Re: So they've finally figured out Kosuke.

[ctcf]

we can't afford to sit around and lose games because he's not hitting. when soriano comes back, put derosa out in RF and send fukudome down to mesa or something to get straightened out.

 

Since May 4th, Fukudome has hit .245 with a .356 OBP, slugged .365, for a whopping .722 OPS. That is what he has done since May 4th. That is a long time. That's not "oh, he's hit a rough 10 day patch."

 

I don't understand the reasoning behind some of the knee-jerk defenses in this topic. A .722 OPS for a corner outfielder since May 4th is not good enough.

 

Since June 4 he's hit .238 with a .340 OBP, slugged .369, for a .709 OPS, with 32 strikeouts in 122 ABs.

 

Isn't there reasonable cause for concern here?

You're right, it's not a 10 game rough patch. It's a 14 game rough patch.

 

Again:

3/31 - 5/3 - .348/.443/.500

5/4 - 5/26 - .206/.329/.265

5/27 - 6/28 - .315/.423/.500

6/28 - 7/12 - .170/.254/.245

 

He's having his second slump as a big leaguer. Before this one, he was hitting .301/.407/.441. It's not a huge deal.

 

Now excuse me while I have to go ice my knee after hitting it on my desk.

 

Calm down, Jon.

[badnews]

Your Honor, I do object.

 

People say that if you expect Fukudome to do better than say, Brian Giles 2006-2007 (not even that - Brian Giles has his home park as an excuse and makes way better contact) than your expectations were unreasonable.

 

But Your Honor, I would stipulate that it was this very forum that was instrumental in building expectations.

 

Because now we seem to pretending that all of those "Dude, PECOTA/Bill James projects Fukudome for an .870-.900 OPS!!!!11!!! Awesome!!!!" topics didn't exist?

 

I hope he doesn't end up with Greg Zaun's or Brad Wilkerson's 2005 rate numbers and people say "It's okay because his OBP is 100 points above his average."

 

I'm probably more worried than I would be because every time I see him hit he's having a really ugly AB.

[Fred Hornkohl]

For what it's worth........

 

Fukudome           AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
03/31 - 04/21      67   14   22    4    1    1    9   14   13  0.328  0.444  0.463  0.907  0.396  4.69  0.116  0.267
04/22 - 05/12      70   12   22    6    1    1    7   11   12  0.314  0.402  0.471  0.874  0.368  3.95  0.088  0.150
05/13 - 06/01      64    9   17    3    0    1    5   10   11  0.266  0.365  0.359  0.724  0.308  4.18  0.099  0.121
06/02 - 06/22      62   15   17    3    0    2   11   13   13  0.274  0.403  0.419  0.822  0.319  4.51  0.128  0.290
06/24 - 07/13      63    8   13    1    0    2    4    7   21  0.206  0.286  0.317  0.603  0.275  4.63  0.079  0.061

Home              161   38   56   11    1    5   23   29   36  0.348  0.450  0.522  0.972  0.425  4.34  0.102  0.202
Road              165   20   35    6    1    2   13   26   34  0.212  0.316  0.297  0.613  0.256  4.43  0.104  0.141

Day               158   26   46    8    1    3   16   25   36  0.291  0.388  0.411  0.799  0.361  4.26  0.097  0.157
Nite              168   32   45    9    1    4   20   30   34  0.268  0.378  0.405  0.783  0.315  4.50  0.110  0.190

vs Left            76   11   21    4    1    0   10   13   17  0.276  0.374  0.355  0.729  0.356  4.64  0.097  0.200
vs Right          250   47   70   13    1    7   26   42   53  0.280  0.386  0.424  0.810  0.332  4.31  0.106  0.162

batting 1st        50   10   13    2    0    1    5    7   16  0.260  0.362  0.360  0.722  0.364  4.81  0.102  0.250
batting 2nd        45    4    6    1    0    1    3    5   14  0.133  0.220  0.222  0.442  0.167  4.45  0.087  0.080
batting 4th        11    1    3    2    0    0    3    1    2  0.273  0.308  0.455  0.762  0.333  3.69  0.035  0.333
batting 5th       193   39   61   10    2    5   23   38   32  0.316  0.427  0.466  0.893  0.359  4.30  0.111  0.182
batting 6th        22    3    6    1    0    0    2    3    5  0.273  0.360  0.318  0.678  0.353  4.08  0.087  0.125
batting 7th         1    0    1    1    0    0    0    1    0  1.000  1.000  2.000  3.000  1.000  5.50  0.000  0.000
batting 9th         4    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    1  0.250  0.250  0.250  0.500  0.333  5.75  0.000  0.000

Leading off        70   19   18    3    1    1    1   11   14  0.257  0.366  0.371  0.737  0.309  4.51  0.109  0.000
Pinch hitting       5    1    2    1    0    0    0    1    1  0.400  0.500  0.600  1.100  0.500  5.67  0.100  0.000
bases empty       176   30   45    5    2    3    3   24   42  0.256  0.348  0.358  0.706  0.321  4.50  0.093  0.000
runners on        150   28   46   12    0    4   33   31   28  0.307  0.421  0.467  0.887  0.356  4.26  0.114  0.174
scoring pos        82   17   26    7    0    3   31   20   18  0.317  0.442  0.512  0.955  0.377  4.46  0.125  0.237

season totals     326   58   91   17    2    7   36   55   70  0.279  0.383  0.408  0.791  0.337  4.39  0.104  0.174

[Jon]

3/31 to 5/1 - 121 PAs, .353/.455/.500, .102 IsoD, .147 IsoP

5/2 to 5/26 - 93 PAs, .218/.326/.295, .108 IsoD, .077 IsoP

5/27 to 6/27 - 111 PAs, .315/.423/.500, .108 IsoD, .185 IsoP

6/28 to 7/19 - 69 PAs, .161/.235/.226, .074 IsoD, .065 IsoP

7/20 to 7/29 - 36 PAs, .333/.444/.500, .111 IsoD, .167 IsoP

 

Two things really jump out. The first is that if he stays hot for another week or two, a chart of his OPS would make a very nice "W" shape. The second, though, is that his IsoD has been remarkably consistent if you take away those 69 PAs from his most recent slump. That surprised me, as it wasn't my perception.

 

The strikeouts certainly shot up during his last slump. He struck out 22 times, or 32% of his trips to the plate. That was more than double his 15.4% K rate of the season leading up to that slump.

 

Note that these charts don't include tonight's performance.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_4_20080728.png

 

During that last slump, he was also hitting more balls in the air, which I'm sure everyone noticed, as well:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_9_20080728.png

 

Then there's what to make of his BABIP:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_7_20080728.png

 

He was a bit fortunate early on and then a little unlucky at some point after that, probably. But the one to really watch is still his LD%. He needs to get that back up.