Baseball Question About Norms...

[CubsWin]

I agree with the notion of statistical norms. If a player is near the end of or past his prime and has a career year, he isn't likely to repeat it. Players like Soriano, DeRosa and Jones would fall into this catagory. But why wouldn't the same hold true for players who are coming off of a career worst year? When the Cubs signed Marquis, I saw a player who with the right coaching could do what he had done in '04 and '05. But many only saw a pitcher who had most recently put up an ERA over 6 and sharply criticized the signing. Now it is still early, and Jason could well blow up and have an ERA over 6 again this season, but looking at statistical norms and career averages the same way we do with Soriano, DeRosa, Jones, et al, wouldn't it seem more likely that Marquis winds up with an ERA in the mid-4s as his career numbers would suggest? And when you factor in Marquis's age, wouldn't this be his time to be at his best?

 

I know there are a lot of very well informed fans who will likely disagree with me. I truly am curious as to why.

[imb]

I think with Marquis it was his three-year trends (combined with his ridiculously bad year, combined even further with the big money) that freaked everyone out.

 

He went from a good ERA+, to a decent one, to a terrible one, and appeared completely lost last season. It would have been something to laugh at until we guaranteed him three years in a Cub uniform. That's just a melting pot for disaster.

 

His peripherals were getting progressively worse as well (and they still scare me this year). He's pretty much surpassed even the most ardent optimist's expectations so far, but he has 25+ more starts to go, so I don't think you can blame anyone for being skeptical still.

[Mephistopheles]

marquis sucking wasnt just one year.

[CubsWin]

marquis sucking wasnt just one year.

I didn't say that it was. His good years weren't just one year either. So what?

[imb]

I think in Marquis' case, you had some good years, and some bad years. The bad years were more recent, (not to mention, in a trend) so concluding that he be a below average pitcher was the obvious conclusion.

[CubsWin]

I think with Marquis it was his three-year trends (combined with his ridiculously bad year, combined even further with the big money) that freaked everyone out.

Unfortunately, trends is kind of the reason why I created this thread. You can look at Soriano's HRs, runs, TBs, SLG, OPS and SBs over the last 3 seasons and see that they have steadily gone up. Do people expect this trend to continue or reverse? I don't think Soriano is going to continue to improve upon his numbers from last season. Do you? So why should we expect Marquis's numbers to continue their trend?

 

I fully agree that Marquis's numbers have been trending downward coming into this season, but the question is how likely is that trend to continue? Why is it so unlikely that his struggles last season can be successfully dealt with and his performance return to near his '05 level? Trends can't be looked at in a vacuum and assumed that just because something has happened 3 years in a row that it will likely happen again in the 4th year.

 

It seems as if when a player has a career year in the good sense that we rightfully expect him to not repeat that level the following year. But if a player has a career year in a bad sense, (and the Cubs sign him) some fans expect him to continue performing at his career worst level of the year before. I'm trying to understand why. What are the reasons behind this belief?

 

His peripherals were getting progressively worse as well (and they still scare me this year). He's pretty much surpassed even the most ardent optimist's expectations so far, but he has 25+ more starts to go, so I don't think you can blame anyone for being skeptical still.

Okay, this is helpful, especially the part about his peripherals. I'm assuming you are referring to stats such as K/9, BB/9, WHIP, etc. If there are others that I should know about, I would appreciate someone sharing them with me.

 

And I don't blame anyone for being skeptical about Marquis. I'm skeptical. I certainly don't expect him to continue performing like he has so far this season. But its possible he could finish the year with a sub 4 ERA. I don't expect that to happen either, but if he keeps getting his sinker over for strikes, who knows. Lots of people in baseball seem to think that Rothschild is a great pitching coach. I'm not sure myself. He's had mixed results while with the Cubs. And Marquis has had mixed results throughout his career which is why I expect him to fall off and wind up with an ERA in the mid-4s. But if baseball has proven to be one thing, it is unpredictable. Stats show us what has happened, but trends reverse all the time.

[CubsWin]

I think in Marquis' case, you had some good years, and some bad years. The bad years were more recent, (not to mention, in a trend) so concluding that he be a below average pitcher was the obvious conclusion.

Obvious? No. But I can certainly make a case for why he would be below average over the next 3 seasons. My dilemma comes in that I can also make a case that he could be pretty good for a couple of those seasons. If both cases can be made, it can't be an obvious conclusion.

