Re: Brandon Guyer

[Guest]

The number of players with 2000 PA's before age 25 is very slim, and doesn't make a very good point of comparison for the "maybe he's as good as he's gonna be" argument.

[CubsWin]

 

I think that's overpaying. I'd be surprised if Colvin doesn't have quite a bit of value at the moment

 

Times maybe different now I realize, but, in terms of trade value how do you think Colvin compares to Brant Brown

before he was traded for Lieber? (Were there other players involved???)

Brown was 27 when he had his good year with an .850 OPS in '98. Colvin is OPSing .831 as a 24 year old. So I would think Colvin's trade value would be quite a bit higher than Brown's in '98.

 

And it was a straight up deal for Lieber.

[CubsWin]

The number of players with 2000 PA's before age 25 is very slim, and doesn't make a very good point of comparison for the "maybe he's as good as he's gonna be" argument.

Agreed. He could've been in the minors last year as a 23 year old when he hit 51 doubles and 21 HRs. I wonder what the AAA or AA equivalent of that kind of production would be? Does anyone know of a way to find that out?

 

And it's not like he hasn't shown improvement since coming up as a 21 year old rookie. That year he had a 108 OPS+. Last year he finished the season with a 124 OPS+, and so far this season he is at 130 OPS+. The Royals would have been pretty dumb to have that growth and production all occuring in the minors.

[sandbergcubs]

why hasnt guyer played in the last few days?

[CubsWin]

why hasnt guyer played in the last few days?

I was wondering the same thing. I'm guessing some kind of injury. He's not on the 7-day DL according to the Smokies website and I couldn't find anything with a Google search. Don't know.

[CubsWin]

Well, he's back and with a vengeance. 3-for-4 with a double and a triple and 2 runs scored. He's now batting .331/.382/.575 on the year and an off-the-hook ridiculous .426 in 129 at bats since July 1st with 18 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs and 9 stolen bases against 1 caught stealing.

 

Guyer is 5 months younger than Tyler Colvin, but 9 months older than Colvin was when entering AA. Colvin was 23, about to turn 24 when he had his hot month in AA last season. Colvin hit .342 avg in 117 at bats last August with 7 doubles, 5 triples and 5 HRs.

 

How much does BABIP come into play here. Guyer's BABIP for July and August are very high, but he's hitting .426, so they have to be, right? Does that mean that he's been very lucky or just smashing the ball? He had 20% line drives in July and 22.5% in so far in August. Someone put this into perspective for me.

[davearm2]

Well, he's back and with a vengeance. 3-for-4 with a double and a triple and 2 runs scored. He's now batting .331/.382/.575 on the year and an off-the-hook ridiculous .426 in 129 at bats since July 1st with 18 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs and 9 stolen bases against 1 caught stealing.

 

Guyer is 5 months younger than Tyler Colvin, but 9 months older than Colvin was when entering AA. Colvin was 23, about to turn 24 when he had his hot month in AA last season. Colvin hit .342 avg in 117 at bats last August with 7 doubles, 5 triples and 5 HRs.

 

How much does BABIP come into play here. Guyer's BABIP for July and August are very high, but he's hitting .426, so they have to be, right? Does that mean that he's been very lucky or just smashing the ball? He had 20% line drives in July and 22.5% in so far in August. Someone put this into perspective for me.

The rule of thumb I've seen is that a "normal" BABIP is LD% + .140.

 

So a guy hitting 20% line drives should be expected to have a BABIP of .340.

[Guest]

There's nothing in Guyer's overall production at AA that suggests it's overly fluky. His .350+ BABIP may be a little high, but even if you normalize that you're still looking at a guy OPSing about .900.

[craig]

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

 

Not sure I trust their calculations much, but minorleague slits calculates Guyer to have over a 100-point OPS "luck" factor and over 40 BA points of luck. Probably at least some reality to it that he's been lucky.

