Cubs Won't Buy At Deadline (Duh?), Still Deciding How/If To Trade Complicated Contract Situations

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Eh, you're probably right but 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- Parades

RF- Bellinger

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya 

It still feels like it needs another bat

It probably does. But makes it a lot easier for Shaw and/or Caissie to be that bat too. Shaw blowing awaw AAA in the next 12 months makes Hoerner trade bait, Caissie lets you pick between salary dumping Bellinger or trading PCA for pitching or prospect depth. Or, as Tom has mentioned once or twice, trade PCA for Robert and go to war. 

43 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

That wisdom grand slam convinced hoyer to buy

Hoyer is just a puppet.  Who is the puppet master, you ask? 

Rick Sutcliffe

This gives the Cubs a ton of money to fill RF/C in the offseason. Not that I believe it's going to happen, but they'd seriously have Soto money available now that 3B is filled relatively cheaply.

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Does jed going in on paredes cancel any taillon talk now?

I doubt it. The equation is the same as it was before. If the offer leaves us in better position for 2025-26, we're likely to take it. If it doesn't, we're likely to pass.

Despite the acquisition of Paredes, we aren't playing for 2024. It'd be foolish to push all-in from last place.

I'm still formulating my thoughts here but I think trading Taillon is a better idea now than it was this morning.

You've now fixed 3B and done so while only committing $5-6M more in '25 salary.  C is a position you can't throw a ton of money at even if you wanted (neither of Jansen or d'Arnaud, the top two catchers set to hit FA, will top $15M per year).  An outfielder like O'Neill or Santander or Teoscar isn't a terrible fit with the additional clarity at DH, but only feels likely if Bellinger is gone?

So I think you want to throw your dollars at pitching.  I've made the point before but I'd rather have a 3 WAR SP making $25M than a 2 WAR SP in Taillon making $17M.  That's even more true now IMO.

I think the alternative is the "why not both" path where you spend some young pitching, probably on a controllable catcher.

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Does jed going in on paredes cancel any taillon talk now?

I don’t think so. Paredes is a move with an eye on “25 and beyond. Starting pitcher is a position of strength (this year’s injuries notwithstanding).

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Let’s not go too wild here: Paredes, thanks to meh EVs, is enough of an outlier that 2025 is hardly in the bag. This is a move for 2024, is only related to 2025 in that they have another cheap capital asset piece thing object under control to increase flexibility towards building that roster when it comes up 

Edit: I’d also throw out that Paredes hitting arb will trigger the aging virus. Def not a given this is a 2025+ move in any sense other than they added a good player under contract for 2025 (which was part of the package rather than something they had to add on)

I never indicated Paredes was a sure thing. The question was asked if this changes the calculus on Taillon. It does not. 
 

Jed made it clear he would only “buy” if it made sense 2025 and beyond. This is that kind of move. Taillon will only be traded if it makes sense 2025 and beyond. Same as before this trade. 
 

This trade very likely makes the team better in 2025, a year in which Jed hopes to prove himself worthy of another contract. Sure thing. Certainly not. Likely improved 3B situation in 2025. Definitely.

Interesting tidbits:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/latest-on-cubs-deadline-plans.html
 

Quote

 

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

...While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular.

 

It would be cool if Jed got proactive and fixed catcher in the next 48 hours too.  The to-do list this winter would be:

- An outfielder, the quality and style of which depend on Bellinger and PCA's next 3 months

- A high leverage reliever or three

- Maybe a SP, depending on the Taillon decision and/or what young pitching goes out the door for that aforementioned catcher

The Cubs are in a really fascinating place right now. Let's assume that Cody opts in, which is likely at this point and they don't move Taillon. They're going to have something like 40M available in FA. As of right now your 2025 Lineup probably looks like this

C-Amaya

1B- Busch

2B-Nico

SS-Dansby

3B- Parades

RF- Bellinger

CF-PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya

Improved, absolutely but still lacking at least 1 bat. The most obvious thing to do would be move Bellinger to center, PCA to Iowa and find a Rfer. 

As far as the rotation goes, you could completely justify not spending a cent on it. Steele/Shota/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown/Wesneski and eventually Horton is really solid and has good depth. Even with Bigge traded and Neris likely gone, would the pen need more than 1 arm in FA, if any? Merryweather/Adbert/Leiter/Little/Hodge/Miller are all legitimate arms and you may have Pearson too. Basically, how are they going to spend this nearly 40M? I know it's not going to happen, but this is about as perfectly set up as they could be to add a guy like Soto. RF/C are really the only 2 must spend positions as things stand and C could very easily be solved through a trade.