Shilzzz

Moving definitively is not the answer. This is pretty dumb that it keeps going on and on and on, but saying he MUST be traded or kept absolutely by the end of the week or something is how trouble like this starts in the first place.

Fangraphs Non-Tender Analysis: Few other pitchers noted there include Anthony Reyes and Scott Olsen.

2011- get guys who can't find the camera light

I meant it more in the context of there being analysts that aren't former players.

of course Gammons is a Red Sox homer, but there was a very good article on BP the other day which stated that more or less places like Baseball Prospectus wouldn't exist today without Gammons. Probably a tad overstated, but Gammons has always had an open mind to things, and embraced stats before there was an Olney or Stark.

the website i got the pic from said it was in the clubhouse and it is what the players use. certainly could be wrong.

i had no idea that this: is what players have to use. wow. awful.

sorry, i guess i didn't frame the actual question properly. i want to know if anyone knows a way to email hendry or even someone else in the hierarchy. maybe it won't make a difference, it most certainly won't, but i'd at least like to make my informed, honest opinion known. edit: just to kind of answer what you were saying, what good is a big free agent going to do when he is bunting a runner to second in the first inning? perhaps that's extreme, but i just don't want to have to go through that on any level.

Sheets reportedly wants $12m/year, so if the Cubs can't afford a guy who actually pitched last year...

Well, at least we're not the only fans of a team whose management is still in the dark ages.

this is the misconception. he certainly doesn't throw complete games ever, but the following were the innings pitched in each Harden start in 09: 6 3 6 6 3 2 7 6 6 6 6 5 5.1 7 2 5 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 and, here is a statement from the article on cubs.com when Harden was dealt to the Cubs, which is all i could quickly find about his innings per start in 2008 (this is concerning his time in Oakland): So, yeah, he has issues with going deep into games, but with the kind of work he provides, if the Cubs had a more resolved bullpen that can shut a team down in the last three innings, there is less to worry about than people say.

this organization has disaster written all over it for the next several years. #-o edit: and i'm serious when i ask this, but i really want to email hendry. maybe he never reads it, maybe he does and doesnt' give a rip, but i really want to give him a piece of my mind. i really don't look forward to being a cub fan over the next 5 years or so, outside of guys like castro and aramis.

I don't think you are correct about what Theo values. Bill James was on WGN radio a few weeks ago and said while the Boston front office doesn't value stats like RBIs, they do take into consideration the player's personality. He said they would not have been interested in Bradley. Interestingly enough though, he told Kaplan if the Cubs don't want Zambrano to give the Red Sox a call. I think Kaplan was shocked by this because it came at a time when he was saying Zambrano isn't a good pitcher because he only won 9 games in 2009. I really think Theo just likes to advertise that he doesn't subscribe to conventional wisdom to evaluate baseball players. He did hire Bill James.

Thats true, but this knowledge comes from the players and from a recovery standpoint. Of course like anything some guys can adjust to it better then others. But alot of pitchers need to be a on a regular routine to have the most success. It's a bit different then some 45 year old reporter saying Derrek Lee isn't a good middle of the order hitter, because he's only had over 100 RBI's twice in his career, or some garbage about Zambrano being bad because he had only nine wins last season. Again, you will never be taken seriously until what you say has substance.

Now with the Rays close to dealing for Rafael Soriano, it probably will make it even harder to send Bradley to TB. Good luck, Jim!

He did for a few starts in 08, but not so much last season. He didn't have alot of those chances in 09 though. Even though Marshall pitched pretty well as a starter last year before getting pulled from the rotation. Which was basically because Wells was pitching well, and Marshall was LH and the Cubs needed a LH pitcher in the pen. Well I guess we can look over Rich Harden starts last year and look the effect they had on the team. But right now I don't have the time to do it. Overall though it's pretty common knowledge that it's pretty hard to shuffle players around. Especially pitchers who's arms get use to throwing 1 or 2 innings, and aren't often stretched out enough to just go out there out of the blue and throw 5-6 innings. Of course if the Cubs have a really good deep pen, and have a good young starter they wanna keep waiting in Triple A. Then the domino effect isn't as bad with having a guy like Harden on the roster. But if you got young struggling relievers in your pen, and gotta shuffle guys back and forth from the pen to the rotation. It does have a pretty big effect on your team as a whole. Pretty common knowledge is that RBI and Batting Average for hitters and Wins for pitchers are all very important stats when evaluating players, so that means nothing.

i agree w everything you said there

Rich Harden Cubs 10.91 Tim Lincecum Giants 10.42 J Verlander Tigers 10.09 Jon Lester Red Sox 9.96 Y Gallardo Brewers 9.89 Javier Vazquez Braves 9.77 J Sanchez Giants 9.75 C Kershaw Dodgers 9.74 Zack Greinke Royals 9.50 Ricky Nolasco Marlins 9.49 Top k/9 minimum 120IP in 2009. Some good company there. That Harden is .51 higher than Lincecum, who is only .32 higher than Verlander, and the rates bunch up quickly thereafter, speaks even more highly of how filthy Harden is.

Do you, perhaps, have anything other than conjecture to make this argument? I pay attention to those human elements, but think that you are weighing those far too heavily. I am willing to change my opinion here, because I would like to feel more comfortable about losing Harden for nothing, but you have said nothing that's even come close to changing my mind.

Well even if they aren't interested in Bradley, I would imagine that Theo and James value MB closer to his actual value than Hendry does.

