Warren Brusstar

The #1 record plays the wild card, unless the wild card team is from their own division. If that's the case, the #1 division winner plays the #3 division winner.

Felix Pie. He has to develop and grow as a player somehow, you know? Pie v. LHP in 2007: For Iowa - .190/.254./.293 For the Cubs - .114/.139/.114 You were joking, right? There are nine games left in the season. Now is not the time to develop young players (unless those same young players give you the best chance to win right now). There's little dispute that Murton and Soto give the Cubs the best chance to win right now. Anyone suggesting that Pie gives the Cubs the best chance today v. a LHP is so oblivious to the actual facts that their opinion shouldn't ever be taken seriously.

It was stupid last night. But even acknowledging how dumb it was last night, tonight's game situation -- down 2 runs -- doesn't make it a plausible move even for a dummy like Yost.

Bring it. Wil Carroll had a blurb this week that Duke's velocity is down *significantly* since coming back from his injury. The Cubs should light him up like a pinball machine. Gorzelanny, on the other hand....

That's because you're so much smarter that all of the rest of us! :roll: And of course he'd be fine. That Marmol would be a fantastic starter too is an entirely unremarkable proposition.

Great! When do they do the flip? nitpicky, but.... so homefield advantage for the WS is determined by the outcome of an exhibition game in which half the players probably don't care and the game is not managed to have the best available players on the field for the vast majority of the game, or in the case of this year the best hitter in baseball did not even play, but homefield for a one game playoff is determined by a coin flip, even though one team beat the other 9 out of 15 games this year? at the same time, if two teams in a division are tied at the end of the year and one of them is the wildcard, they crown the team with the best vs. record as the division champ and the vs. loser as the wildcard. I can understand flipping for a one game playoff to determine homefield for a playoff to determine wildcard, or if there is a three way tie, but shouldn't you get some credit for beating down the opponent you end the season tied with? Yes. We are already won the coin flip in any event. So we would host a one game playoff.

If professional baseball organizations generally did things that optimized their available resources, you would certainly have an insight into that process. But they don't. Professional baseball organizations -- and particularly the Cubs -- are beholden to conventional practices that a landslide of analysis demonstrates are irrational. So while you certainly have insight into the thought processes of terbaccy chewing "baseball men," it assumes to much to suggest that by virtue of those interactions you somehow are better-positioned to understand Theriot's value relative to other players. You're not.

Lou said last week that he's planning on pitching Z, Hill, and Lilly (in that order) during the last series in Cincy. So that would leave Marquis to start a one game playoff.

Piniella has already said that he intends to go Z, Hill, and Lilly (in that order) in the final series and that they don't know who is pitching the last game in Florida. So piecing all that together, I'm fairly certain that they're planning on going this way: Tuesday Carlos Zambrano vs. Aaron Harrang Wednesday Ted Lilly vs. Tom Shearn Thursday off Friday Jason Marquis vs. Paul Maholm Saturday Rich Hill vs. John Van Benschoten Sunday Carlos Zambrano vs. Tom Gorzelanney FROM HERE ON IS SPECULATION Monday off Tuesday Ted Lilly vs. Dontrelle Willis Wednesday Jason Marquis vs. Scott Olsen Thursday TBD (Marshall or Trachsel) vs. Byung-Hyun Kim Friday Carlos Zambrano vs. Aaron Harrang Saturday Rich Hill vs. Tom Shearn Sunday Ted Lilly vs. Matt Belisle

CUBS' remaining schedule (12).... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter Opp Starter 151 Mon 09/17 Cincinnati N - Hill Arroyo 152 Tue 09/18 Cincinnati N - Zambrano Harang 153 Wed 09/19 Cincinnati N - Lilly Shearn 154 Fri 09/21 Pittsburgh - Marquis Maholm 155 Sat 09/22 Pittsburgh - Hill Van Benschoten 156 Sun 09/23 Pittsburgh - Zambrano Gorzelanny 157 Tue 09/25 @ Florida N - Lilly Willis 158 Wed 09/26 @ Florida N - Marquis Mitre 159 Thu 09/27 @ Florida - TBD Olsen 160 Fri 09/28 @ Cincinnati N - Zambrano Arroyo 161 Sat 09/29 @ Cincinnati N - Hill Harang 162 Sun 09/30 @ Cincinnati - Lilly Shern Your projected starters for the Cubs are wrong, I believe. With the days off on the 20th and 24th, my understanding is that they're going as I've corrected it above. They haven't named a starter for the 27th, but it's probably going to be Trachsel or Marshall.

