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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    can't they pretty much do this cap dance indefinitely? there's always somewhere to go. With a raising cap, its impact is definitely lessened to a degree. They are still in a pretty overall healthy cap situation and one or two of those isn't going to be a killer. Some of its just a guarantee/non-guarantee dance, and some of the space you created now could be for non-guarantees in future years which won't ever hit that cap unless the player is still productive and worth that cap. Also, with cap rollovers its also sometimes a "six of one, half a dozen of the other" scenario. Of course, if you're just really just 100% done with this team, any of that is bad. You want to do the exact opposite and no amount of backloading is reasonable. Most of this is true, but you can’t convert guaranteed money into non-guaranteed. The total cap hit remains constant (or goes up if you add guarantees), it just moves around in time.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    can't they pretty much do this cap dance indefinitely? there's always somewhere to go. No. Every dollar paid to a player hits the cap eventually. It isn’t an infinite well.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    They restructured Fuller’s contract to create $6m in cap space this offseason while raising his cap hit in 2021 and beyond. Borrowing from the future to pay for 2020 is the worst thing they could be doing
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Me from august gets a sneak peak at this thread and thinks “oh good, the Bears aren’t listed”
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    He can hide behind Trubisky. I don't care if they fire him, but if they don't want to, then saying he gets another QB's worth of chance isn't unreasonable.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    Zimmerman also says "if he's able to play" is an extreme long shot. Smith would come with a $16m cap hit for us for 2020. Assuming the standard cuts that most people are assuming (Long, Floyd, Prince, Gabriel, Shaheen), then you've got $31.6m to cover everything else, which includes four defensive starters (S, CB, OLB, ILB), a TE, trying to fix the OL debacle, a bunch of defensive depth and signing your draft picks (some of whom will fill some of those holes, to be fair). Which, I mean, QB is important and Mitch is awful, so if that's the way you wanna go, sure. But understand how much strain the rest of the roster is under and you just took 1/3rd of the available cap space. You're not just running back the 2018 Bears with a better QB.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    Probably because of one of the following: 1) depending on the returns, the Cubs could either still be favored or at least have a realistic shot in the division 2) you're hoping for a solid first half from the closer to up his value from where it is right now 3) somebody still has to pitch and the "relief" pitcher would be one of the five best options remaining #3 makes no sense. If we're down to "somebody has to pitch" that means we're not trying to win and we're supposed to be as bad as possible. Nobody ever meant that, it was just a rationalization when they were really bad.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    He's posting on-topic. If it bothers you, foe him.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't think top candidates are gonna be lining up for a shot at this job, either. There might be worse places to be a new OC in the NFL right now, but there can't be many.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    This is my nightmare offseason. You use more or less all your cap space locking yourself in for years to a painfully average QB, and you still need at least two starters on D (plus a ton of depth), your OL is in shambles and your TE position is a black hole. That's a "dear god, let me get some bounces this year so we can maybe go 10-6 with a divisional round exit and that's probably enough to save my job" offseason. Beyond the light bulb suddenly going on for Mitch in season 3 of Nagy' offense what's the solution? Cry while you wait for 2020 to end. It's a garbage-time season, a lost cause that you have to play out. Your choices are "fix QB and let the rest of the roster suck" or "fix the rest of the roster and run it back with Trubisky." You aren't winning a Super Bowl with either choice, so either is fine with me as long as they stick to short-term deals and don't lock themselves into a QB long-term.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    This is my nightmare offseason. You use more or less all your cap space locking yourself in for years to a painfully average QB, and you still need at least two starters on D (plus a ton of depth), your OL is in shambles and your TE position is a black hole. That's a "dear god, let me get some bounces this year so we can maybe go 10-6 with a divisional round exit and that's probably enough to save my job" offseason.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    de Haan and Seabrook declared out for the season. Seabrook is gonna have surgery on both hips sometime in 2020. LTIRetiring him might be a realistic option now.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    You’re not getting 20 years of service time worth of near-ready, top-40 prospects for two years of Kris Bryant.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    They should trade Kane.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    OK now I want to cut Trubisky immediately just so we can stop discussing why he's bad.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Trubisky is fairly accurate at short and medium range. He is pretty inaccurate at long range. He doesn't throw deep often enough. Hence his overall accurate throws percentage isn't bad.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's kind of a stupid trap because I don't particularly like any of the bad trinity of Pace/Trubisky/Nagy, but there's no good way to fire them one at a time and I don't want to be that franchise that fires all of them at once in the middle of the cycle. I guess I just wanna wait until next offseason when it's a good chance to fire all three.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Mitch 100% made that read pre-snap. He's not comfortable making post-snap reads so he tries to compensate with pre-snap.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    Even if an average QB got you to the playoffs with this roster, you're just gonna get dumpstered the first time you play a good team. This isn't baseball where the playoffs are a coin-flip. Where to go from here is get a soft start on the 2021 rebuild. Cut underproducing veterans, avoid long-term commitments in the free agent market, try to draft at positions with a longer-term impact like OL. Get a low-commitment QB to compete with Trubisky, whichever of them is playing better wins. If you happen to get a dead-cat bounce season out of the Mack/Hicks/youth/cheapFAs defense or the offense figures something out, congrats. But in 2021, you try again to draft a QB and start building around him.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    All plans for 2020 have a low probability of success. You're either hoping on an unlikely turnaround from Trubisky and/or the rest of the roster being improved, or you're hoping on a mediocre retread QB from elsewhere and the rest of the roster stagnating. I'm not optimistic about Trubisky, but you're pretty much priced into him for one more year at this point unless you're dying to see what this exact roster, give or take a tight end and a year older, can do with Andy Dalton or Marcus Mariota. After 2020, the answer to "Is Trubisky secretly average or is he actually awful?" is "I don't care." He's definitely not good, and if you don't have someone good at that position, keep trying until you get one.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    Remember when they just needed to win out from 6-6 and it was totally plausible?
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    Bryant's case should be a slam-dunk win.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Remember when there was no way we wouldn’t be in on the top free agents because Theo wouldn’t have paid Cole Hamels’ option if that was most of the budget? The simplest explanation that fits all the data points is that Epstein has poor impulse control when he thinks he is in the “win now” mode of the success cycle and makes poor decisions that will hurt the team even a little ways down the road. This hypothesis dovetails with his entire career, even his Boston days.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    The presence of those guys plus Arenado on the market makes it impossible to get good leverage for a Bryant deal
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think he significantly overestimated the market for some of his assets. He assumed teams would be showering him with high-profile prospects in offers for Bryant and has been resoundingly met with "meh." There's just no way that he built the team with Plan A being trade Bryant for prospects(and Bryant is the only salary big enough to fix payroll ills). He committed 8 figures in 2020-21 to a reliever in June, combined with the rapidly approaching FA of the positional player core there's no way trading your best player to get under the tax was his first choice, because you know you're taking a step back when you do it even if they're showering him with prospect riches. Why is there no way?
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