Hello Cubs World, 

I'm sending off an academic publication this weekend! Its always a big landmark moment. Academic studies can take months or years, with the average turnaround time dramatically varying by field. I'm a business professor, and our publication rates are much slower than hard scientists. Its normal for research faculty to produce 1 "b" quality journal paper every 12-24 months, and in addition to that research, producing 1 "a" quality paper every 3 years. However, only about 1/3rd of faculty are research these days- the rest publish at low rates or not at all. I'm stuck in the middle, as I have the profile of a researcher but my career was ruined by the pandemic- it disrupted me from 2020-2023. Second, researching alone as opposed to in teams can dramatically reduce the pace of production. I'm submitting a backlog of solo papers several years old this spring. The one I just completed is a framework for managers to use when designing a new venture in a revolutionary technical area such as AI or Self Driving vehicles. Its called the 5 S Framework for Technical Venture Design (Sectors, Sourcing, Scaling, Standards, and Sequencing).   

Anyhoo, I have some time to spare to finish my assessment of Justin Turner. And let me remind you folks I don't hate the signing - its a B minus situation. However, several better opportunities could have been seized. Let's dig into that analysis!.  

Baseline Analysis: Cubs Team WAR Projections

Let's focus right now on the 11 field players, minus the catchers, and take a look at where we stand. 

I will ignore my own personal adjustments to WAR (MOJO) and report the most optimistic between Zips /Zips DC projection numbers. 

Interestingly, it comes out to roughly the same ceiling as when I use my own MOJO + Baseball References' WAR numbers!

 Fangraphs Team Projection, assuming no major injuries: 96.3 Wins

Swanson 4.5

Tucker     4.4

Hoerner  3.5 (injury Time)

Happ       3.4

PCA         3.3

Suzuki     3.1

Busch     2.3

Berti        1.3 (prorated 60% of a starters' plate appearances)

Turner     1 (prorated 80%)

Shaw     2.0

(Workman) .5 (pro-rated 30%) 

TOTAL: 28.8 

Other WAR:  17 pitching, 2.5 catching. 

Total: 48.3

48+48.3  = 96.3 

Given this particular assembly of players, we've got a lot to be proud of! Yay us!

However, The Fangraphs projection assumes Turner gets 478 plate appearances. Steamer has a more realistic expectation of 100 less, and projects a .5 WAR. I agree with this. 

Thus, I will be evaluating Turner as a ,5 WAR contributor (prorated 50%), not as a 1 WAR (80%) contributor. Starters average 600 plate appearances. 

How Good is This Bench?

Now, that being said, it would be possible to squeeze more war out of the bench (Berti/Turner/Workman).

First, players with ideal platoon splits could challenge for more playing time and markedly outperform certain starters. Those starters with hitting vulnerabilities close to, or below, league average are: PCA (vs left), Busch (vs Left), Swanson (vs both), Hoerner (vs. Right). A great bench player can actually outperform these splits, and thus be a routine pinch hitter for those starters. 

Turner, projected splits (me) : RHP .720 OPS LHP .740

Berti : RHP .700 LHP .740

Workman: RHP .730 LHP .690

PCA:  RHP . 770 LHP .640

Busch RHP .810 LHP .720

Swanson RHP. 730 LHP .730

Hoerner: RHP .700  LHP. 730

Suzuki: RHP .850 LHP .850

_____________________

Does Turner Create "profit" at the plate? No, because he can only sub for Busch or Suzuki and would underperform each of those players substantially. Even when platooning, he is maybe "breakeven" with Busch, because his slight advantage versus left hand pitchers is offset by his glove. Second, Turner has more value when subbing at DH for Suzuki vs left- handed pitching. In that situation, Suzuki replaces PCA and greatly increases CF OPS from .640 to .850; however, that would be true regardless of who covers DH. Turner is still barely above league average, and a DH is usually about 110 OPS+ or higher. Thus, he's not a positive difference maker in either DH or 1B; however, he does set a high floor because he's never had a bad season at the plate. Its rather easy to find players who can outperform at DH AND sub at multiple positions instead of just 1B. Yet we are paying 6 MM plus up to 2.5 MM for extended playing time, which is a pricey insurance policy. A more accurate contract would have been 3MM + 2 MM extended playing time.  

Does Turner Create Loss in the field? Yes, he is expected to be 1 WAR worse than Busch per 150 games played. that's a pricey deficit. So, we would go from a 2.3-3.0 WAR player to a 1.3 WAR player in the case of very early season-ending injury to Busch, for $8.5 mm. Thats a 300% premium on the usual price for a 1 War 1B.

