Kyle Tucker Wins Silver Slugger Award

Tucker didn't have a great fielding year. Several balls hit in the corner that he really didn't hustle on. He is a very good player, not a great player and never deserving of a $300 mil.+ contract. He will likely get much more with greedy Boras, but let's give Cassie who fielded very well a shot, Alcantara or others. Bellinger actually had a better year than Tucker as I have pointed out before.

I wouldn't take either, but at least Belli can play 4 positions very well.

Kyle Tucker is not represented by Scott Boras

Tucker had a wOBA 16 points higher than Bellinger, a wRC 11 points higher, and an xwOBA 50 points higher. 

Caissie, Alcantara, and pretty much any other alternative would be a significant downgrade from Tucker. 

I'd like to see Tucker back, I'm just not sure how realistic it is.  But it would be nice to not have to try to replace his bat.  If he doesn't struggle physically, I have to believe his slump would at least have been less pronounced.

17 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Kyle Tucker is not represented by Scott Boras

Tucker had a wOBA 16 points higher than Bellinger, a wRC 11 points higher, and an xwOBA 50 points higher. 

Caissie, Alcantara, and pretty much any other alternative would be a significant downgrade from Tucker. 

All of this is true. I still think giving Mo and ONKC and/or Alcantara  a shot and allocating the money on pitching instead is the right play. 

1 hour ago, Bull said:

All of this is true. I still think giving Mo and ONKC and/or Alcantara  a shot and allocating the money on pitching instead is the right play. 

I think the money is better spent on a big bat, preferably Tucker but would settle for one of the other options given our flexibility (DH bat pushes Suzuki back to RF, third baseman makes Shaw available), and then trade from Ballesteros/Caissie/Alcantara/maybe Shaw for a cost controlled arm. But largely you're ending up in around the same spot. 

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think the money is better spent on a big bat, preferably Tucker but would settle for one of the other options given our flexibility (DH bat pushes Suzuki back to RF, third baseman makes Shaw available), and then trade from Ballesteros/Caissie/Alcantara/maybe Shaw for a cost controlled arm. But largely you're ending up in around the same spot. 

You beat me to this point. Yes, getting Tucker back would be the best option. Then you trade for that pitcher you want, at or near, the TOR. You would be bringing the same offense back and have they pitcher you traded for and Steele (eventually) added to the rotation. And if you got someone like Cabrera in a trade, they would still have money to spend to add a bench player and a few pen arms. I think the people who don’t want Tucker are undervaluing him because of his injuries last year and for some reason just don’t like him. They aren’t getting him, but I wish they would. 

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think the money is better spent on a big bat, preferably Tucker but would settle for one of the other options given our flexibility (DH bat pushes Suzuki back to RF, third baseman makes Shaw available), and then trade from Ballesteros/Caissie/Alcantara/maybe Shaw for a cost controlled arm. But largely you're ending up in around the same spot. 

My issue is that I keep coming back to: I don't like any of the other hitters in this market. I might be on an island here, but there just isn't a hitter I like outside of, probably, Kyle Tucker, in terms of fit and form. 

None of the options at 3b feel like they upgrade over what Shaw is enough to commit $20m or so to; though maybe you can convince me Bo Bichette is worth it. Beyond that, I'm a no on any Bregman deal at this stage, Murakami's contact issues are horrendous and Okamoto has been scouted anywhere between "this guy can play 3b at the MLB" and "only a second division 1b who can't play 3b". For $16m I'm not sure he's going to be a step up over the Shaw package. 

Kyle Schwarber is a contract I'd stay far away from. Already 33 and a DH only, what little data we have on bat speed seems to suggest that ages 32 and 33 are where batspeed begins to decrease. Already a limited hitter to three true outcomes, I just don't like the back half of that contract. 

Then you drop to hitters who are all projected at 3 fWAR or lower; Bellinger, Torres, Alonso, Naylor...maybe you try to get someone to slip through the spending crack, but kind of feels more like a lot of these guys have already had that happen before and they  probably won't want to go year-to-year again. 

