Bull

Unfortunately, it is all we have.

Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime. It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving. Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline. Players peak earlier than you're thinking. All those guys are pure decline age. Everyone declines forever. There are no peaks. I thought we had backed the peak age back from 31 years ago to 28 today. And just because you peaked in high school doesn’t mean we all did. Also, if peak is earlier than 28, why are we upset they want to trade Bryant? I mean, I am, but maybe I need to take a step back.

I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point. From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers. While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have. The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same. The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense. Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here. Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime. It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving. Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.

I think this is because I beetlejuiced him a few weeks ago. Beware the return of Antonio Alfonseca.

It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner. You're still putting a guy who gets on base the most in the spot that gets the most ABs. Stack Rizzo/KB/Schwarbs 1-3 vs RHP and let them get on base and slug in front of Javy, Willy, etc. Good things will happen if you have your 1-3 hitters consistently getting on base. What good is a "middle of the order" bat if he has a guy hitting in front of him with a sub .300 OBP like Rizzo and KB have had for the last two years? Get some certainty up there and let the rest trickle down essentially. I'm not too worried about his base running, it sucks but it's not like he needs to start stealing or anything. Who is this “KB” you speak of?

We could call him Reinal as a hat tip to the days of Rnny Ceen and Rey rnez. Reinal failure

Consider the person posting Just highlighting how ridiculous the lengths are that people need to go to to defend AA.

You have to realize that he is just entering his age 26 season. He has a proven track record and his best days are ahead of him. Arismendy Alcantara only played through his age 25 season and posted a -.5 CAREER fWAR, a number Almora is well past even given his disastrous 2019. Pitching phenom Adbert Alzolay is just entering his age 25 season, but with a -.2 fWAR last year, he'd have to meet his steamer projections this year just to own a career 0 fWAR. Cubs legend Antonio Alfonseca had played only one season through age 25 and posted a whopping 0 fWAR. Almora has a career fWAR of 2.1 (2.4 bWAR) even after a down 2019. He projects to bounce back this year. Time will only tell if his career will endure as long as Alfonseca's 11 years of dominance (a career 2.2 fWAR through age 35 vs Albert's 2.1 through age 25) in this age of "next up" obsession with cost-controlled youngsters, but at this stage, he's clearly the better player. I know this is a small sample size, but its a scientific one. I think we can all agree that the data shows that Almora will be at least an above-average player, and possibly 75th percentile or above. I, for one, look forward to giving him the chance to turn it around.

And, if I remember correctly it will be their second year in a row. Red Sox on pace to go over three years in a row. These are the only two teams to exceed it more than one year running. Have the Dodgers or Giants gone over back to back or three times in recent history? Someone else will know better than me I'm sure, but I didn't think so.

Yeah that's the part I'm mad about to. But this whole league wide collusion thing...I assume the team that would trade for him is planning on paying him, right? League-wide collusion except for the Yankees, who are some $50MM over the threshold. But then the Yankees have been a useful bogeyman for the small-market teams for nearly 30 years. And, if I remember correctly it will be their second year in a row. Red Sox on pace to go over three years in a row. These are the only two teams to exceed it more than one year running.

Trading him now so that they don't have to look cheap for not paying him in 2 years. Also some nonsense about how they tried really hard to get him to sign an extension but they couldn't so they had to try to make the team better by trading their best player. Yeah that's the part I'm mad about to. But this whole league wide collusion thing...I assume the team that would trade for him is planning on paying him, right? Provided it doesn't cause them to go over the luxury tax more than two years in a row.

I agree with you, but not the post you quoted. Teams have decided to treat the luxury tax as a salary cap. I think Ricketts is doing what he’s told. By....who? Who do you think is in charge here? The owners, in collusion. But I don’t think Ricketts has a lot of pull among them as fairly recent member of the club.

Yes....Ricketts wants the Cubs underneath the lux tax. That's what is driving this. Very frustrating. I agree with you, but not the post you quoted. Teams have decided to treat the luxury tax as a salary cap. I think Ricketts is doing what he’s told.

