vance_the_cubs_fan

The convergence of deity during these games is amazing.

Sweeney is also quoted as saying that he spoke with Grimsley and was told that he didn't mention any names. That sounds to me like Grimsley told the Feds everything out of fear but now he's trying to keep face with friends and former teammates. In which case, Sweeney has no real idea of what is or isn't true. Link Well, if Grimsley told Sweeney that, then there's two possibilities. 1. Grimsley is lying to Sweeney. 2. A federal agent lied in an affadvit signed and submitted to a Federal judge. I think I'll go with door number one. And if Grimsley lied to Sweeney, it's just as easy that his people lied to Mihfiled when they asked if he were named in the affadavit.

That sure is a lot to give up for someone who has not done anything in the majors and really hasn't been overwhelmingly impressive in the minors yet, isn't it? He's put up good numbers, but a package of Maddux, Williamson, and Hill better bring more than just Joel Guzman. jmo but maddux & williamson aren't that valuable. maddux may retire after this season, and his era is near 5. williamson is injury prone. Hill isn't near the prospect that Guzman is. They may not be as valuable as they once were, but when a team is looking for a starter to get them through the race for a play-off spot, their value could rise significantly, especially if there are few other options. Take a look at Arizona's rotation right now. Do you think they'd be confident in going down the stretch with that group? Look at the Padres. Other teams as well could use a solid starter. Often teams will make unwise decisions with their prospects when the season is on the line and there are few options available. Based on my guesses, there could only be 9 teams selling. If you assume the sellers are only likely to sell off impending FA, then there isn't much left to be bought off of Seattle, Florida, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, KC, Tampa, and Washington. If I were a team wanting a starter, and Dontrelle isn't on the table, I think Maddux would be the second or third target after maybe Livian Hernandez. It's the lack of options that will drive up the value. I think if Maddux is shopped, he could bring back one B+ prospect or a package of a B- and a C prospect, especially if he is being shopped around the NL West as all of those teams could use at least one more starter.

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier. hmmm guzman. they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done. I wouldn't do Howry for Guzman even if Maddux wasn't included. To me, Howry and Eyre are extremely valuable as they are signed beyon this season. Other than Maddux, what pitchers are likely to be available? Livian Hernandez...maybe. If my assessment of the buyers and sellers is correct, the remaining teams don't really have vets approaching FA that would interest a lot of teams. For that reason, the Cubs have a chance to get a nice player from a team that needs another arm. While there should be some interest in Howry and Eyre, I'd hold them up for a very top prospect. They have proven they can get valuable outs late in the game. They are under team-control for 2007-2008 and the Cubs are under no financial constraints. If the Dodgers want Maddux AND Howry, the cost should be nothing less than Billingsly unless they want to give up Guzman and Blake DeWitt. true, maddux may be the best available. no one likes to deal pitching. i'd hate to see howry or eyre go and agree w/ your assessment, but the dodgers have been pretty reluctant to deal off prospects. perhaps things have changed some w/ coletti in charge now. If they don't want to make a deal, deal with someone else. Since there's no pressure or need to deal Howry or Eyre, don't deal them unless you get the guy you really want. If the Dodgers aren't willing to part with a good prospect for Maddux and/or Williamson, call up the Diamondbacks, Giants, or Padres and deal him there. Let Coletti know if he doesn't pony up to the table the other teams in the division certainly might.

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier. hmmm guzman. they're set w/ furcal @ SS and LaRoche is ranked ahead of guzman by Baseball America. He may be expendable. perhaps howry & maddux could get that done. I wouldn't do Howry for Guzman even if Maddux wasn't included. To me, Howry and Eyre are extremely valuable as they are signed beyon this season. Other than Maddux, what pitchers are likely to be available? Livian Hernandez...maybe. If my assessment of the buyers and sellers is correct, the remaining teams don't really have vets approaching FA that would interest a lot of teams. For that reason, the Cubs have a chance to get a nice player from a team that needs another arm. While there should be some interest in Howry and Eyre, I'd hold them up for a very top prospect. They have proven they can get valuable outs late in the game. They are under team-control for 2007-2008 and the Cubs are under no financial constraints. If the Dodgers want Maddux AND Howry, the cost should be nothing less than Billingsly unless they want to give up Guzman and Blake DeWitt.

Lazy baserunning gets him picked off. He's ready to play for the Cubs now.

I'm not sure. A lot will depend on the perceived value at the time of the deadline. I know we couldn't get Billingsly, but I wouldn't mind Joel Guzman or Andre Ethier.

If things go like they usually do, he'll get hurt.

I think the Cubs interest in Sori and other players as well is going to depend greatly on what they do with the pitching. If they let Maddux and Wood go, they will have to fill two holes in the rotation. I can see Hendry letting one of Hill/Guzman/Ryu have a shot, but not two. So, the rotation would be Zambrano/Prior/Marshall and whoever the Cubs can sign. I think pitching might be the focus over a hitter, even if that may not be the direction I'd take.