What about Turner's Slugging? I've said before that slugging is a key stat for playing contender baseball. Cubs were .391 last year. Well, Turner Projects to be no higher than that number, meaning he doesn't add any slugging to the team average this year - if anything, he detracts from it. Not a good thing for a 1B/DH to set you backwards from your goal of more team slugging! I'd prefer a player with a .400+ slugging projection at the pricey bench bat.  

How Does Berti Fare overall? Berti is a fantastic signing. He can sub for Swanson, Hoerner, AND Busch, not to mention Shaw if he fails at 3rd. Furthermore, he has the potential to outhit Swanson or Hoerner against lefties, and match pace with Hoerner vs righties. Berti was pretty much the perfect guy to grab to fill in for the recovering Hoerner early on; and most of all, his glove is such a high floor that you don't worry about losing much WAR compared to two gold glove starters. Also, the guys he's backing up are OPS guys and good baserunners, and Berti is very solid in those stats. At 2-3MM, his contract was a steal, and easily worth 4-5 MM. In the worst case scenario, we lose Swanson for the season and Berti plays 2 WAR ball at SS and we pay him $3MM. Well, that's easily worth $6 MM, isn't it? I doubt the worst case happens, but if nagging injuries affect both Hoerner/Swanson, you can easily arrive at my quoted valuation. At his ceiling, Berti could even be worth Turner's $8.5 mm salary - Which Turner himself can't likely pull off!

How about Workman? Right now, he's a wild speculation. However, with his 20-30 SB target, and with a 20hr/600PA projection, much better than Mastrobouni or Madrigal, there's much to like. His glove is solid at 3rd and serviceable elsewhere in the infield, so he's a perfect platoon if Shaw needs to sit against any righties. Second, he could realistically outperform Hoerner or Swanson against some righty pitchers, meaning he's a potential increase in team hitting WAR. Third, the loss of glove performance when he subs is not bad enough to negate his hitting ability. Thus, projecting about 100 plate appearances, 300+ innings of junk time glove duty, and 40 pinch runner appearances in place of Suzuki/Busch/Turner/Catchers,  I'm being conservative to suggest .5 WAR but that's based on a difficult time getting on the field. I REALLY HOPE this guy works out because he looks like the convincing long term replacement for Mastrobouni, with a 3 WAR ceiling as a full-time player, similar to a Jon Berti from the opposite hand, but with more slugging. 

What if we End up With Nicky Lopez for Workman?  This takes us back to 0 WAR, with his great glove being negated by his lousy hitting. Not likely to cost us more than 1 real game - you know, a Cubs style doubleheader loss in the 11th inning when Lopez chokes on an easy at bat. That sorta thing.  

Example "Better Signings" Than Turner

These four are not exhaustive of the cheaper players with same or better fit to the Cubs roster, but they were the most obvious free agents at 1B. 

 All of these guys are younger, similarly experienced as a bench/rotational piece, could have been signed for $4-6 million less, and can play 4 positions compared to Turner's 1 position. 

I won't repeat my analysis of Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano, but I will remind readers that the former produced 2.1 War in the same plate appearances as Turner is projected for 2025. I Understand fans really are freaking out about backup first, but either of those guys could have taken reps there all spring training and have instead focused on their value in the outfield and DH as right handed lefty killers. I had Laureano as a 1 to 1.5 WAR player worth 5-7 Million, but being paid a bit less. I had Grichuk as 2 years, 20 Million to be "accurately priced", but he ended up going for $5 mil back to Arizona. So let's pretend a veteran 1b role seriously matters, which I'm not convinced it does:

#1: Donovan Solano. 

Here's a guy that signed for 1 year, 3.5 MM for the Marlins but would easily match or beat Turner's $8.5 MM valuation for the Cubs. In 2024, Solano slashed .286/.343/.417 in 309 plate appearances. He produced 8 HR last year, which puts him on pace to beat Turner by about 3 HR in a full season of duties. He's a career .381 slugger, with his last four seasons averaging around .400. His Steamer projection is 356 plate appearances, .6 War = roughly identical to Justin Turner. But he's also 3 years younger than Turner. He's been a plus-to-average glove all over the infield, and was a plus first baseman in relief last year, meaning he could handle junk time performance all over. Furthermore, he isn't projected to cost us much glove performance. All in all, he would be worth about 1.4 War in Turner's same 1.0 WAR insurance role, if Busch went Down, while also finding opportunities to sub at SS or 3B in low leverage situations. He was still avialable in January, and thus was only bypassed due to the Bregman chase.  

