Zambrano 0-4 since signing

[haltz]

I don't get a lot of what you have written but I don't get this the most, "If Matt Murton's true OBA talent is .360". How do you know what his true level of anything is?

What? I just said that you don't. You know that it's probably closer to .360 than .400 or .320. But the thing is that he has to have one, even if we can never completely nail it down. He has to be X amount good at getting on base. This has to have a value relative to the rest of the league.

 

Truth lies is how he has preformed in the past. Eveything is else is a projection and every projection gets better with more data, that obvious.

Three years and a regression will get you a basic projection. It's the same thing. Good luck on balls in play will change a players OPS, a good projection will assume average for things which luck is involved and not skill.

 

ERA, ERA+, and other descriptive statistics are rooted in reality. VORP, Pyth. record, etc. are inferential models whose main value lies in their predicitve utility. And that predictive utility lies in how much they actually reflect reality.

The components for all those stats are taken from game events. Earned Runs will tell you how many runs crossed the plate that were earned. This is influenced by the pitcher, the defense, the opposing lineups, the park, etc. FIP tells you how good the pitcher was with K, BB, and HR. Pick what you want to describe and use the stat that describes it.

[Ender]

If runs scored is worthless then you're saying that pythagorean record as a predictor is worthless. Do you really believe this?

 

Not worthless but certainly weaker than the W3 stat which uses expected runs rather than actual runs.

 

ERA shows very weak correlation from year to year for a pitcher, FIP shows a much stronger correlation and pulls out variables that don't belong to the pitcher like fielding etc. Its still not the greatest stat though, something like Shandler's xERA is probably the best.

 

Take a look at Joe Blanton once. He pitched better in 2006 than he did in 2005 from pretty much every stat he can control but his ERA was over a run higher that year. The reason his ERA was so high in 2006 was BABIP and LOB% which are things pitchers have little control over and are predictors of his true talent level, that combined with a good bit of luck in BABIP in 2005.

 

The difference is that things like K/9, bb/9, GB% etc are predictable, they correspond year to year and most pitchers don't see big changes in them. ERA is a result that the pitcher only partially controls, it is all over the place and you really cannot predict it year to year. If you want to see the results of his pitching you look at ERA, if you want to predict future results you look at indicators.

[Soul]

If runs scored is worthless then you're saying that pythagorean record as a predictor is worthless. Do you really believe this?

 

Not worthless but certainly weaker than the W3 stat which uses expected runs rather than actual runs.

 

ERA shows very weak correlation from year to year for a pitcher, FIP shows a much stronger correlation and pulls out variables that don't belong to the pitcher like fielding etc. Its still not the greatest stat though, something like Shandler's xERA is probably the best.

 

Take a look at Joe Blanton once. He pitched better in 2006 than he did in 2005 from pretty much every stat he can control but his ERA was over a run higher that year. The reason his ERA was so high in 2006 was BABIP and LOB% which are things pitchers have little control over and are predictors of his true talent level, that combined with a good bit of luck in BABIP in 2005.

 

The difference is that things like K/9, bb/9, GB% etc are predictable, they correspond year to year and most pitchers don't see big changes in them. ERA is a result that the pitcher only partially controls, it is all over the place and you really cannot predict it year to year. If you want to see the results of his pitching you look at ERA, if you want to predict future results you look at indicators.

 

Thanks for the explanation.

 

Is there anything out there that's reliable other than pitcher abuse points that could be used to predict an arm injury? Some pitchers can just take the abuse, it's not common but some can do it.

[weis21]

In my opinion, Zambrano pitches with more "momentum" then any other pitcher I've seen. He seems to go through slumps much like a batter that is playing everyday. It could be his demeanor where when he's good he thinks he is unhittable and when he's bad he is really hard on himself. I'm hoping its just mechanics, maybe his arm slot, and that he will get confidence and pitching well shortly. He's desperately needed if we make it to the playoffs.