Kinsler is doing ok in Texas, so I don't see them being in the market for Walker. They also have a number of guys to fill in periodically at second (Jimenez, Hairston, DeRosa) and Derosa has been hitting too, so I can't see them making a move at second, and if they did, they won't part with Ian. Wood and Walker couldn't get Kinsler alone much less Kinsler and Diamond or Danks. I wouldn't mind picking up Volquez or Hurley, but I really don't see Daniels dealing either. The Rangers cou;d have interest in Wood, but likely offer us someone like Laynce Nix in exchange. I'd be tempted to trade Wood for John Mayberry Jr. He's not a great prospect, but he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man for awhile either. I'd take a look at Teagarden as well.

Vance, Very nice analysis. The Angels are an interesting team. I think they are underachieving, and will make some moves. If Williamson comes back healthy and Nevin can get on a bit of a hot streak, I could see the Cubs moving both to Los angeles to help them in the bullpen and get some production out of 1B/DH - both have been weak areas. Stoneman has inquired about Williamson and Nevin in the past. My gut tells me that Maddux is staying (and will be given a one-year extension). Hoops Nice to see you back around, Hoops. From your perspective, do you think Hendry has the balls to pull off an appropriate fire sale?

Agreed.

I don't know the name, but a reliever has to be included in the group. Williamson has to be considered a likely trading chip. While Eyre or Howry could bring back something solid if a bidding war ensues. I didn't include Eyre or Howry because they're both under contract for next year. If a team was willing to overpay for them, trade them, but given that the Cubs will have money to burn, I prefer to trade only those guys who don't fit into next season's plans. On the other hand, if Howry and Maddux could net Saltamalaccia from the Braves, I may be willing to think about it.

Exactly. The owners might drag feet on approval or heavily scrutinize the finances, but Cuban would get approved. I suspect Cuban would get tagged as a potential Steinbrenner of the NL, and given the oft-argued economic disparity in the league that alone would be sufficient reason to blackball Cuban. The Cubs could only afford four no-votes; the NL Central alone would be able to block the purchase. Pitt, Cincy and Milw are small-market teams - they would be heavily incented to block. The owners love it when a team sells at a premium because it only drives up the price of their own team. I remember when the Rangers were sold to Tom Hicks. Everyone knew he was coming in and going to spend money, but the owners loved the fact he was paying nearly 500 million for a team that 6 years earlier had sold for less than half that. They like the rapid appreciation of value and so overlooked what Hicks might do to the other aspects of the game. Furthermore, if owners blocked the sale of teams simply on the grounds that an owner might spend money, the anti-trust exemption could come under some heavy scrutiny.

With the season heading into the middle of June, teams are going to try to poise themselves for a run. How do the Cubs fit into this crazy market? While many have poo-pooed on the value that the Cubs could get in a trade for impending FA's, it's appearing that this season could very much be a seller's market. Granted, a lot can happen in the next six-seven weeks of baseball before the big trades start happening. Some teams who look to be buyers may move to the bubble or fall-out completely. Some teams that appear to be sellers could be buyoed by a hot streak and become sellers. But, as it breaks down, this is how I see it. First I have determined 16 teams that are likely buyers. To be in this group you had to meet both of the these qualifications. 1. Be within five games of a playoff spot. 2. Be no more than 2 games under .500 currently. The buyers: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, A's, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies. (Interesting that the entire NL West made the list) After looking over the left-overs, I found five teams that are close enough that they could be buyers. These are teams within striking distance that believe they should be better. They are: Astros, Brewers, Braves, Angels, and Indians. That leaves nine sellers: Mariners, Twins, Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Fish, Pirates, Orioles, and, of course, the Cubs. With 2/3 of the teams looking to acquire talent, the Cubs would be wise to begin dealing early. Waiting too late could be costly. 1.Todd Walker could be an ideal fit in Oakland as they try to recover from the loss of Ellis. Oakland hasn't been getting the offense they need, and Walker could be a boost. He's also the type of player that could attract Billy Beane's interest. The Mets, Cardinals, and Rockies might also have interest in Walker to boost their secondbase production. (Other 2b available: Castillo, Lugo Soriano(?)) 2. Greg Maddux would look nice on a number of teams trying to add a veteran presence. With Maroth injured, he could help out the Tigers in a deal. San Diego is another team that could benefit from Maddux. However, Arizona has the best prospects and probably a need for him as well. If I were the Cubs, I'd shop him to the Diamondbacks but use the Padres, Rangers, Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Tigers as leverege to get more for him. (Other SP's likely to be available: Moyer, Radke, Livan Hernandez) 3. Juan Pierre could get a look from teams feeling they need a spark at the top of the order. He has been horrible this season, but a contender may think he's primed to turn it around. If the Cardinals have to use Edmonds at first for an extended period, they might look at Pierre. With Eckstein in place at lead-off, they could use Pierre in the 8th spot to see if he could turn things around. The Astros also have been struggling to find the right match in CF as Tevaras has been benched recently. The Angels also could have some interest as well. Other than the players above, I could see the Diamondbacks and Braves having interest in Williamson if he comes back healthy. If Wood lets himself be shopped, the Yankees and maybe the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks could be itnerested. If he is willing to pitch in late relief, that list could grow exponentially. Of the players on the sellers, there's not much there that's likely available unless the Marlins decide to move Willis. Soriano is likely the top bill followed by Julio Lugo.

