Prospect Smackdown: Pie vs Ellsbury

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

On minorleagueball.com, Sickels has included Pie in a smackdown vs Jacob Ellsbury.

 

Link.

 

 

PECOTA obviously likes Pie's upside more than Ellsbury's, and this is understandable given Pie's younger age and greater power potential. PECOTA is just one system, however. I think Pie has more projection than Ellsbury and could be a more complete player, but he also has a higher risk of flaming out on us, if his strike zone judgment doesn't improve. I think PECOTA probably overstates the difference between them somewhat, but Pie does have more projection in traditional terms.

 

Summary

I rate them as even on background/intangibles, Pie with an edge on tools, Ellsbury with an edge on current polish, and Pie an edge on projection. Overall Pie comes out a bit ahead, which is not how I rated them in the book this year: I had Ellsbury at 21 and Pie at 22. So is the book right, or is this analysis right? Going over it in this kind of detail has led me to change my mind, and if I was doing the list again I'd swap them out, Pie moving up a notch ahead of Ellsbury. I will adjust this in the next version of the 50/50 list.