#2: Connor Joe. 

This one isn't really a "better" signing, so much as it is so much cheaper. Connor Joe signed a 1MM deal with the Pirates. Connor is a 1B who can play all 3 outfield positions - thus, unlike Turner, he can directly sub for PCA and add some bat.  Zips DC projects his value at .9 WAR across a similar number of appearances as Justin Turner or Donovan Solano. Frankly, he's a better glove now than both of the older vets, but has balanced splits that don't give him any clear platoon opportunities beyond 1B or Center field; and, just like Turner or Solano, it's a miniscule advantage over our starters. His career slugging is .391 and therefore doesn't add anything over 2024, but his career walk rate is very high and likely to exceed Turner or Solano in 2025 (Zips 11%).  In summation, Joe could have provided the same quality WAR contribution as Solano at a tiny price. He was gone months ago. If the Cubs were intending to cut Canario, Joe would have immediately filled the same "steady high hit tool" role as Solano or Turner that Canario can't fill.

#3: Mark Canha.

This one's a head scratcher. Unsure why he's still unsigned. A year younger than Solano at 36, Canha can cover 1B and OF like Connor Joe. His Zips DC projection is .8 WAR with 420 plate appearances. My estimate is he would have taken $3 million to play at first, outfield, and DH and could truly match Turner's supposed value at 8.5MM for a full season (1.2 WAR). He's barely a better glove at 1B than Turner but can actually repeat that performance at 4 positions.  

Suppose we were fine with Berti, Workman, and our AAA guys covering backup situations in the infield. His career slugging is .414 (>.391), and his hitting profile isn't far from Solano, but with a tad more upside power and a bit less average than Turner.

#4. Yasmani Grandal 

 Again, I'm not sure what the holdup is. Maybe injury? Grandal is a 1B and catcher- a valuable set of tools! He has a lifetime .424 slugging with .228 .304 .400 slashes from 2024. Definitely has the slugging to make a difference, but the hit tool isn't there. On the other hand, having a 3rd catcher as a 1B/DH is gold- and he's a catcher with several plus microtools who had a 1.6 WAR season in 2024. 

Personally, I LOVE 1b/catchers as a 3rd roster spot, because frankly a 3rd guy who fills in for junk time takes a lot of pressure of your two starting catchers in a 162 game season. If anyone gets hurt, Ballesteros is the next man up, but wouldn't it be nice to have zero catcher worries and also improve team slugging? Yes. 

Trade Pieces: The final evaluation. 

Its always a better situation to sign a player that has net positive trade value to the league. IF the Cubs find they need a change of direction, some team out there will want a catcher (Grandal) or a 4-position utility guy with a plus hit tool (the other guys). Nobody wants Turner or his salary. Counsell is STUCK with him unless he cuts him. All the other guys could be traded for a hot upgrade player in a package - either pitcher or a replacement starter. As I said, all the suggestions i made would give this trade option a real life. 

Final Conclusion: How much does it matter?

Overall, Justin Turner set us back:

1) at least $4 million in extra salary over the alternatives

 2) multiple positions of glove coverage

3) lowers our WAR ceiling by about 1 compared to the best options

4) lowers our WAR floor by about .2 compared to the other options

5) We're stuck with the money- nobody will trade, so we have to cut him if we want a mid-season upgrade

6) We have 4 million less to pursue a final pitcher this year, with only about $20 million left to spend

My preferred signing? The player with the most trade value and slugging at the lowest price:

Donovan Solano for $4 mm + $1 MM incentives.   

As I said, I'm okay with the signing, but it only makes sense after everyone else is off the board, and if Canha/Grandal have bad health projections we don't know about. At half the price, Solano is the most likely player to have an up year and outperform Tucker, while also providing extra insurance bat at every infield position. 

How much does it matter? Mostly his mid-season trade value. Solano's tradability means he could be moved for ANY infield position in need, if the situation arises; or, in a package deal for a replacement starting pitcher. By the time that decision needs to be made, It is possible that Jonathan Long would be ready and able to cover backup 1B. He's already looking like a guy who can contribute in the majors for short stretches. 

In a perfect world, Grandal would repeat his 2024 performance as a 2025 Cub. But his downside signals are too strong.