CuseCubFan69

It was obvious that by 99% I was just saying "vast majority" and not referencing some advanced statistical study on base stealing. That didn't really need any explaining. Are you implying that this is an actual opinion that you hold? I'm confused. Anyway, this is a stupid offshoot of the actual argument, so unless you have anything else to add, I think we can both agree that this is going nowhere. My point is that if something has a low percentage of working why keep doing it? I think we agree then? Attempting to steal third has a very low rate of success/usefulness, and should only be tried during extreme circumstances. I don't know what point you're bringing up with the 9% homerun thing, though. I don't think the percentage of batters that go to the plate trying to hit a homerun every at bat is very high, but the amount of runners attempting to steal third when they attempt to steal third is probably 100%. I'll give you that! I still disagree with you about the .01% thing though. I'd love to see a stat that shows how well this works for Lou this year, stealing third that is but I still don't think you can effectively put a number on this. Why do I think this. Say Soriano gets thrown out at 3rd making it 2 outs. DeRosa then singles. Who's to say that he would have had the same pitch and location if Soriano is on? Who's to say that DeRosa didn't change his approach at the plate? IMO there too many hidden or unknown variables for this to be a 93% thing.

It was obvious that by 99% I was just saying "vast majority" and not referencing some advanced statistical study on base stealing. That didn't really need any explaining. Are you implying that this is an actual opinion that you hold? I'm confused. Anyway, this is a stupid offshoot of the actual argument, so unless you have anything else to add, I think we can both agree that this is going nowhere. My point is that if something has a low percentage of working why keep doing it?

Likewise. :D Opps! Yes I was!

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up. Like the .01 percent? No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him. Someone on second is already in scoring position, why risk the out just to get him more in scoring position? It's not worth it 99% of the time. How about that one? Do I really need to preface posts like that with a "just my opinion"? 99%, 92%, whatever. But I suppose I had to?

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad. It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd. That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that. What point did I make? I haven't made a single post in this thread until now. I read the other thread about Lou and his steal efficiency that you wrote and put it here instead.

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up. Like the .01 percent? No, that is how often I would actually like Soriano to attempt a steal of third base with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett and Jones coming up behind him. Someone on second is already in scoring position, why risk the out just to get him more in scoring position? It's not worth it 99% of the time. How about that one?

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up. Like the .01 percent?

That's specious reasoning. An AB can have multiple outcomes that result in a runner reaching without an out. A stolen base attempt has 2 outcomes. Soriano had a 68% success rate stealing last season. He had 3 net SB's. That's bad. It is a bad idea, with few exceptions, to take a runner at 2nd and have him try and steal 3rd. That's my point soccer, the few exceptions and I have never said all the time. You pick your spots and the post BbB just made gives me more confidence that Lou will do just that.

Back up what? Your numbers helped prove my point by saying that if the situation exists you can help your team score. I didn't see it say that you can't steal 3rd and if you did 100% of the time it hurts your team. I saw 92.7 which means that if you do it correctly you can take advantage. Also, these numbers are flat across the board numbers and doesn't pertain to certain situations/matchups. Needing to succeed at something between 70 and 95% of the time for it to be worth it isn't a good thing. The onus is on you to provide statistical proof to back up your claims, as I have done mine. The odds of successfully stealing a base are lower than the BA's of the guys who immediately follow Soriano in the batting order. This adds further weight to the assertion that Soriano stealing 3rd so he can score on a groundout/flyball/wild pitch/balk/passed ball isn't worth the corresponding risk. If you feel that there are situations that warrant the risk, and can provide numbers to back the assertion that those situations are going to occur often enough to where they outweigh the built in risk, by all means, provide them. Until you do, the notion that stealing 3rd is an acceptable option with Soriano isn't going to wash. It's nothing more than rhetoric. You supplied the proof for me. The 92.7 is a flat rate correct? You think that that's an acceptable level of risk? If you have a 9% failure rate it becomes not worth it. So you would completely abandon stealing third? What you've shown is a flat rate and the stats reflect all players that have attempted to steal third. Let me ask you this. How often does a player hit a home run per at bat? Is it less than 9% and if it is shouldn't he forgo that and just try to hit a single which increases his chances to get on base?

It's pretty cool when you have the 2 top teams in the nation but really counts is the last poll. I think the big dance is going fun this year.

Back up what? Your numbers helped prove my point by saying that if the situation exists you can help your team score. I didn't see it say that you can't steal 3rd and if you did 100% of the time it hurts your team. I saw 92.7 which means that if you do it correctly you can take advantage. Also, these numbers are flat across the board numbers and doesn't pertain to certain situations/matchups. Needing to succeed at something between 70 and 95% of the time for it to be worth it isn't a good thing. The onus is on you to provide statistical proof to back up your claims, as I have done mine. The odds of successfully stealing a base are lower than the BA's of the guys who immediately follow Soriano in the batting order. This adds further weight to the assertion that Soriano stealing 3rd so he can score on a groundout/flyball/wild pitch/balk/passed ball isn't worth the corresponding risk. If you feel that there are situations that warrant the risk, and can provide numbers to back the assertion that those situations are going to occur often enough to where they outweigh the built in risk, by all means, provide them. Until you do, the notion that stealing 3rd is an acceptable option with Soriano isn't going to wash. It's nothing more than rhetoric. You supplied the proof for me. The 92.7 is a flat rate correct?

