Good Brews Blog/Saber Stuff

[Balsa]

http://www.brewcrewball.com/

 

He's got some really interesting stuff about BABIP fluctuation and age, and luck, and all that stuff.

 

For instance under "2005 BIP Underperformers under age 32" it lists both Juan Pierre (to a lesser extent) and Jacque Jones (to a significant extent). Let's hope he's right.

 

Also, here's another site, but I can't really understand this one...something about defense range or something...

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/

[Knyption]

Great, that bacisally reinforces the idea we need a fluke season to win this year

[Balsa]

Well, no, it means they were 'unlucky' last year and that for them to improve would almost be expected.

[Knyption]

Luck will play a role as always

[Balsa]

You can't erase luck from baseball. It's as much a part of the game as the players are. Every team battles with luck. I fail to see where you're making your point.

[Magnetic Curses]

You can't erase luck from baseball. It's as much a part of the game as the players are. Every team battles with luck. I fail to see where you're making your point.

 

luck should be even across the board over 162 games. However, sometimes it takes a couple of seasons for the averages to even out.

[Jehrico]

You can't erase luck from baseball. It's as much a part of the game as the players are. Every team battles with luck. I fail to see where you're making your point.

 

I think he's saying that Jones and Pierre should have been better than they were last year, that they had bad luck. Their BABIP indicates that their stats should have been better, thus, they should improve this year. I hope so. Pierre is capable of putting up a .370 OBP or better, which we've seen. Jones has stated that he was trying to pull the ball too much instead of spreading it around, which could contribute to a lower BABIP. I hope he's right, I'm not 100% I buy it.

[Balsa]

Thanks that's what I was trying to say.