Sam Caulder

The Cubs may not want to move Matt Shaw, but their crowded outfield and pitching struggles create an interesting trade possibility involving the young slugger. View full video

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs sit 12 games above .500 coming out of the All-Star Break, and all things considered, that's pretty impressive. The pitching staff has been absolutely decimated by injuries—you could almost put together an entire pitching staff just from the names currently on the injured list. Despite that, Chicago has managed to stay firmly entrenched in the playoff picture. A lot of that has been thanks to an offense that's been one of the best in baseball, along with several pitchers stepping up when the team has needed them most. And yet, there are still a few key players who haven't quite looked like themselves this season. If the Cubs are going to make a legitimate run in October, they're going to need those players to turn things around over the second half. So with that, here are three Cubs that I believe are in line for big second halves. Nico Hoerner The first name on the list is Nico Hoerner. Hoerner got off to an extremely strong start to the season. Over the first month, he was hitting .307 with an .855 OPS and a 137 wRC+, looking every bit like one of the most complete middle infielders in baseball. Unfortunately for the Cubs, that success didn't last. Fast-forward to the All-Star break, and Hoerner is hitting just .233 with a .631 OPS and a 79 wRC+, making him comfortably below league average offensively. Even with those struggles, though, there are plenty of reasons to believe a turnaround is coming. For starters, the underlying metrics paint a much more optimistic picture than the traditional numbers do. Hoerner owns a .284 expected batting average, which is dramatically higher than his actual mark, and his expected slugging percentage also sits comfortably above his current production. That suggests he's been one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball this season, and beyond the expected numbers, he's still Nico Hoerner. His bat-to-ball skills remain among the very best in the sport. He ranks in the 98th percentile in whiff rate and the 100th percentile in strikeout rate, meaning almost nobody puts the bat on the ball more consistently than he does. Pair that with his exceptional defense at second base, and it's easy to see why the Cubs handed him a lucrative extension earlier this year. The underlying data would indicate that Hoerner has simply gotten extremely unlucky at the plate, and eventually, that kind of bad fortune tends to even itself out. I fully expect a big second half from the Cubs' second baseman. Matthew Boyd The next player who needs to step up is Matthew Boyd. And to be fair, Boyd deserves a little bit of leeway. Despite carrying a 4.50 ERA into the second half, his season took a bizarre turn back in early May when he tore his meniscus after sitting down to play with his kids. He was just trying to be a good dad—such a cruel world. Even outside of the injury, though, 2026 has been a frustrating season for Boyd. The encouraging part is that his actual stuff still looks really good. His whiff rate and chase rate both rank in at least the 78th percentile among major-league pitchers, showing that hitters are still having plenty of trouble squaring him up when they swing. He's also continued doing what he's always done well, which is throwing strikes and attacking the zone. The biggest issue has simply been the quality of contact when hitters do connect. His hard-hit rate ranks all the way down in the fourth percentile, while his barrel rate and average exit velocity aren't much better. That's obviously not ideal. At the same time, Boyd's 3.58 FIP suggests he's been considerably better than his ERA would indicate and that he has suffered from some poor luck on balls in play. He's also looked much sharper since returning from the injured list. Across four starts after coming back, Boyd has allowed just seven earned runs over 22 innings, giving the Cubs exactly the kind of stability they've desperately needed in an injury-riddled rotation. Health permitting, Matthew Boyd feels like someone who's in line for a nice second half. And with how banged up the Cubs' starting rotation has been all year, they'll absolutely need it. Alex Bregman The third and final player I'll mention is, of course, Alex Bregman. After signing a massive five-year, $175 million contract this offseason, it hasn't exactly been the start in Chicago that Bregman envisioned. He's hitting just .241 with a sub-.700 OPS, and unlike Hoerner, the underlying metrics don't really suggest he's been the victim of bad luck. Both his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are actually three points lower than his current numbers, while several of his quality-of-contact metrics rank among the worst of his career. So, this prediction is definitely more speculation than it is data-driven. But sometimes history matters. Throughout his career, Bregman has consistently been a much better hitter during the second half of the season. His career second-half slash line sits at .284/.372/.508, which is comfortably better than his .260/.356/.446 line before the All-Star Break. For whatever reason, Bregman always seems to hit the ball harder, reach base more often, and perform at a higher level once the calendar creeps closer to October. Maybe 2026 ends up being the exception. Maybe this is simply the beginning of a long-term decline. But I'm not quite ready to believe that yet. Instead, I'm betting on another classic Bregman second-half surge over the final two-and-a-half months of the regular season. If that happens, it'll give the Cubs another dangerous bat in an already-loaded lineup and make them an even tougher team to deal with once October arrives. View full article

