Hairyducked Idiot

The HR variation is pretty extreme.

Huh? I wasn't talking about overall "progress" or anything of the sort. I was talking about the major league roster for the immediate upcoming offseason and the next one after it. Have we gotten to the point where even posts that have nothing to do with the overall state of the organization have to be tagged with "And let's not forget that our front office has done an amazing job adding minor league talent" or else? Soler, Almora, Baez, etc. aren't going to be making an impact on the 2013 or 2014 Cubs unless it's by trade. Vizcaino has a chance to fill out in a regular rotation spot by 2014, which is nice. I figure Castillo is about 50/50 to stick as a long-term catching solution, which is nice. We've got some interesting potential fast-movers in the bullpen in the minors. Other than that, the prospects (who I'm very happy to have and are the beginnings of a very nice farm system, I promise) aren't going to have much impact on the next two offseasons.

I was thinking a little further ahead, and I'm guessing we'll have to be more proactive this offseason just because of how much work the team will need going forward. Last season, we filled 1b, emptied out the BP, saw CF become a surprise hole, and everything else stayed pretty much the same, so we enter this offseason in about the same shape as we entered last offseason. But after next season, Soriano will be 38 and possibly traded, Garza and DeJesus will be gone, and we may or may not have the catching situation worked out. That's plenty to deal with for one offseason, let alone if we let all our holes from this one carry over.

We should all be so lucky.

2006 Rematch. Book it.

I'm not setting "Epstein was the best guy available" in stone.

They've never made the playoffs in a year we did. We are the only ones who can stop them.

Postseason series victories since 1980: Cardinals 17, Cubs 1

7 of the last 13 NLCSs have involved the St. Louis Cardinals.

On the bright side, in like 100 years or so everyone who witnessed this will be dead and it'll be a footnote in history.

I didn't really want to hear the Nats win and have to deal with "See, you need to lose a million games a million years in a row and build from the draft, just like they did." Mineaswell go full reality troll and have the Cardinals beat the Yankees in the World Series.

I hope they lose and have to settle for just two World Series championships in the last seven years like the chumps they are.

Fangraphs applies peripherals (I think only FIP, not xFIP) for pitchers. Baseball Reference just compares runs allowed by the pitcher to how many a hypothetical replacement pitcher would allow in that many innings.

Over/under on 2.2 fWAR? Sure, I'll take the under on that.

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade. Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive. too expensive for what? For this front office's tastes. They've already hinted they'll be bargain-hunting on pitchers, so I'm not holding out much hope.

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade. Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

Really? I thought I was overpaying. Holy crap mediocre pitching is going to be expensive.

Okay, so we throw a non-Baez collection of whatevers to the Mets for David Wright because they are dumb like that. We give him a 6/120 extension that tears up this year (for simplicity's sake, I won't try to backload or frontload any of these deals). Is 5/80 enough to get Upton? I can't get a good read on him. If not, assume that $16 million can get us something this offseason, because there are a decent number of useful outfielders, especially CFers. Laugh at anyone who complains about giving up a 2nd round pick here. I kind of want to get a veteran catcher to back up Castillo, but might as well save some money and stick with Clevenger, who should be a bit better than he showed this season. Give Marcum 3/30 and 2/12 to Villanueva. I'd like to do more with starting pitching, but after Greinke and Peavy, there's just not much there, and we've already hinted we won't be a part of that. I really wish there was more to be done with the bullpen. I'd like to see us convince Brandon League to leave L.A. even if we have to overpay (3/$18 enough?) and I'd love to be the team that gives Madson another 1/$10 deal. Something, anything to fix the @#%@# bullpen. Non-tender Stewart and Volstad. Soriano/Upton/DeJesus (Sappelt, Campana) Wright/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (Valbuena, some random waiver wire scrub, LaHair) Castillo (Clevenger) Samardzija/Garza/Marcum/Wood/Villanueva Madson/League/Marmol/Russell/(two from Zych/Cabrera/Beliveau/Dolis/whoever), random WW scrub. Total MLB payroll: About $128 million

I hadn't really looked at his season until the playoffs, but he's become a remarkably ordinary player. He's one more year of decline away from not even being a starter.

So we have a couple of hundred K left under our budget, and he'd have to come out of that? I think that settles it.

I believe they are only exempt if they are coming through the posting system.

No one said he would be cheap, but a "not cheap" package doesn't necessarily have to start with a #1 prospect. The ability of the Cubs to put together a package drops off quickly after that.

He's coming off a 7.8 fWAR season at one of the thinnest positions around the league and on the FA market. He can't be that cheap.

As a pinch-runner when rosters expand? That's about all I can see out of him.

There seems to be some legitimacy to the idea that the Mets might trade David Wright this offseason if he doesn't agree to an extension. ABTY over at PSD says the Cubs have legit interest. Do we even have a package that would net a player of his quality? Because I cannot begin to describe how much want I have for this.