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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    I disagree. With just 66 games left in the schedule, every half-game is pretty significant.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    Also, I still think baseball fielders from the pre-glove era would have been better. A cricket lineup is essentially five first-basemen, a catcher, and five pitchers. Nobody is selected for their defense, and any they provide is pure bonus.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    The possibility that Rich Harden was more unlucky and less broken at the beginning of the season is looking very promising.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    There's a reason pitchers with no hitting ability whatsoever still hit like .050. The strike zone's not that big. If you cheat like crazy, you can time any fastball. And if you time it, there's a chance it'll just happen to hit the bat. And if it does that, you've got a chance it'll go somewhere where you can get a hit. Line up 100 random nsbbers, and I bet at least one of us would get a hit.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    Baseball + Only two bases + One run per base + Don't have to run when you hit it + Out on one strike (the wicket is the strike zone) + No foul territory + Six runs for a home run, four for a ground-rule double That's 90% of it right there.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    If this ever gets off the ground, it'll appeal to ex-pats and no more.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    http://i358.photobucket.com/albums/oo21/namag82/wesuchagain.jpg
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    He has not outhit Lugo this year. Julio Lugo .284 .352 .367 Brendan Ryan this year .275 .313 .367 They are pretty close offensively that Ryans D makes up for the little bit of advantage Lugo has so far offensively this year. 40 points of OBP is not a "little bit of offense."
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    2 1st rounders I believe Then this is a pretty good trade.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    He has not outhit Lugo this year. Julio Lugo .284 .352 .367 Brendan Ryan this year .275 .313 .367
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Can the Cubs catch the Cardinals? Yes. Will they? I'd say the odds are slightly against. If you presume that the Cubs' hitters will likely have second halves in line with their recent full seasons, then you'd have to predict that the Cubs would pass them.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    I keep losing track of this rule. Do the Cardinals get compensation picks if they offer him arbitration and he leaves?
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    A Cardinals friend buddy of mine was discussing this yesterday with me, and I told him I thought it was pretty much 50/50 whether Wallace for Holliday would be a good idea for the Cardinals. I like Wallace a lot as a prospect, even with no real defensive position. But they just can't afford to waste Albert Pujols' prime seasons. I've seen some ripping on Lugo in this thread, but he's an upgrade. The Cardinals have gotten this far with some awful black holes this season, and filling them at all gives them a big boost: LF .212 .294 .342 SS .249 .308 .354 3b .220 .291 .358
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Sixth man to throw a no-hitter and a perfect game separately.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    There are a lot of ugly holes on that team. It's hard for a major-league team to get as little production out of LF and 3b as they have.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Fan just gave the most obvious "reach-over" home run ever, correctly called a double.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    Just to rub a little salt on it, while all that was happening, Mark DeRosa got his first hit as a Cardinal.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    The end of 2004 was all the frustration of 2005 and 2006 distilled into a couple of weeks.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    He didn't get tagged, the tag missed. He was ruled out of the basepath.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    First HR for that guy in exactly one month.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    So, at some point, you are going to produce a different pre-season projection from Guzman that proves how ridiculous mine is? I've already shown a popular one that agreed with me. You missed my point entirely. The point is projections such as ZiPS don't accurately judge players like Guzman because they're all about plugging in the #s and comparing them across the board. Dan isn't putting in tweaks that so and so was injured while putting up these ghastly #s. Add in that there is such little recent data to work with for Gooz, and you wind up with a 5.00 ERA projection (as a starter) because a guy had been hurt. And my point is that the historical results for 27-year-olds with good arms but constant injuries is more than a little ghastly.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    So, at some point, you are going to produce a different pre-season projection from Guzman that proves how ridiculous mine is? I've already shown a popular one that agreed with me. Isn't Guzman like every other prospect that came up and struggled at first, then got better? Carlos Quentin comes to mind. He was always very highly thought of coming up, some like him better than Z. The issue was always staying healthy. He's also like the hundreds of pitching prospects who had good arms but could never get healthy and ended up with nothing more than a cup of coffee.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    So, at some point, you are going to produce a different pre-season projection from Guzman that proves how ridiculous mine is? I've already shown a popular one that agreed with me.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yes, I expect the Cardinals to regress as currently constituted. As I mentioned earlier, I'd take the Cubs over the Cardinals if I could be promised that both rosters stayed the same the rest of the season. The problems are: 1) The Cubs and Cardinals aren't the only two teams in the division. I'd take the Cubs over any one team in the field, but I'd take the field as a whole over the Cubs. 2) The Cardinals seem much more intent than the Cubs on improving at the deadline, which would balance out the projection. 3) Two games in hand is nothing to sneeze at.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Injuries are always a significant drag on projections. 27 or not, if you have been hurt repeatedly, you will probably be hurt again, and it will eventually have an effect on your performance when you are healthy. ZIPS, for example, projected Guzman to 23 innings pitched and a 5.09 ERA. If anyone has any preseason projections on Guzman that showed something significantly better, I'd love to see them. Plus, I wouldn't call 27 a breakout age. It's a prime year in the sense that a player will usually be at their peak, but the ones who will have success in the big leagues have usually broken through at some point before that. With regards to the Cardinals, yes Carpenter is ahead of projection by quite a bit as well. I'm not denying that they've outperformed projections.
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