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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    I wonder how many more years of .335ish wOBA would mark the transition from "zomg look at all of the HOFers on his comp list" to "Consistent 4-win SS." Two?
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    Everyone realizes that. What are the expectations though? If Harper becomes a perennial 8-9 win player and Castro becomes a perennial 5-6 win player, giving up Baez (potential 5+ win player), and one of Almora (potential 4+ win player) or Soler (potential 4+ win player) is probably going to end up hurting you more than it helps you. If you do that trade 100 times, there are probably plenty of times the side receiving Harper wins, I just don't think it would be more often than that side loses. I do think it would be pretty close though. (repeating myself a bit from the previous post) Yeah, if Harper is going to be an 8-9 win player and Castro 5-6, then the difference is completely worth two very high ceiling but still A--ball prospects. I think the Harper side wins that trade 85 times out of 100.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    So now Darwin Barney has a good chance of opening the season on the DL, which throws the previously settled roster into some craziness. Fortunately they are both short-term injuries, but two hurt infielders are really exposing the lack of depth in the infield (and fortunately it was the right two). Our options on the 40-man are Vitters and Logan Watkins, with Lake hurt. I guess I could also see them reneging on Takahashi's bullpen spot temporarily so as to give that 40-man spot to an infield pickup.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Is everyone saying no aware that Bryce Harper is going to be way, way better at baseball than Starlin Castro?
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'd drive all three to the airport. Harper put up 4.5 fWAR in his first year in the big leagues at age 19 in 597 PA. Castro put up 5.2 fWAR in his first two years in the big leagues at ages 20 and 21 in 1,221 PAs. You could round them off to the same win total, while Harper had half the playing time and at a full year younger. All of the want.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    I hate our infield bench. If he has to go to the DL, what happens? Watkins? If so, I hope he'd get the strong side of a platoon anyway..... That seems optimistic to me, but who knows how the front office sees him. after spring training. I'm guessing we'll find some waiver wire retread to sit on the bench.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    I hate our infield bench. But surprise Opening Day start is the perfect stage for a guy like Lillibridge to go like 3-for-4 with a GWRBI that keeps him in the general fandom's good graces for months.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    What I always remember is MLB's broadcast not having any footage of him or a prepared graphic. That, and the draft thread rage was pretty funny.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    Irrational called shot: Cubs vs. Cardinals WC playoff game.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Trades mostly happen when one team has an excess of that matches another team's lack and vice-versa. Nobody is going to have an excess of things that are worth as much or more than Starlin Castro, and we're not going to have an excess of him (someone is moving to 2b or 3b if Baez pans out). It's really that simple.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    What could someone realistically offer us in a trade that we'd need more than a prime years, cost-controlled shortstop?
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    It shows how bad the pitching side of things was that we can make some decent progress (trade for Vizcaino, draft a ton of them) and still be so awful.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    Has anyone ever done a study on how pitch counts in college correlate with injuries? Because the 7-day schedule seems like it would let them go longer, but who knows.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    It looks like the Maples thing was a minor leg or foot injury. There's been a few reports of him throwing normally since.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    I find that so weird. Sure, I love being right. Sure, I love posting about the Cubs more than is probably healthy. And as far as post ratios go, I wish there were 15 people posting just as often as me every day. I've never quite understood why lack of activity is considered desirable for a message board. But liking the attention? It's annoying as hell. Of course I don't like it.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Assuming he goes in the top 2, yes. Every spot that you drop is a significant hit. Last year, the slots went: $7.2m, $6.2m, $5.2m, $4.2m, $3.5m, $3.25m, $3.0m, $2.9 So basically, Appel was saying "top 2 money or I go back."
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    Because, at the time, we all thought that the hiring meant that there was absolutely no chance the Cubs would do exactly what they did.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think it's more of a bonus success condition rather than unfair to them. If we go on a Boston-like run of contention but never win the World Series, I'm not going to throw Epstein under the bus for it.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    So since the new owners its been win totals of 75, 71, and 61. And then lets say we hit the vegas line of 72 wins in 2013 and then turn the corner go .500 in 2014. 5 years win totals 75, 71, 61, 72, 81. Assuming that scenario, what does the team need to do for the folowing five years for Ricketts and Theo to have been a success? Personally, a team tanking with a sizable resource advantage for a number of seasons is inexcusable. Personally, if they suck for two more years and then win a world series in 2017 I dont think Id call them a success. For Ricketts? He'd need to make the playoffs every year consecutively to balance out his first decade. 4/10 is a par score, 5/10 is a success. For Epstein? Four would be enough. That'd give him 4 out of 8, which is Fair or unfair or whatever, any World Series win is an automatic success.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    I can accept that newspapers are dying. But to be replaced by something called "NoozeBox" hurts a bit.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Pretty excited about this change: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/unifying-replacement-level/ I've always thought fWAR had the best formulas, but I hated using it because it's scale made it seem like really bad players were better than they were.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    It'd be a good start.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm more concerned with how incessantly off-topic it is than the fact that it isn't your business. Sure, you'd think that essential basic humanity would mean that sharing personal details doesn't justify blistering personal attacks, but I'm willing to let that slide because occasionally they are funny enough that I'd hate to see those attacks go completely away. But this could have been a thread about the Ricketts ownership. Instead, it's become another thread about me. I can only assume that's what you and others want, because some seem incredibly incapable of not turning that into the subject of many threads. So, congratulations?
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    Current BP playoff odds report, which uses PECOTA, has us at 14.6% to make the playoffs and 5.8% to win the division.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm willing to accept that as a possibility, but I'm not exactly counting on that money ever showing up in our payroll in the future. Ricketts says a lot of things that don't turn out to happen. As recently as September, 2011:
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