With the Cubs' bullpen battered by injuries, adding relief help should be a top priority. Alex Lange, Victor Vodnik, and Keaton Winn are three intriguing trade targets who could help stabilize the late innings. View full video

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images One of the most intriguing things about this year’s trade deadline is the wide variety of shapes potential deals could take. Not every move is going to be a straightforward contender adding a rental player for a playoff push. Some teams could look to make bigger-picture moves, trading talented young players who don’t necessarily fit their long-term plans in exchange for help at a more pressing position. Chicago Cubs utility man Matt Shaw is the quintessential example of that type of player. On the surface, trading Shaw seems like a ridiculous idea. He won’t even be arbitration-eligible until 2029 and could still be viewed as a key part of the Cubs’ future. However, the North Siders also have crowded infield and outfield situations and a desperate need to improve their pitching staff without weakening an already-thin farm system. Because of that, Shaw could become available in the right deal. The keyword there, though, is "right." Chicago wouldn’t be looking to move Shaw for a short-term upgrade or a rental player. If they were to make a move, it would need to bring back a controllable starting pitcher who could help anchor the rotation for years to come. For a team willing to make that type of offer, Shaw could quickly become one of the more attractive trade targets on the market. After a difficult rookie season, Shaw has taken some noticeable steps forward in 2026. He’s currently slashing .246/.322/.415, with his OPS sitting nearly 50 points higher than where it was last season. While those numbers may not jump off the page, the underlying improvements have been encouraging. Shaw’s strikeout rate has dropped, he’s making more consistent contact, and he has done a much better job of avoiding pitches outside of the strike zone. Overall, he has looked much more comfortable at the plate compared to a year ago. That improvement has been especially important considering everything else the 24-year-old has had to deal with this season. After spending most of his career in the infield, Shaw has been forced to adjust to a new position in right field. That transition, as well as two separate stints on the injured list, have made for some adversity, but the results have been much better than many expected. He currently grades out as an above-average right fielder in both range and arm value, and his athleticism has been a major reason why the transition has gone smoothly. Shaw’s 91st percentile sprint speed allows him to cover plenty of ground in the outfield, and it also makes him a legitimate threat once he reaches base. His ability to take an extra base adds another element to his overall game. Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been absolutely decimated by injuries. The Cubs currently have 12 pitchers on the injured list, enough to nearly build an entire rotation and bullpen out of unavailable arms. Adding pitching help has to be one of their biggest priorities. However, because Shaw is still under team control for several years, this wouldn’t be a move made simply to patch a short-term problem. The return would need to address a long-term weakness. That’s why a team like the Cleveland Guardians immediately stands out as a potential trade partner. Cleveland currently sits at 51-46 and remains firmly in the playoff picture, but their outfield production has been a concern. Their current right fielder, Kahlil Watson, has posted an OPS of just .562 this season. Watson is still young and has plenty of time to develop, but adding someone like Shaw would immediately give the Guardians more offensive flexibility and likely better short-term production. Additionally, Cleveland’s lineup features only one true right-handed hitter in its everyday group. Adding Shaw would give them another right-handed option and allow them to play matchups more effectively. The question, of course, is what the Cubs would want in return. A player like Tanner Bibee could be the type of arm Chicago targets. Bibee recently signed a five-year, $48 million extension with Cleveland that runs through 2030, and the structure of that deal could make him appealing to the Cubs. The contract is back-loaded, meaning Chicago would not be paying him more than $7.4 million annually until 2029. That gives them a quality starting pitcher without taking on a massive financial commitment immediately. Bibee, who is 27 years old, owns a career 3.90 ERA and profiles as a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter, exactly the type of pitcher the Cubs need. Would Cleveland actually move him? That’s a different question. The Guardians are known for their ability to develop pitchers, and losing Bibee wouldn’t completely cripple their plans. They have consistently found ways to build a strong pitching staff, which could likely make them more willing to consider a deal involving a controllable starter. If a trade like this happened, it’s possible one side (more than likely the Cubs) would need to add a prospect or cash considerations to balance things out. But the framework of a Shaw-for-Bibee deal is at least interesting. The Cubs may ultimately decide that keeping Shaw is the better move given their long list of impending free agents. And yet, in the here and now, their need for pitching help could mean trading Matt Shaw is not nearly as unrealistic as it may sound. If the Cubs can turn an outfielder they don’t necessarily need into a controllable starting pitcher they desperately do, it’s a move worth considering. View full article

Agree on all of that, you don't want Vodnik (or Winn) tasked with shutting games down. Ideally, the bullpen is close to full health come October, but that likely won't happen. Thanks for reading