Let's hope it stays that way.

Back up what? Your numbers helped prove my point by saying that if the situation exists you can help your team score. I didn't see it say that you can't steal 3rd and if you did 100% of the time it hurts your team. I saw 92.7 which means that if you do it correctly you can take advantage. Also, these numbers are flat across the board numbers and doesn't pertain to certain situations/matchups.

I talked to the Syracuse Chiefs trainer and he said that a lot of the players don't work hard or see the value of keeping in shape until they get hurt. They have this "I'm indestructible" feeling and just think they are every going to need to do the things they need to do to stay healthy and prolong their careers and for many it's too late when they finally realize this. some like Ken griffey Jr. it took a few more injuies to figure it out. I just can't imagine not having a personal off season training, if nothing more they are tax deductable. If I were playing and had the leverage I'd negotiate for one in my contract, and a chef too. If I were a team owner, I'd seriously think about giving the services to my "franchize" players. To me it makes good business sense, like investing in routine maintenance. You'd think after getting 10 or so million a year you could afford one yourself.

Did you even read that? You have to succeed at least 70% of the time on average with 0 or 1 outs. Soriano was below 70% success rate last season. You'll run yourself into unnecessary outs. You will lose scoring opportunities just for the sake of creating a situation where someone might score a manufactured run. The Cubs appear to be heavy on the SLG side and light on the OBP side of the OPS stat. OPS being the most telling for winning ball clubs. With that in mind, I'd rather not see a ton of stolen base attempts from the Fonz. If he's on the chance that he gets driven home via an extra base hit from Lee, Aramis, JJ, or Floyd are better if he's not sitting in the dugout. I agree that he should cut down his attempts but it has to remain an option.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/10/net_stolen_base.php Sure. Here are some numbers that show the epic stupidity of stealing 3rd. : . So it's a bad move between 70 and 94% of the time. You need to succeed at those rates to make it worthwhile. Now, as far as Soriano being a weapon? Let them drop some knowledge on you: 3 net stolen bases? But wait, he stole 41 in total! He must be a weapon because conventional wisdom says being 40/40 is awesome and stolen bases help teams win close games! That's the guy people want stealing 3rd. The guy with 3 net steals last season, when he stole 41 overall. Now, does anyone here care to cite any numbers backing up their points, or is it all just old school baseball nonsense with nothing to back it up? How did Soriano do when he attempted to steal third which was the point of the debate? Number 2...the non threat to ever steal third gets the pitcher in a comfort zone and on rhythm. Also as I said earlier taking advantage of certain opportunites that present themselves is something a good manager should do and sitting back not doing so isn't taking advantage of an excellent opportunity.

I agree and add to see if a veteran that is making a comeback still has the skill to compete at the MLB level.

The chances of scoring by being on 3rd as opposed to 2nd aren't improved enough to outweigh the negative of the likelihood of being thrown out and killing the rally altogether. That is if you look at all the stats and that's what they say but I'm not even sure that's true. I think it's foolish to throw away an option that may present itself to your teams advantage.

NSBB presents the stat of the day!

If Freddy Garcia is pitching or Mike Piazza is catching, you almost have to try to steal third. In other situations it's a dicey move, but sometimes you give it a shot. And how often is that going to happen with Piazza DH'ing in Oakland, and Garcia pitching for Philly? I'm thinking his point is having a poor pitching/catching combo in holding and throwing runners out. It's still a stupid risk. How often are you going to have a wild pitch or passed ball? You're in scoring position; why run yourself out of scoring position? You're far more likely to kill a rally that create a run. You have the numbers for that or is that your opinion? I see you forgot to add a Sac fly or groundball. Do you actually think it's easier to drive in a runner from 2nd than it is a runner from 3rd?

If Freddy Garcia is pitching or Mike Piazza is catching, you almost have to try to steal third. In other situations it's a dicey move, but sometimes you give it a shot. And how often is that going to happen with Piazza DH'ing in Oakland, and Garcia pitching for Philly? I'm thinking his point is having a poor pitching/catching combo in holding and throwing runners out.

If he had waited a week, he would have received the full $5M. Instead, he gets nothing. Classy move by Foulke. How many years do you need to get the full pension and it's perks?

If Freddy Garcia is pitching or Mike Piazza is catching, you almost have to try to steal third. In other situations it's a dicey move, but sometimes you give it a shot. Also a lot of lefties have a horrible move to second.

Maybe he just wrote Big Z and left for the day. The man is a character to say the least.

Maybe even Theriot could take advantage that situation. Who really knows how or when it could happen but even 2 or 3 times could make a big difference on who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't. IMO little things like this add up and could make a 5 game swing throughout the season. Not only that but as I have my rosey glasses on it also may win a playoff game. I just don't like to limit my options.