Ultimately, if the Cubs are going to decide they can't pay Kyle Tucker and it's a non-starter, I'd probably rather the Cubs go heavy into pitching. Both in FA and in trade. 

21 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

My issue is that I keep coming back to: I don't like any of the other hitters in this market. I might be on an island here, but there just isn't a hitter I like outside of, probably, Kyle Tucker, in terms of fit and form. 

None of the options at 3b feel like they upgrade over what Shaw is enough to commit $20m or so to; though maybe you can convince me Bo Bichette is worth it. Beyond that, I'm a no on any Bregman deal at this stage, Murakami's contact issues are horrendous and Okamoto has been scouted anywhere between "this guy can play 3b at the MLB" and "only a second division 1b who can't play 3b". For $16m I'm not sure he's going to be a step up over the Shaw package. 

Kyle Schwarber is a contract I'd stay far away from. Already 33 and a DH only, what little data we have on bat speed seems to suggest that ages 32 and 33 are where batspeed begins to decrease. Already a limited hitter to three true outcomes, I just don't like the back half of that contract. 

Then you drop to hitters who are all projected at 3 fWAR or lower; Bellinger, Torres, Alonso, Naylor...maybe you try to get someone to slip through the spending crack, but kind of feels more like a lot of these guys have already had that happen before and they  probably won't want to go year-to-year again. 

Ultimately, if the Cubs are going to decide they can't pay Kyle Tucker and it's a non-starter, I'd probably rather the Cubs go heavy into pitching. Both in FA and in trade. 

I think for me its a few things:

• I don't really like any of the free agent options, on either side of the ball, with the exception of Tucker. 
• We can't really trade from a non-existent pile of pitching prospects to plug the hole in RF/DH, and the offense looks very 2023-2024 Cubs without doing that.
• I'd rather give Hottovy the list of (younger, cost controlled) pitchers that are acquirable for a Ballesteros/Caissie/Shaw/Alcantara centered package than essentially 'here's Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King'.
• This is probably a little irrational, a win is a win no matter how you slice it, but....if there's any team that has room for a 100% bat guy (like a short term deal in the Alonso/Naylor/Suarez mold), it's the Cubs. Right now we're going to have what....4 guys locked into the lineup that are going to project as valuable (because they are) while also projecting for like...100-110 wRC? Give me a 140 wRC to pair with Suzuki and just have PCA start every play in RCF. 

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think for me its a few things:

• I don't really like any of the free agent options, on either side of the ball, with the exception of Tucker. 
• We can't really trade from a non-existent pile of pitching prospects to plug the hole in RF/DH, and the offense looks very 2023-2024 Cubs without doing that.
• I'd rather give Hottovy the list of (younger, cost controlled) pitchers that are acquirable for a Ballesteros/Caissie/Shaw/Alcantara centered package than essentially 'here's Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King'.
• This is probably a little irrational, a win is a win no matter how you slice it, but....if there's any team that has room for a 100% bat guy (like a short term deal in the Alonso/Naylor/Suarez mold), it's the Cubs. Right now we're going to have what....4 guys locked into the lineup that are going to project as valuable (because they are) while also projecting for like...100-110 wRC? Give me a 140 wRC to pair with Suzuki and just have PCA start every play in RCF. 

I really like Dylan Cease and Tatusyua Imai, personally. I'll give people a little hesitation on Imai, but generally speaking, I think the dude is legit from what I can get from the NPB Statcast and the research I've done. Both are $150m players. I like them, probably $/year about more than anyone else on the market, though if you think first-half Tucker is real Tucker, I'll give you him. 

To be clear; I don't want Suarez or Valdez, either. I will say that in 2026, Framber Valdez, and extreme ground ball pitcher, in Wrigley, with our defense may be a candidate for Cy Young if things break healthy and correct, but long term, I'm probably out (also he seems like a turd for throwing at his catcher). I could do Michael King, but he has to be the second best SP acquired. 

