closer level arm, and not more of a plus-LOOGY type, a guy who is excellent in situational roles and a possible setup type. I know a lot of folks are jumping on him as a possible late inning arm, like a lot of folks jumped on John Gaub in 2009. I'm not there yet, although I think 2011 Beliveau is better than 2009 Gaub. Just to be clear, in terms of rankings, of the guys noted above, the last time I worked on it, it'd be Kurcz (borderline top 20 right now), Beliveau (borderline top 20 right now), Carpenter (20-30 right now), Cabrera (20-30 right now), Dolis (borderline top 30), Hatley (borderline top 40).

 

As a side note, as much as I've defended Kurcz as the guy that I think is the best pen prospect (late innings/closer) in the system, I can also see none of the guys in this system developing into a solid late inning arm. It's very possible that this group is a bunch of power-throwing middle-relief, at best, setup types, as I can find enough faults with each guy to think that they might not develop into a consistent late inning guy/closer.