Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-24-2007

[Guest]

You holding off on Vitters until you see more?

 

Yep. My two big concerns are:

 

1) How good is his pitch recognition?

2) Can he stick at 3B?

 

I'll point out that there's a large gap between the two. I'm hoping he either posts a reasonable IsoD or doesn't strike out so much as to cause some of the people who frequent this board to have a conniption, but that remains to be seen.

 

I'll add that I'm not overly thrilled with this year's crop of prospects compared to previous seasons. Colvin will probably get my nod as #1 overall, but I really don't have a good feeling about him.

Obviously, it is yet to be seen how good he will be as a pro ball player and I can understand knocking him down the rankings as a result.

 

Big question in my mind is where to rank Soto. :?

[Guest]

1. Vitters - the scouts thought he was a consensus top-5 pick for a reason

2. Colvin

3. Gallagher

4. Samardzija

5. Soto

 

Samardzija and Soto are tricky. As is, obviously, Veal. I change my mind on 15-30 daily. Just like last season. Heh.

[Outshined_One]

Big question in my mind is where to rank Soto. :?

 

Top 10, with a prospect profile that includes bashing Jim Hendry, numerous exclamation points and question marks, and maybe even a few f-bombs sprinkled around for emphasis?

[Guest]

Peoria Journal-Star[/url]"]"(I) wanted to do my job and go six or seven innings," Hernandez said through Chiefs hitting coach Julio Garcia as translator. "That was my mind-set from the get-go."

 

Hernandez picked up his first strikeout with a nasty called third strike on Ramon Santana. The breaking ball caught the inside corner for the second out of the game.

 

The next batter, Wilson Ramos, homered to right of straightaway center field but Hernandez then struck out Eli Tintor.

 

"I made a mistake and forgot about it," Hernandez said. "I just went out and made pitches."

 

The only other time Hernandez was in trouble came in the third when he allowed a pair of doubles and the other run.

 

Hernandez struck out at least one batter in every inning but the third. Even then, he helped his own cause by picking Santana off second to end the inning.

 

Hernandez finished with nine strikeouts, a career high, and did not walk a batter.

 

"Overall I think he was spotting his pitches well," catcher Matt Canepa said. "He kept the ball down and was being aggressive with his fastball. That's what they teach."

 

...

 

With Casey Lambert warming up to pitch the seventh, Hernandez struck out the side in the sixth. As his night ended, it looked like he was just beginning.

 

"That's been the pattern," Hernandez said. "I start out a little slow and then I get stronger as the night goes on."

[Guest]

1. Vitters - the scouts thought he was a consensus top-5 pick for a reason

2. Colvin

3. Gallagher

4. Samardzija

5. Soto

 

Samardzija and Soto are tricky. As is, obviously, Veal. I change my mind on 15-30 daily. Just like last season. Heh.

Even with the breakout season, I still don't see Soto as a potential difference maker in the bigs. Thinking this through by level, here are the guys from each team that I'm tracking (I'm probably going to miss a couple guys):

 

Soto

EP

Gallagher

Petrick

Hart

Colvin

Reynolds

Veal

Avery

Shark

Clevenger

Dope

Castillo

Barney

Hernandez

Ceda

Dolis

Donaldson

Thomas

Rosa

Burke

Rundle

Huseby

Tolentino

Cabrera

Acosta

Carlos Perez

Marwin Gonzalez

Vitters

Oswaldo Martinez

Cedric Redmond

Larry Suarez

 

The guys in bold are very likely to be in my top 10 at the moment, though that might change with some reflection. That's also not meant to be in any ranked order.

[Guest]

Nice list, Tim. Are you not expecting much out of Atkins like some others or did you forget him in your list?

 

BTW, I'd definitely have Roquet on that list if you have Avery.

[Outshined_One]

Obviously Colvin has a lot of work to do in the BB:K ratio, but overall I think he's had a pretty good season for his first full year in professional baseball.

 

BB:K ratio is meaningless, as far as I'm concerned. I've debated throwing out Ks altogether as a useful indicator of future success/failure, but I haven't quite gotten to that point yet. Considering I don't pay much (if any) attention to Ks in the majors, it makes sense.

 

The biggest problem I have with Colvin is the fact that, in just under 470 PAs this season, Colvin has walked 14 times. Roughly speaking, for every 33-34 PAs Colvin has, he takes a single walk. I have trouble wrapping my head around that number. Seriously, that's lunacy.