And yeah, the offense is probably taking a step back. I wouldn't entire ignore the offense in my plan, but my offseason right now would probably be to collect my favorite Caissie/Ballesteros/Long prospect internally and have them be my main DH. I'd pick up a hitter I feel very comfortable will mash LHP (Jo Adell? Alec Bohm? just names) that is available. Maybe this is Okamoto if his market doesn't materialize as a starting 3b option. I feel comfortable that the Cubs develop young hitters well into productive MLB players through the course of a season. 

Beyond that, I'm taking my leftovers and looking into a trade that probably includes some young arms (Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad) leaving and either trying to get the cost controlled guy, signing Cease or Imai, or going heavy into the BP (resign Keller, sign Gregory Soto, grab Tyler Kinley, maybe even swim in the Helsey or Devin Williams). 

The good thing with this plan, IMO, is that it solves the pitching early and if you need to solve a hitting option, you can do that more cheaply at the deadline. 

This isn't like, a complete idea or thought, it's a lot of hashing it out, trial and error, rough draft stream of consciousness, but it's along my favorite path this offseason. I don't think there's a pathway to being a significantly better offensive team, and I'm not very convinced there's a pathway that even really gets us to equal last year. But I think there is a pathway to being among the best pitching teams in baseball, and that's probably where I'd point the nose of my ship this winter.

The both good and bad of this offseason is there's not a right answer.  There's some stuff that I do think is straight up a bad idea (Looking at you, Geno Suarez), but broadly it's vibes.

Do you want to a Top 5 position player group and an okayish pitching staff like in '25?  Easy peasy, sign a bat and some relievers, trade for a SP.

Do you want a more balanced team, top 10 on both sides of the ball?  Easy peasy, add a quality bench guy or two and otherwise focus your resources on pitching.

Does it matter if you do your shopping via FA or trade?  Only a bit.  There's probably not enough money to do all your shopping in FA, and you really ought to move one of the Iowa 4, but generally there's some freedom to take what the market offers.

39 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I really like Dylan Cease and Tatusyua Imai, personally. I'll give people a little hesitation on Imai, but generally speaking, I think the dude is legit from what I can get from the NPB Statcast and the research I've done. Both are $150m players. I like them, probably $/year about more than anyone else on the market, though if you think first-half Tucker is real Tucker, I'll give you him. 

To be clear; I don't want Suarez or Valdez, either. I will say that in 2026, Framber Valdez, and extreme ground ball pitcher, in Wrigley, with our defense may be a candidate for Cy Young if things break healthy and correct, but long term, I'm probably out (also he seems like a turd for throwing at his catcher). I could do Michael King, but he has to be the second best SP acquired. 

And yeah, the offense is probably taking a step back. I wouldn't entire ignore the offense in my plan, but my offseason right now would probably be to collect my favorite Caissie/Ballesteros/Long prospect internally and have them be my main DH. I'd pick up a hitter I feel very comfortable will mash LHP (Jo Adell? Alec Bohm? just names) that is available. Maybe this is Okamoto if his market doesn't materialize as a starting 3b option. I feel comfortable that the Cubs develop young hitters well into productive MLB players through the course of a season. 

Beyond that, I'm taking my leftovers and looking into a trade that probably includes some young arms (Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad) leaving and either trying to get the cost controlled guy, signing Cease or Imai, or going heavy into the BP (resign Keller, sign Gregory Soto, grab Tyler Kinley, maybe even swim in the Helsey or Devin Williams). 

The good thing with this plan, IMO, is that it solves the pitching early and if you need to solve a hitting option, you can do that more cheaply at the deadline. 

This isn't like, a complete idea or thought, it's a lot of hashing it out, trial and error, rough draft stream of consciousness, but it's along my favorite path this offseason. I don't think there's a pathway to being a significantly better offensive team, and I'm not very convinced there's a pathway that even really gets us to equal last year. But I think there is a pathway to being among the best pitching teams in baseball, and that's probably where I'd point the nose of my ship this winter.