Where did you expect Hendry to get the money for to sign Harden? We can't even sign a mid level player like Cameron or Byrd without dumping part of Bradley's salary. In regard to the Twins situation, it is possible that Hendry felt that he would rather take a chance that Ricketts would allow him payroll space to resign Harden, and it was better to take a chance with that than take some B-, C prospects from the Twins. Or its entirely possible that his medical records are so bad that the Hendry didn't want to blow $7 or 8MM on a pitcher that wouldn't contribute much to an already cash strapped team. In some ways I guess it is fitting to allow Hendry to hang himself with his past poor payroll management. It is just extremely painful to watch so far. That's when having a GM who is actually creative with salary and players comes in handy. That we can't keep the guy who is the arguably most talented pitcher at a reasonable cost without netting some sort of compensation is exactly why the Cubs more than likely won't compete next year.

Safe bet is going a little far, but that would be possible. Still ask your self who pitches in those other 10-16 starts? What does it do to your bullpen when Harden leaves the game in the 3rd or 4th inning? Stop just looking at Harden numbers and thinking would be worth it, and consider what it does to your team. do you really need this explained to you? If the team is paying Sean Marshall, what, 1m, and pays Harden 7.5, that equates to a full year of a starting pitcher at 8.5m, correct? Okay, then, here's what you do: take 80 innings of Marshall weighted and 120 innings of Harden weighted out, and see what kind of numbers you end up with. Now, is that pitcher worth 8.5 million dollars? All this other stuff about domino effects is poppycock posturing to set some sort of stance no one can argue against.

Which isn't enough, not to mention that K/9 is one of Harden issues. Striking out all of those hitters usually makes him throw tons of pitches. Which is why he struggles to give the team innings even when healthy. You need to have money to be able to do that. People on here are really overreacting about that. Harden is very injury prone and the Cubs would be risk paying him 10m. Which is WAY too high for a pitcher who might pitch 140 innings, and could be alot less. IMO this is about the same as Kerry Wood last season. It would have been nice to offer him it. But at the same time I don't wanna get stuck with him accepting it either. You aren't paying enough attention to the lack of innings and the lack and the injury risk involved with Harden. Paying him 7.5-10m is a risky price not a reasonable price. The Cubs have been able to patch together pretty good rotations over the last 7-8 years(besides 06). I would give them the benefit of the doubt when putting a rotation together. Remember Randy Wells never should have done what he did last year in the first place. I think we would all agree he's not that good, but that doesn't mean he can't be a serviceable 4th starter. He wouldn't be the first guy who got by with average stuff, because he threw strikes and knows how to pitch. Same with Gorzelanny and Marshall who both have had success in the past. 1) Why do you think I threw in the caveat about when he pitches? Now, could Harden stand to be more efficient? Absolutely. However, that the thing that makes Harden most successful is also his biggest pitfall does not make him something not worth the 7.5 mil he commands. My thought is that either he is being coached poorly as far as release points or he is bullheaded when it comes to listening to coaching, but i've never heard anything along the lines of Harden being difficult to coach. Those strikeouts, and the fact that he misses so many bats is what makes him successful, because there is no chance of that hitter to get on base or drive in runs. And while that may make him struggle to get more innings, the innings he does pitch he is very tough, and I'm not quite sure you understand, or maybe you just severely underestimate, exactly how important a role and difficult to find that is. Why do you think we lived with Wood and Prior for so long? 2) You are the same poster who, iirc, is in favor of Grabow's contract. Therefore I will not acknowledge your opinion of how a team spends money, specifically on pitching. 3) As a simple addendum, which i think goes to show your faulty line of logic here, you are stretching it by throwing out that 10m figure. I think you know this, too, so to do that just undermines your argument. If Lincecum is lucky, he gets $15m in arbitration this time, and he's won two cy youngs while being fully healthy. That you can argue for Grabow's contract and support the course of action taken on Harden is ridiculous. I'm sorry, but it is, and how you don't see it is beyond me.

a bradley/hermedia set of options really wouldn't be bad, and would come much cheaper than bay or holliday. i think theo worries more about productivity than chemistry, and could see him vulturing all over hendry's corpse.

Regardless of whatever someone may or may not consider a small sample size, pitchers with the k/9 numbers Harden posts each year are elite, not just okay or decent. There is an argument to be made about his injury history, but it's clear by now what Harden is when he pitches, which is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. That Hendry didn't offer arbitration to Harden is one of the most mindblowingly stupid decisions he has made, and he has made plenty. Put Harden up against anyone that ends up taking the rotation spots not filled by Zambrano and Dempster, and Harden wins. I don't care if you say it's 70% Harden 30% Gorzalanny, Harden still wins. Yet, here we sit, waiting for our general manager to trade Milton Bradley for pennies on the dollar while a dominate pitcher is had by another team who doesn't compensate the Cubs even one cent. If Hendry doesn't believe that Harden can last another year for fear of injury, then make your mind up beforehand and take what you can from the Twins. If Hendry still believed the Cubs could make the playoffs at that time, fine, but at least offer arbitration; either you get a part to full time stud pitcher at a reasonable cost, or you get a draft pick. But because Bradley threw a ball into the bleachers with 2 outs once, and was generally cantankerous with a relentless media, his focus can't be distracted by smart baseball decisions, which he seemingly hasn't been capable of since 2007 or so. I really hope he understands that he's not going to survive a year of Randy Wells, Gorz, and Samardzija in the rotation.