 

Still, I'm interested. He doesn't seem to have the obvious weaknesses that some prospects do. He doesn't appear to be especially great at anything. But by report he outfields well; he throws pretty well; he runs pretty well; his base-stealing suggests that he runs fairly smartly/instinctively; he hustles and plays hard; his K-rate (15%?) is quite modest for a guy slugging .575; his HR/K ratio is nice (11HR/46K, that's not a batting-average killer); and while his walk-rate is low, it's not prohibitively horrendous.

 

Instinct is to always push anybody who doesn't look like a 40-HR guy into center, but I don't think that's happening for Guyer (or Colvin) other than on a utility-backup basis.

 

But there just aren't really all that many LFers or RFers in the majors these days who are .850+ OPS guys. If Guyer was to make it as an .800-.850 OPS guy who played good corner OF and ran well, that could be more of an asset than just boring. Likely, no. Possible, possibly.

 

The other thing I wonder about is his HR power. I've gotten the impression that he doesn't scout as a HR guy. But, that was always true with Colvin as well, his minor-league numbers were always built on his power; nobody talked about him as a power guy; but now he's living off his power in the majors just as he did in the minors. They say Guyer is built like a linebacker. When a guy built like a linebacker has 11 HR in 300 AB, and is slugging .575, I'm not sure I understand why he's scouted as an anti-power guy? Well, OK, obviously his 3 HR last year are a good reason! But if he's built strong, can hit the ball, and has 11 HR's in 300 AB this year, I'm not sure why it would seem unfeasible for him to be a 15-25 HR guy if he was starting every day in Wrigley? Again, not likely, because things rarely work out that well for players. But hardly impossible.

 

Last thought: I wonder how meaningful the minor league line-drive data is, as pertains to the "luck" factor. There are a lot of hard-hit balls that classify as "grounders" that hit the ground once before they're in the outfield. And there seem to be quite a few balls that classify as "liners" that don't seem very fast or hard-hit to me. I'm sometimes a bit cautious in over-interpreting some of the minor league stats.

[davell]

How about Chris Heisey as a comp for Guyer?

[CubsWin]

Guyer continues to destroy, and I mean destroy AA pitching. He went 2-for-5 tonight with a HR and a walk. He's now hitting .438/.460/.790 since the all-star break with exactly half of his 46 hits going for extra bases (15 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HRs in 105 ABs).

 

If I were Hendry, he'd be getting a September call up.

[CubsWin]

why hasnt guyer played in the last few days?

I was wondering the same thing. I'm guessing some kind of injury. He's not on the 7-day DL according to the Smokies website and I couldn't find anything with a Google search. Don't know.

Finally got the explanation. It was pink eye.

 

http://chicago.comcastsportsnet.com/08/18/10/Smokies-outfielder-Guyer-overcoming-misf/blog_landing_default_v3.html?blockID=292726&feedID=6200

[CubsWin]

I know by posting this I'm assuring that it will never reach 19, but Brandon has an 18 game hitting streak.

 

I was reading that article linked in the post above and when you look at how his season has gone injury wise, he's numbers this season would likely be even better. He started off the year hitting .283/.427/.467 with a .308 BABIP in April. Then he jammed his shoulder sliding head first into 2B on April 28th, apparently he's kind of a hustle freak. He had injured the same shoulder in his senior year at Virginia. He was out about two weeks, came back for two games (and went 3 for 14) and missed the rest of the month.

 

When he returned, he spent the month of June getting his stroke back. In 26 June games, he hit .250/.301/.500 with a .250 BABIP. So when most of us looked at his line at the end of June, we were disappointed and might have been tempted to write him off as a 24 year old in AA. I know I was. But his last month and a half and a closer look at how his season unfolded have greatly changed my mind.

[CubsWin]

I know by posting this I'm assuring that it will never reach 19, but Brandon has an 18 game hitting streak.

Sure enough...

 

Sorry Brandon, my bad.