 

His bad year was most recent. But he didn't have bad years (plural) recently. Last season was absolutely terrible. But '05 was above average and '04 was well above average. He is certainly up and down, thats for sure. But the question remains, what stats and logic support the notion that his career worst season of '06 is more the norm and than the exception?

[imb]

I think in Marquis' case, you had some good years, and some bad years. The bad years were more recent, (not to mention, in a trend) so concluding that he be a below average pitcher was the obvious conclusion.

Obvious? No. But I can certainly make a case for why he would be below average over the next 3 seasons. My dilemma comes in that I can also make a case that he could be pretty good for a couple of those seasons. If both cases can be made, it can't be an obvious conclusion.

 

His bad year was most recent. But he didn't have bad years (plural) recently. Last season was absolutely terrible. But '05 was above average and '04 was well above average. He is certainly up and down, thats for sure. But the question remains, what stats and logic support the notion that his career worst season of '06 is more the norm and than the exception?

 

I say obvious, as in "it's more likely".

 

Marquis is a guy who, outside of 129 innings in 2001, has been slightly above average once, average once, and decidedly below average three times.

 

I don't know why you say bad "year" like he's had only one, he was awful in 2002 and 2003, too. Out of his last five seasons, three of them have been below average, with his last season being the worst.

 

I think the expectation that his 2006 will be closer to the norm than his slightly above average years is the fact that he's really nothing special, even at his best. He's an average player at best, and he was historically awful last year. To look at Marquis numbers and say "I bet he has a good year" would be ridiculous. To say "I think he can have a good year" is less so, and there's the distinction.

 

Think of it in this context. If ARod were to hit .250/.320/.470 next year, people would say "well, it's still ARod, and he's only 32, he'll be better next season". And of course he would be, he's been an amazing player for over a decade.

 

If Marquis has a season where he has a 6.02 ERA with a 73 ERA+, strikes out just 96 and walks 75, people are going to say "well, it's Jason Marquis, he probably lost it." Then when he signs a 3-year, $21 million dollar deal with the most tortured fan base in sports, what kind of reaction do you expect?

[CubsWin]

I say obvious, as in "it's more likely".

Okay, that makes more sense.

 

Marquis is a guy who, outside of 129 innings in 2001, has been slightly above average once, average once, and decidedly below average three times.

Why would you not include what he did in '01? If you included it, it still wouldn't change much. He is clearly an up and down pitcher. He's got 3 years with an ERA+ above 100 and 4 below. One of the above average years is only slightly above average at 103 and 2 of the below average years were a very small sample size of 23 and 40 innings. He's clearly inconsistent year to year and overall very average with a career ERA+ just below 100.

 

I don't know why you say bad "year" like he's had only one, he was awful in 2002 and 2003, too. Out of his last five seasons, three of them have been below average, with his last season being the worst.

I said bad "year" in response to you saying that he had had bad "years" recently. He hasn't. He has only had one bad year recently. Sorry, I thought that was clear, but I probably didn't do a good job writing that. Clearly Marquis has had more than one bad year in his career. No one is disputing that.

 

I think the expectation that his 2006 will be closer to the norm than his slightly above average years is the fact that he's really nothing special, even at his best. He's an average player at best, and he was historically awful last year. To look at Marquis numbers and say "I bet he has a good year" would be ridiculous. To say "I think he can have a good year" is less so, and there's the distinction.

I agree. I look at his numbers and if I were to bet, I would say he would have an average year not a good one, meaning an ERA around 4.50.

 

But a lot of fans were saying that he would be terrible, like an ERA in the mid 5s or higher, as if his '06 showing was somehow the real Marquis. But, when I looked at the stats, I saw that '06 was the worst year of his career and I wondered, if we look at players' career best years and assume that they won't repeat them, why would we look at a player's career worst year and assume that he will repeat it?

[swordsman]

Did some one call us?

 

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[imb]

why would we look at a player's career worst year and assume that he will repeat it?

 

I don't think people always assume that a player will repeat his worst year. I think people felt that way about Marquis because he's a guy who has gotten progressively worse the last three years, in basically every statistic you can come up with. This regression or whatever you want to call it sort of climaxed in an absolutely terrible, should not be in the majors, season last year.

 

I think the season was just so bad that everyone assumed he had lost all concept of what he was doing. It would have been different had he been a really good pitcher that had a bad year, but he's really not much better than average, at best.

[NCCubFan]

Did some one call us?

 

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Nawmy!