 

People point out names like Jeff Francoeur and Vlad Guerrero as examples of guys to whom Colvin might compare favorably. However, in his minor league career, Francoeur drew a walk once roughly every 16 plate appearances. Guerrero, on the other hand, drew a walk once roughly every 11 plate appearances while in the minor leagues. Those comparisons don't work.

 

Cripes, even IsoD/OBP whipping boys like Jacque Jones and Juan Pierre have notably better walk rates than Colvin.

 

I'm worried about Colvin. Maybe he'll make it to the majors, but if his pitch recognition skills are truly this bad, he might get eaten alive.

[Guest]

Nice list, Tim. Are you not expecting much out of Atkins like some others or did you forget him in your list?

 

BTW, I'd definitely have Roquet on that list if you have Avery.

I inadvertently switched avery & Atkins. :oops:

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not worried about Colvin because I decided last year that he'd never be anything more than a fourth outfielder. Now Felix Pie, there's a guy I'm actually worried about, because I expect more than that from him, and his performance at the big league level, plus his strike zone judgment, are worrisome.

[Skyballer]

I'm not worried about Colvin because I decided last year that he'd never be anything more than a fourth outfielder. Now Felix Pie, there's a guy I'm actually worried about, because I expect more than that from him, and his performance at the big league level, plus his strike zone judgment, are worrisome.

or lack there of

[Guest]

Nice list, Tim. Are you not expecting much out of Atkins like some others or did you forget him in your list?

 

BTW, I'd definitely have Roquet on that list if you have Avery.

I inadvertently switched avery & Atkins. :oops:

 

Haha, gotcha. I'd definitely put Roquet on the list...mid-90s FB, plus slider. He looks like a great relief prospect.

 

A couple other intriguing (imo) names to track - Cliff Andersen, James Russell, Jake Renshaw and Jeffry Antigua (DSL).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Now Felix Pie, there's a guy I'm actually worried about, because I expect more than that from him, and his performance at the big league level, plus his strike zone judgment, are worrisome.

 

Jose Reyes

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I started the Robert Hernandez bandwagon, TT. I started it.

 

Fine, I'm taking credit for carrying the Soto bandwagon the last two years then.

[Guest]

Nice list, Tim. Are you not expecting much out of Atkins like some others or did you forget him in your list?

 

BTW, I'd definitely have Roquet on that list if you have Avery.

I inadvertently switched avery & Atkins. :oops:

 

Haha, gotcha. I'd definitely put Roquet on the list...mid-90s FB, plus slider. He looks like a great relief prospect.

 

A couple other intriguing (imo) names to track - Cliff Andersen, James Russell, Jake Renshaw and Jeffry Antigua (DSL).

A couple of good catches there...

 

So if we're taking early nominations for next year's top 30 list, we have:

 

Iowa

 

Soto

EP

Gallagher

Petrick

Hart

 

Tennessee

 

Colvin

Reynolds

Veal

Atkins

Shark

Roquet

 

Daytona

 

Clevenger

Dope

 

Peoria

 

Castillo

Barney

Renshaw

Hernandez

Ceda

Dolis

Russell

 

Boise

 

Donaldson

Thomas

Rosa

Burke

Rundle

Huseby

Acosta

Tolentino

Cabrera

 

Arizona

 

Anderson

Carlos Perez

Marwin Gonzalez

Vitters

Oswaldo Martinez

Cedric Redmond

Larry Suarez

 

DSL

 

Jeffry Antigua

 

 

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

Edited August 25, 2007 by Tim

[Banedon]

I watching the weather to see whether or not I'm gonna bother driving to Peoria tonight...I'm not terribly optimistic about this game being played.

 

Hope you made it over last night - it was a great night for baseball and the Chiefs looked as good last night as I've seen them in a while!

 

I was there...but having a 9month old there didn't exactly make for paying as much attention to the game as I normally would like.

 

I'm stunned we didn't get wet though. Pretty much the entire rest of the state got rained on.

[Guest]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I can certainly see why, but I favor the pitchers because quite a few of the ones at the lower levels have high ceilings along with Samardzija at AA.

 

And you called Atkins "Avery" again. :)

[Outshined_One]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I'm inclined to agree with this. It seems like the hitters have more polish and production while the pitchers have higher ceilings but are more unpolished.

[Guest]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I can certainly see why, but I favor the pitchers because quite a few of the ones at the lower levels have high ceilings along with Samardzija at AA.