Exactly. The owners might drag feet on approval or heavily scrutinize the finances, but Cuban would get approved.

Homeruns are up all across baseball. Why? You could argue that the hitters are cheating, but there is an equally viable argument that states it's due to lack of pitchers cheating. Afterall, the majority of positive tests for banned substances thus far has occurred in pitchers, not hitters. I've always felt steroids could help a reliever better than anyone else in baseball. HGH and steroids increase recovery time and no one needs that more than relief pitchers. While those substances can surely help hitters in bulking up and there's definitely some value there, imagine a pitcher who could dial it up to the 90's, but was unable to hit 85 the next day discovers that by juicing he can hit in the 90's on consecutive days. His value skyrockets under those circumstances.

How many times must this be proven false until people stop saying it? Well, it's technically false. But it's also been written by nearly all the writers, including Bruce, that there's a handshake agreement that Maddux won't be dealt w/o his approval. So it's effectively a NTC, though not technically one. Sure, JH could go back on his word. Although I think he's done a pretty bad job as GM (at least recently), I don't think he'd throw away his reputation with all players by dealing Maddux against his wishes. If we replaced Hendry, would that nulify the handshake agreement?

If the Cubs are sellers, and they should be, a strong inventory should be taken. As was stated in the original post, the Cubs do not have to move contracts. Unless I'm impressed with an offer, I wouldn't trade any player that would be under team control for next season unless it's a player I would like to be rid of such as Rusch. That means someone would have to overpay for arms like Howry or Eyre. Secondly, every player not under team control would be available. If it's a player that I would like to have beyond 2006, I'd try to get the extension locked up now. If the player was not interested in signing an extension, I'd tell them they would likely be traded and that we'd negotiate with them next offseason as we pursued them as a FA. That means, take what you can get for: 1. Maddux 2. Wood 3. Walker 4. Pierre 5. Nevin 6. Perez 7. Mabry 8. Blanco 9. Williamson 10. Miller 11. Womack Will all of those be traded? Certainly not, but I'd try to gather as many prospects as I could in return. During the offseason, those prospects might be useful in deals to acquire talent from teams dropping payroll. There's very few players on that list that should figure into the Cubs long range plans. I think this would be the best possible approach.

Dallas takes game 1. Go Mavs!

I'm not ashamed at all to say I hope it's true. I've already come to grips that my second favorite player of all time juiced. It would be nice if the player I despise also juiced as well.

=D> Keeps Davey away from the Cubs.. Boooo..... I'll take DJ over any other available candidate, or soon to be available candidate in the sport. I'm amazed they got him to come back...I thought he had sworn never to return to MLB or something like that. He's been gone a LOOOOOONG time. I'm especially amazed the idiot Bowden of all people was able to bring him aboard. I wonder what his compensation package looks like... Thank you, thank you. (waves hand around) DJ sucks less the Baker, but he still sucks. I'd prefer a manager with a clue. Dierker, Valentine, or Curious George IN THAT ORDER. I don't see how anyone with a clue can say Davey Johnson sucks. The evidence just doesn't support such a claim. I'll bring the evidence. Johnson has a 564 career winning percentage. Seasons over .500: Johnson 12 (86%) Seasons over .600 Johnson 3 (21%) - very impressive. Seasons with 100+ win teams Johnson 2 (14%) World Series wins Johnson 1 First Place Finishes Johnson 4 (29%) Johnson also finished under 3rd or lower twice (14%). Those are also the only seasons he managed an under 500 team. Johnson wins. He has the ability to relate to players and talk the game in a language they understand, but he isn't opposed to using stats and computer print-outs, yet he isn't quite viewed as a "sabermetric" guy. Johnson would be an excellent choice as manager and probably better than most choices out there. It's a shame he's no longer available.

Congrats on all the other positives of the trip, but what/where is this establishment you speak of? It's located on McGowan in Houston.

Dierker next on your wish list Vance? If we need a manager in the midst of the season, yes. If we wait until after the season, I'm still a big proponent of Fredi Gonzalez, though I suspect he could replace Bell in KC with Moore going there.

A fan asked Lee on Monday when he would be swinging the bat and Lee said, "Don't know just yet. It's still tender."