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs currently own the fourth-best record in the National League, and despite sitting five games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, they're firmly entrenched in the playoff picture. To maintain that position, though, they'll need to address their pitching staff before the August 3 MLB trade deadline. The Cubs' 4.33 team ERA ranks 21st, and while injuries to the starting rotation have played a major role in that, the bullpen has also been absolutely decimated. Within the last few weeks, Chicago has lost Hoby Milner, Daniel Palencia and Ethan Roberts to the injured list. Those three join Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, Shelby Miller and Riley Martin, giving the Cubs an injury list that looks a lot like their bullpen plan coming into the season. Pitching wins games in October, and more specifically, late-game pitching can be the difference between advancing and going home. With that in mind, here are three relief pitchers the Cubs could target to reinforce their bullpen for a postseason run. Alex Lange The Royals have been arguably the most disappointing team in baseball this season, sitting at just 38-59, and Lange himself hasn't exactly put together a dominant campaign. His 5.92 ERA isn't going to grab anyone's attention, and the command issues have certainly been real. Still, I think his numbers deserve a little more context. Despite the inflated ERA, Lange owns a much more encouraging 3.97 FIP, suggesting he's pitched better than the surface-level results indicate. There have certainly been some bad breaks mixed in with the command issues. More importantly, this is someone with legitimate late-inning experience. Lange recorded 26 saves with the Detroit Tigers back in 2023, his last fully healthy season, and he's already picked up eight saves with Kansas City this year. That kind of experience has value, especially for a team that could be playing plenty of close games down the stretch. There's also a lot to like from a stuff standpoint. His slider, sinker and changeup all come with strong movement profiles, giving him multiple weapons capable of missing barrels when he's around the strike zone. The 12% walk rate is definitely something to keep an eye on. That's probably what keeps him from immediately stepping into the ninth inning if he were traded. Instead, he'd likely fit best in a sixth- or seventh-inning role while giving manager Craig Counsell another experienced high-leverage option to lean on. Add in the fact that Lange still has two more years of team control after this season, and he becomes an intriguing buy-low candidate. It wouldn't be the flashiest acquisition at the deadline, but Lange is someone who makes a lot of sense for the Cubs. A former top draft pick by the Cubs, he'd be coming full-circle, professionally. Victor Vodnik In a lot of ways, Vodnik profiles similarly to Lange. The surface-level numbers don't immediately stand out, and like Lange, he's walked more hitters than you'd like. But there's also a lot happening beneath the surface that's very encouraging for the Rockies’ right-hander. For starters, Vodnik has done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. Both his hard-hit rate and barrel rate rank in at least the 62nd percentile among all major-league pitchers, and he's generating ground balls on more than half of the balls put in play against him. That's a very strong combination for any reliever. If hitters aren't squaring you up consistently and they're pounding the ball into the ground, you're usually setting yourself up for long-term success. He's also been throwing much better recently. Over his last seven appearances, Vodnik has surrendered just one run while showing much better command than he did earlier in the season. For someone who routinely touches 99 MPH with his fastball, there's plenty of upside still waiting to be unlocked. And, of course, it's fair to wonder what his numbers might look like if he wasn't pitching half of his games at Coors Field. A move away from baseball's most hitter-friendly environment could make an immediate impact on his production. Like Lange, Vodnik also comes with multiple years of team control, making him more than just a rental for 2026. Victor Vodnik is another reliever who could quietly make a real difference in Chicago's bullpen down the stretch. Keaton Winn Of the three pitchers mentioned here, Winn would require the biggest return in a trade. He's been the best performer of the group this season. Across 32 innings with the Giants, Winn owns an impressive 3.09 ERA, while posting 26 strikeouts against 10 walks. Unlike Lange and Vodnik, command isn't much of a concern here. He's also under team control for quite a while, with another year of pre-arbitration eligibility remaining before he even reaches arbitration. That kind of long-term control significantly boosts his value. Beyond the results, the underlying metrics are outstanding. Winn has been one of baseball's best pitchers at generating soft contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both rank in the 95th percentile or better among all major-league pitchers, while his barrel rate sits in the 88th percentile. That's exactly the type of profile contenders love adding to the back end of a bullpen. He throws strikes, he throws hard, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Those are three traits that generally translate well in high-leverage situations—especially in October, when every baserunner matters. Winn would give the Cubs another legitimate late-inning weapon capable of helping them make a deep postseason run. Whether the Cubs decide to target a proven veteran like Alex Lange, take a chance on the upside of Victor Vodnik, or pay a little more for someone like Keaton Winn, it's hard to imagine them making a serious run in October without adding bullpen help. Chicago has positioned themselves to be a legitimate playoff team in 2026, but if the front office wants to maximize this opportunity, reinforcing the bullpen has to be one of the organization's top priorities over the next few weeks. Those are three relief pitchers I think the Cubs could look to acquire before the trade deadline. Let me know down in the comments which relievers you'd like to see the Cubs go after! View full article