Many of the pitchers have the same issues with walks that Colvin has, but in reverse. I'll take the ceilings + likelihood of success of Vitters, Colvin, Donaldson over the pitchers. Then I'll take the ceilings of Burke, Rundle, Andersen against some of the raw pitchers.

 

Plus I feel there's better depth on that side of the game for the first time in a long time.

 

And you called Atkins "Avery" again. :)

uh...no I didn't... :D

[Guest]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I'm inclined to agree with this. It seems like the hitters have more polish and production while the pitchers have higher ceilings but are more unpolished.

I think there's plenty of hitters in the system with big ceilings that lack the polish, too, though.

[Guest]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I can certainly see why, but I favor the pitchers because quite a few of the ones at the lower levels have high ceilings along with Samardzija at AA.

Many of the pitchers have the same issues with walks that Colvin has, but in reverse. I'll take the ceilings + likelihood of success of Vitters, Colvin, Donaldson over the pitchers. Then I'll take the ceilings of Burke, Rundle, Andersen against some of the raw pitchers.

 

Plus I feel there's better depth on that side of the game for the first time in a long time.

 

And you called Atkins "Avery" again. :)

uh...no I didn't... :D

 

Fair enough, you do have a good point especially when considering how far away the pitchers are.

[Outshined_One]

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I'm inclined to agree with this. It seems like the hitters have more polish and production while the pitchers have higher ceilings but are more unpolished.

I think there's plenty of hitters in the system with big ceilings that lack the polish, too, though.

 

There are plenty of polished and productive pitchers in this system, too. :P

[Guest]

I watching the weather to see whether or not I'm gonna bother driving to Peoria tonight...I'm not terribly optimistic about this game being played.

 

Hope you made it over last night - it was a great night for baseball and the Chiefs looked as good last night as I've seen them in a while!

 

I was there...but having a 9month old there didn't exactly make for paying as much attention to the game as I normally would like.

 

I'm stunned we didn't get wet though. Pretty much the entire rest of the state got rained on.

 

Any observations on Hernandez great game?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Nice list, Tim. Are you not expecting much out of Atkins like some others or did you forget him in your list?

 

BTW, I'd definitely have Roquet on that list if you have Avery.

I inadvertently switched avery & Atkins. :oops:

 

Haha, gotcha. I'd definitely put Roquet on the list...mid-90s FB, plus slider. He looks like a great relief prospect.

 

A couple other intriguing (imo) names to track - Cliff Andersen, James Russell, Jake Renshaw and Jeffry Antigua (DSL).

A couple of good catches there...

 

So if we're taking early nominations for next year's top 30 list, we have:

 

Iowa

 

Soto

EP

Gallagher

Petrick

Hart

 

Tennessee

 

Colvin

Reynolds

Veal

Atkins

Shark

Roquet

 

Daytona

 

Clevenger

Dope

 

Peoria

 

Castillo

Barney

Renshaw

Hernandez

Ceda

Dolis

Russell

 

Boise

 

Donaldson

Thomas

Rosa

Burke

Rundle

Huseby

Acosta

Tolentino

Cabrera

 

Arizona

 

Anderson

Carlos Perez

Marwin Gonzalez

Vitters

Oswaldo Martinez

Cedric Redmond

Larry Suarez

 

DSL

 

Jeffry Antigua

 

 

This could be the first time in a very long time that I like the hitters more than the pitchers in our system.

 

I enjoy the minor league forum, and I love these kinds of topics. Setting aside particular players though, and completely skipping this year's June 07 amateur signings, isn't it rather depressing how far down our system has fallen? Where's the excitement in our upper level minors?

 

I get perturbed by many of the posts in the main forum when people get all uptight about the Rocky Cherry's and Scott Moore's and Clay Rapada's of the world. These kids aren't difference makers.

 

I am putting a lot of faith in Wilken like everyone else, he sure seems to have had a good 07 draft so maybe things will look better in a couple of years (LOVE Thomas and Donaldson). But for now, these are the only upper level players I see having even a remote chance of being big league difference makers:

 

Shark

Colvin

Maybe Soto

Maybe Gallagher

 

That's one short list. :-(

[Guest]

If Petrick could stay healthy, then I think he could be very good.

 

The upper levels of the system are also a bit barren because of all the graduations over the past two years. But overall, I agree with your point and look forward to a restocking of the system under Wilken.