It’s pretty clear nothing about you wants to be positive. That said, you’re in a pretty good place. Your negativity is a perfect fit for this cubs offseason. I may even join you!

I know everyone wants to get paid, but I could see this as Rizzo reaching out to take a longer, lower contract to “help” the Cubs keep Bryant. I think Rizzo is as nostalgic as we are and then some, Bobby Bonilla him. Pay him 3 million a year forever. Pay his great-grandkids 3 million a year until they die.

idk...the heyman tweet makes it seem like the door might at least be somewhat open (he mentioned him for a reason) if the nationals don't get donaldson. it also is almost literally saying nothing, like most of his tweets, so whatever. i wouldn't call it a giant hole, tho. bryant makes them better the next two years. then they're stuck with worse-hitter-than-Albert-Almora in CF barring other major moves Throw Almora in. Problem solved. /s

That's funny, right there. All this talk of contending teams trying to free up payroll in a "sport with no salary cap" is silly, though. The luxury tax is effectively a salary cap, and its obvious that teams are treating it as one over the past few years. Why do we so easliy accept a salary cap in other sports, but in baseball the mention of it is unforgivable?

OTOH trading Contreras to sign Chirinos is pretty pointless. Chirinos probably isn't a worthwhile upgrade on defense and his 2020 salary will probably be higher than Contreras' I mean, if you ignore what you would be receiving in return for Contreras, sure. Regardless of that, I'm still betting on Contreras vs a combination along those lines. Neither of those two really strike me as a dynamic starter, and I'm not aware of some big platoon splits that would lead into getting the best out of both of them. What you could get for contreras minus what you could get for caratini.

ahh, the Tommy LaStella era. Greatest time in the history of Cubs baseball.

Have you ever considered officially changing your name to “Devils Advocate” Sofa's representation is in pro per.

I’m sure they can punish them now, but it’s too hard to do anything about the results of the 2017 season (if that’s what you are asking). For example, what if the Dodgers were doing something too? They sure aren’t going to admit it. That’s too speculative. But more to your point of the results of the 2017 season, if you’re giving reasons why not to hand the championship to the dodgers, the main reason is that there’s every chance the Yankees would have beaten the dodgers, or the other team the astros cheated, the Red Sox. Or did they cheat their way into the playoffs. How far do you go back? Did their mamas cheat on their daddies? We just don’t know.

Stop arguing about stupid stuff and tell me why my post above about called strikes is wrong and dumb. Thanks.

Kyle struck out a lot less in the second half, and I think that accounts for the change. How do you account for the fewer K's? I think reputation. Early in the year, Kyle got rung up on a lot of balls out of the zone. As umpires got feedback on their varied degrees of awfulness, I think they learned that Kyle is always right. He now has the reputation that "if Kyle Schwarber didn't swing at it, it wasn't a strike." I think this changes everything forever for Kyle. I'd like to see some stats on called strikes and called strikes out of the zone in the first vs. second half if anyone knows where I can find those.

I won't say that I'm not disappointed in how the last two seasons played out, but I do want to take a step back (I know we've done that many times) and appreciate. I just took this sporcle quiz. It's out of date, but if you update it through this season, Among Cubs All-Time HR leaders, Jason Heyward and Ian Happ are just off the leaderboard and could jump on next year. Addison Russell is 47th with 60 Contreras is 41st with 67 Baez and Schwarber both have 110, good for a tie for 18th Bryant is tied for 16th with 138 (and poised to pass Mark Grace, and potentially Andre Dawson, and Derrick Lee next year) Rizzo is 8th with 217 and should pass Gabby Hartnett and Aramis Ramirez next year. This has been (and continues to be) the greatest Cubs team in history.

I love that photo. It's really cool. considering all of his wizardly slides, its not the best one out there. god I hope we never trade him Does the game have a “swim move?” Or a “stop time” cheat code?”