Colin Wyers: 2009 Marcels projections

[tangotiger]

In 2007, I asked fans from the blogosphere to give me their forecasts for players on their 40-man rosters.

 

I also had in hand the forecasts for Marcel and seven other forecasting systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, Shandler, Bill James, Pete Palmer, MGL, Chone).

 

The Marcels finished right in the middle, right alongside the Community Forecasts. And there was very little separating these two from the leaders (Chone, MGL, PECOTA I believe). I reported all results and published all data on my blog.

 

To the extent that you want to call Marcel useless for being boring, you have to call all other forecasting systems useless for being {insert adjective}. Maybe some systems are too extreme, and others are too biased against young players. Etc, etc.

 

The main point of Marcel is strictly to provide the minimum competence level against which all other forecasts (including those by the fine people of the blogosphere through Community Forecasts) are judged. And to that end, the results of all forecasting sysems are very dull.