'The offense is probably taking a step back'/'I don't think there's a pathway to being a significantly better team'.....why? We're bringing back 8 starters, and there's not a single person on that list with the exception of maybe the catching position that I would look at their overall 2025 stats and say we should expect it to get significantly worse. Schwarber and Alonso both outperformed Tucker offensively, in results and in expected results. Suarez/Bregman comes with more serious concerns offensively, but also don't weigh down your defense. Naylor is a step down from Tucker but a step up from the AAA group. Schwarber/Alonso make the offense better, Suarez/Bregman offsets the step down in offense in RF.

I don't know, sign one of those at $30m on the top end and you have $40m-$50m to play with and a pile of major league ready hitters with nowhere to play. Instead of Cease (heavy rumors to Houston) or Imai, you've got a list of teams that would be want to pick up a major league ready outfielder (or a unicorn catching prospect, or a third baseman with a productive half season under his belt) and whatever starting pitchers they have. 

52 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

'The offense is probably taking a step back'/'I don't think there's a pathway to being a significantly better team'.....why? We're bringing back 8 starters, and there's not a single person on that list with the exception of maybe the catching position that I would look at their overall 2025 stats and say we should expect it to get significantly worse. Schwarber and Alonso both outperformed Tucker offensively, in results and in expected results. Suarez/Bregman comes with more serious concerns offensively, but also don't weigh down your defense. Naylor is a step down from Tucker but a step up from the AAA group. Schwarber/Alonso make the offense better, Suarez/Bregman offsets the step down in offense in RF.

I don't know, sign one of those at $30m on the top end and you have $40m-$50m to play with and a pile of major league ready hitters with nowhere to play. Instead of Cease (heavy rumors to Houston) or Imai, you've got a list of teams that would be want to pick up a major league ready outfielder (or a unicorn catching prospect, or a third baseman with a productive half season under his belt) and whatever starting pitchers they have. 

Again, I'm not in love with these bats. For example, with Pete Alonso, he finished the previous two seasons with a wRC+ in the 120 wRC+ range. At the risk of "ignoring everything he did well, he was bad"-ing Pete's 2025, it really stands out a decent outlier. He's always been a good hitter, but his batted ball data went through the roof last year across the board - career high stuff - even better on the batted ball stuff than his last season in the 140+ wRC+ range. At age-31, I'm not sure I'd expect that moving forward. And while I don't want to horsefeathers on a 120 wRC+ hitter entering the lineup, I don't think the Cubs 2026 offense is better than the 2025 offense, nor do I think it's as good as the 2025 offense. 

Kyle Schwarber, as well, is off a career year. His ISO went through the roof at age 32. Prior to this, his previous four years (I will exclude his 91 wRC+ during 2020 for a ton of reasons) had him as a 130 wRC+, ranging between 118-145. Only four hitters league wide were 33 years old and had a 130 wRC+ or better. Now, I won't say Schwarber won't do that; I'd probably expect a 130 wRC+ from him, but as he enters ages where bat speed begin to decline (it would appear, we are in the infancy of tracking this data) I become hesitant to think he's going to come anywhere near his career best season. Schwarber at a 130 wRC+ is probably your best bet of getting to a top-5 run scoring offense in 2026. There's also probably an aspect here to remind ourselves that LHH at Wrigley seem to struggle more than their RHH counterparts. How much you want to factor that into here is obviously debatable, they  also play 81 games elsewhere, but is probably at the very least worth noting. 

It's why I said what I said. The offense is going to take a step backwards almost regardless. And I didn't say a "significantly better team", but a significantly better offensive team. When it comes to both Schwarber and Alonso, they probably do increase the offense a good deal over what it is now; but not enough for me to want to attach myself to a positionless player who already have holes in their game. I trust the Cubs to develop their favorite hitter, coupled with a good LHH option to a pretty good hitter as we go. I just think dumping the offseason into the pitching will generally get the Cubs to a better position in 2026 with who is available. You may like these hitters more than me; you probably do if you are making your argument. But neither are my cups for where the Cubs are.

