Stolen Base break-even point

[TruffleShuffle]

I know the stolen base break-even point is around 72%, but i was wondering today some other things are taken into account.

 

for example, if a pitcher tries to pick off a runner and throws the ball away, the runner moves up at least one and maybe two bases. I know this doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen sometimes. Obviously with a baserunner like jacoby ellsbury on first there's a better chance of this happening, while the pitcher doesn't throw over to first very often if prince fielder is the baserunner.

 

there's also the loss of focus on the batter. if the pitcher is rushing his delivery or simply not concentrating as much on the batter, i would think that there's a better chance that he'd throw a poor pitch with a fast runner on base, and that could result in better results for the batter.

 

on the other hand, jacoby ellsbury is more likely to be picked off - the type of pickoff where he's leading off too far and doesn't get a caught stealing.

 

i'm just wondering if these things can be properly accounted for in a study, rather than simply the expected runs with the runner moving up an extra base versus the loss of expected runs because he is caught stealing.

[Guest]

I know the stolen base break-even point is around 72%, but i was wondering today some other things are taken into account.

 

for example, if a pitcher tries to pick off a runner and throws the ball away, the runner moves up at least one and maybe two bases. I know this doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen sometimes. Obviously with a baserunner like jacoby ellsbury on first there's a better chance of this happening, while the pitcher doesn't throw over to first very often if prince fielder is the baserunner.

 

there's also the loss of focus on the batter. if the pitcher is rushing his delivery or simply not concentrating as much on the batter, i would think that there's a better chance that he'd throw a poor pitch with a fast runner on base, and that could result in better results for the batter.

 

on the other hand, jacoby ellsbury is more likely to be picked off - the type of pickoff where he's leading off too far and doesn't get a caught stealing.

 

i'm just wondering if these things can be properly accounted for in a study, rather than simply the expected runs with the runner moving up an extra base versus the loss of expected runs because he is caught stealing.

Back in 2004, I went into a lot of detail to look at the effect of Pierre & Castillo on Florida's offense. I looked at the following hitters' performance when those guys were on first versus other bases versus bases empty.

 

iirc, there was little difference, but that guys actually hit slightly worse when the speedy guys were on base.

[Mephistopheles]

You're not the first person to think of this you know. Stolen base break-even point varies from 25% to close to 95%.

[TruffleShuffle]

You're not the first person to think of this you know.

 

i never said i was. i was just curious whether these other things have been accounted for, or could be accounted for, in studies.

[nilodnayr]

I know the stolen base break-even point is around 72%, but i was wondering today some other things are taken into account.

 

for example, if a pitcher tries to pick off a runner and throws the ball away, the runner moves up at least one and maybe two bases. I know this doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen sometimes. Obviously with a baserunner like jacoby ellsbury on first there's a better chance of this happening, while the pitcher doesn't throw over to first very often if prince fielder is the baserunner.

 

there's also the loss of focus on the batter. if the pitcher is rushing his delivery or simply not concentrating as much on the batter, i would think that there's a better chance that he'd throw a poor pitch with a fast runner on base, and that could result in better results for the batter.

 

on the other hand, jacoby ellsbury is more likely to be picked off - the type of pickoff where he's leading off too far and doesn't get a caught stealing.

 

i'm just wondering if these things can be properly accounted for in a study, rather than simply the expected runs with the runner moving up an extra base versus the loss of expected runs because he is caught stealing.

Back in 2004, I went into a lot of detail to look at the effect of Pierre & Castillo on Florida's offense. I looked at the following hitters' performance when those guys were on first versus other bases versus bases empty.

 

iirc, there was little difference, but that guys actually hit slightly worse when the speedy guys were on base.

 

THT did a more robust study a few years ago as well and pretty much found the same thing.