Despite what the records say (and they're pretty close in the standings), the Cardinals are not a better team than the Reds.

Good start. Let's jump all over 'em in the 1st

I hope Cliff's random power surge can go one more night I don't understand why people are surprised that Floyd is hitting home runs. He's done it his entire career when he hasn't been on the DL. Because he has 17 home runs in his last 500 at bats?

I'm guessing they'll go: Soriano Fontenot ARam Ward Kendall Floyd Jones Theriot Trachsel

Lineup will change because Lee is a scratch. He fouled a ball off his knee and can't run. Ward will play first. No batting order yet. Did this happen during BP today? I think Lee could use a day off, so I'm not too freaked out about this. Hopefully its just a day though and he's rested and ready to go this weekend. He took one off his ankle during the game last night.

On average, it costs him less than one at-bat per week. I hope you're not in the "bat Soriano fifth camp." Because doing that would cost Soriano four times the number of at-bats than batting Ramirez fifth instead of fourth.

Inserting a lefty between two righties is strategically sound, dude. I know Dusty gets hammered for that, but it actually is. I thought the prevailing opinion on NSBB was the Bill James "it doesn't actually matter where you bat" idea. As far as I know, those studies don't include lefty/righy splits in their underlying assumptions. Hitting two left-handers in consecutive order makes it to easy for the opposing manager to utilize a LOOGY without making him face a right-handed hitter.

Inserting a lefty between two righties is strategically sound, dude. I know Dusty gets hammered for that, but it actually is.

I think the 27th will be either a Marshall or Trachsel start. In a perfect world, the Cubs win 12-11 tonight and Trachsel is DFAed after the game.

I'd be surprised if Soto starts tonight with Kendall being 18 for 38 against Woody Williams in his career with a couple of doubles and a home run. Too bad the good part of his career was a long time ago. The part where he's OPSed .771 for the Cubs hasn't been too bad. I'd rather they play Soto too, but it's not like Kendall hasn't been pulling his weight.

Hawkins '04 = Dempster '07. IT'S GONNA HAPPEN. I repeat.... Hawkins '04 = Dempster '07

Jones got a get-me-over fastball and hit a rocket. I have no idea how somehow can complain about that.

Sacrifice bunts are good strategy in very limited circumstances -- when one run strategies maximize win expectations. Both times Kendall bunted, playing for one run made sense.

Hawkins '04 = Dempster '07. IT'S GONNA HAPPEN.

If Trachsel is on a short leash for this game, hopefully Marshall is ready in the bullpen to fill in any missing innings and receives a chance to earn his job back. Marshall is supposed to pitch in one of the games on Saturday, so I don't know how much he'd be used on Thursday. Kevin Hart will probably be available to pitch, unless Marquis flops tomorrow night. I think Trachsel is going to be used as long as possible with 4 games in 3 days against the Cards this weekend. Marshall is scheduled to pitch game 2 of the DH on Saturday, so he's not likely to be used out of the pen. I'd much rather see them go with Hart or Gallagher as a long man...or better yet...not need to use a long man... i just hope everyone is mentally preparing themselves for a playoff roster that includes Trachsel but not Marshall Disagree, they'd go with Marshall for a potential roster due to his leftiness. you're right, they'll keep them both and leave Murton off I don't know what's the point of having both Tracshel and Marshall - how many long men do you need, esp. with 4-man rotations (and sometimes 3-man rotations)? I heard an interview with Trachsel right after he started, and he was saying things like "I dont think they want to put a guy whos never pitched out of the pen, in the pen during a playoff run so I expect to be starting". Granted this could just be Trachsel talking, but I have a feeling Hendry has told him hed be starting, and not used out of the pen. I've heard Piniella say likewise -- that they won't use Trachsel in the bullpen.