49 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

'The offense is probably taking a step back'/'I don't think there's a pathway to being a significantly better team'.....why? We're bringing back 8 starters, and there's not a single person on that list with the exception of maybe the catching position that I would look at their overall 2025 stats and say we should expect it to get significantly worse. Schwarber and Alonso both outperformed Tucker offensively, in results and in expected results. Suarez/Bregman comes with more serious concerns offensively, but also don't weigh down your defense. Naylor is a step down from Tucker but a step up from the AAA group. Schwarber/Alonso make the offense better, Suarez/Bregman offsets the step down in offense in RF.

I don't know, sign one of those at $30m on the top end and you have $40m-$50m to play with and a pile of major league ready hitters with nowhere to play. Instead of Cease (heavy rumors to Houston) or Imai, you've got a list of teams that would be want to pick up a major league ready outfielder (or a unicorn catching prospect, or a third baseman with a productive half season under his belt) and whatever starting pitchers they have. 

I’m with you. Buy the bat (preferably Tucker-though I know that won’t happen) and trade for another young TOR starting pitcher. If they did that they would still have enough money to add a decent bench bat and pen arms. The rotation would be as last year, but also have a potential TOR (Cabrera) and Steele coming back. So it should be better. Could end up a top 5-10 offense and top 5-10 rotation. 

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You beat me to this point. Yes, getting Tucker back would be the best option. Then you trade for that pitcher you want, at or near, the TOR. You would be bringing the same offense back and have they pitcher you traded for and Steele (eventually) added to the rotation. And if you got someone like Cabrera in a trade, they would still have money to spend to add a bench player and a few pen arms. I think the people who don’t want Tucker are undervaluing him because of his injuries last year and for some reason just don’t like him. They aren’t getting him, but I wish they would. 

I like Tucker. I just think $40M a year gets you a lot of pitching, and while a starting pitcher generally has as much impact as a top 4 in the order hitter (5 of every 45 innings vs approx 12% of at bats). But elite Pitching is 7-8 innings (as necessary) of 45. The other factors seem to cancel each other out (elite pitching saves the bullpen, protection in the batting order). 

Additionally the difference between Tucker and what the best of the triad of Mo, Alcantara and Caissie could offer is less than the difference between what the top pitcher available can offer against what the best of the triad of Assad Wicks and Rea can offer. 

If you can address both via trade + FA, I'm certainly down. 

25 minutes ago, Bull said:

But elite Pitching is 7-8 innings (as necessary) of 45.

There wasn't a single qualified pitcher in baseball last season that averaged 7 innings per start. Dylan Cease averaged 5.25, recorded 21 outs twice last year. Imai averaged 6.8 IP/start but I know most Japanese rotations are six man rotations. I'm fine with an argument that elite pitching is better than elite hitting, but I don't think the math holds up here. 

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There wasn't a single qualified pitcher in baseball last season that averaged 7 innings per start. Dylan Cease averaged 5.25, recorded 21 outs twice last year. Imai averaged 6.8 IP/start but I know most Japanese rotations are six man rotations. I'm fine with an argument that elite pitching is better than elite hitting, but I don't think the math holds up here. 

thus the "as necessary". 

tucker is an elite bat, but his age and injury history make the long contract he wants a non-starter for me. Maybe just a prisoner of the moment thing because of how the season ended for him, but im just not interested. The cubs don't seem likely to ever have more than one big contract on the books, so it's gonna have to just be a perfect fit stituation imo

I am going to the awards show MLB is having on Thursday and then to the after party. I happen to be in Las Vegas this weeks and spend a lot of time in the Cosmopolitan hotel. That is where the GM meetings are. So far no sign of Jed or Carter, but I am sure they are here. Any requests when I do run into Jed or Carter? I am sure they will listen to me😬

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I am going to the awards show MLB is having on Thursday and then to the after party. I happen to be in Las Vegas this weeks and spend a lot of time in the Cosmopolitan hotel. That is where the GM meetings are. So far no sign of Jed or Carter, but I am sure they are here. Any requests when I do run into Jed or Carter? I am sure they will listen to me😬

Tell them to trade for Joe Ryan

16 hours ago, Bull said:

I like Tucker. I just think $40M a year gets you a lot of pitching, and while a starting pitcher generally has as much impact as a top 4 in the order hitter (5 of every 45 innings vs approx 12% of at bats). But elite Pitching is 7-8 innings (as necessary) of 45. The other factors seem to cancel each other out (elite pitching saves the bullpen, protection in the batting order). 

Additionally the difference between Tucker and what the best of the triad of Mo, Alcantara and Caissie could offer is less than the difference between what the top pitcher available can offer against what the best of the triad of Assad Wicks and Rea can offer. 

If you can address both via trade + FA, I'm certainly down. 

There was never a world in which we were going to match any team willing to pay $40 million a year or more for Tucker.  I get the "it's not my money and you have it why not spend it" crowd as far as the Cubs front office goes and frustration with the frugalness, but that was never going to happen and honestly I'm o.k. with it in the sense that I don't think it would be a good move for the long term and maybe even the short term.

Tuck was honestly below average in the field last year, he's showing signs of a guy who may not age well and for whom even seemingly minor injuries can get him off track for long periods.....and someone is going to give him 10 or 11 years...or hell even 8?  It's much more not wanting to block that roster spot for that long than anything else for me. 

I'd tend to agree about the preference to spread that money out but the Cubs have shown time again money they have saved here is not always spent there.  See Bellinger savings. 

4 hours ago, CubUgly said:

There was never a world in which we were going to match any team willing to pay $40 million a year or more for Tucker.  I get the "it's not my money and you have it why not spend it" crowd as far as the Cubs front office goes and frustration with the frugalness, but that was never going to happen and honestly I'm o.k. with it in the sense that I don't think it would be a good move for the long term and maybe even the short term.

Tuck was honestly below average in the field last year, he's showing signs of a guy who may not age well and for whom even seemingly minor injuries can get him off track for long periods.....and someone is going to give him 10 or 11 years...or hell even 8?  It's much more not wanting to block that roster spot for that long than anything else for me. 

I'd tend to agree about the preference to spread that money out but the Cubs have shown time again money they have saved here is not always spent there.  See Bellinger savings. 

They have also shown a willingness to go over the LT for one year at a time, but not more. 11 year contracts make that difficult. 

They need a TOR pitcher and they need SLG. They are a team of role players who play great defense, but they are not an offensive juggernaut. Who is? In life, everything is relative, but being the tallest person under five feet is not a particularly notable accomplishment. 

If the price is right, I'd love to bring Cease and Schwarber back home. Cease will benefit greatly from Hottovy, and Kyle brings an edge and can swat home runs. 

That's where I'm at. 

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They need a TOR pitcher and they need SLG. They are a team of role players who play great defense, but they are not an offensive juggernaut. Who is? In life, everything is relative, but being the tallest person under five feet is not a particularly notable accomplishment. 

If the price is right, I'd love to bring Cease and Schwarber back home. Cease will benefit greatly from Hottovy, and Kyle brings an edge and can swat home runs. 

That's where I'm at. 

I would like that as well. But IMO if that is whatever want we will end up underwhelmed by the off season. I don’t see either of those guys becoming a Cub. 

48 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They need a TOR pitcher and they need SLG. They are a team of role players who play great defense, but they are not an offensive juggernaut. Who is? In life, everything is relative, but being the tallest person under five feet is not a particularly notable accomplishment. 

If the price is right, I'd love to bring Cease and Schwarber back home. Cease will benefit greatly from Hottovy, and Kyle brings an edge and can swat home runs. 

That's where I'm at. 

I can't see a scenario where we sign the top arm, and then sign a top bat that basically blocks the valuable group of Caissie/Ballesteros/Alcantara. It's too much money to throw at over 30 players. You can dump the money on pitching and turn Caissie/Ballesteros loose, or you can sign a top hitter and then use your blocked MLB ready hitters to pick up a pitcher. But can't see them committing $55m-$60m in free agency money and then still having to buy a bullpen.

Having said that, I'd be thrilled. I'm feeling irrational enough at the moment to get a Schwarber or Alonso and then blow away the Tigers with Caissie/Ballesteros/Alcantara/Long....maybe even Shaw for Skubal.