Paul Niemiec

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Porter Hodge is currently on the injured list with a shoulder issue, about two weeks after returning from the IL. He had been there since mid-May due to a left hip impingement. His “finale” of sorts, before going back to the IL, was an outing where the Twins tagged him for six earned runs while recording only one out. The purpose of this piece is not to dissect his last outing, but I will give a brief synopsis of how it went: walk, homer, homer, double, wild pitch, single, homer, strikeout, goodbye. He faced seven batters, and six of them reached base. Hodge now has a 6.85 ERA over 36 appearances in 2025. This is not the season that many anticipated after he posted a terrific rookie season with a 1.88 ERA, striking out 52 over 43 innings pitched. He appeared to have the inside track on the closer gig, but even as they missed out on guys like Jeff Hoffman and Tanner Scott, they still brought in Ryan Pressly to alleviate the burden on their budding young star. This turned out to be the right move as evident by Hodge’s negative WAR and limited availability this season. Still only 24 years old, there’s time for Hodge to get back on track, but this is the type of player that may have a shorter leash than others with a better prospect pedigree. The 2019 13th-round pick appeared on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects twice (MLB.com): No. 21 in 2023 No. 29 in 2024. Hodge was mainly used as a starter early in his minor league career, but after 50 minor league starts, he was converted to a full-time reliever during the 2023 season. Armed with a high-90s cut fastball and a wipeout sweeper, but below average grades for command, he seemed destined for the bullpen regardless. Hodge made his debut in May of 2024 and cemented himself there for the rest of the season. His six saves in September last season further supported the argument that he should be getting serious closer consideration. So, what happened to him this season? He has not looked right in his brief return from the IL, but he came into the season healthy and was still ineffective. In his 19 1/3 innings spanning from Opening Day to his injury on May 17, he posted a 5.12 ERA while allowing 18 hits. His 18 earned runs on the year has already doubled the nine he allowed all of 2024. If that's all there was to the story, Hodge would look finished. Luckily, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that the 24-year-old can still bring it. It is worth noting that many of his batted ball metrics are in line with what they were last year, which is a good sign. His ground ball percentage, line drive percentage, fly ball percentage, and exit velocity are within one percentage point of last season. His hard hit rate has actually dropped from 35.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity is in line with last season while his average slider velocity has risen from 83 to 84 mph. What actually inspires the most confidence in Hodge is his game log. On July 8, Hodge allowed six earned runs in 1/3 of an inning pitched. On April 18, Hodge allowed six earned runs over 2/3 of an inning versus Arizona. Removing those two outings, Hodge has allowed six earned runs over 22.2 innings pitched, good for a 2.38 ERA. Relievers are the most volatile type of baseball player — small sample sizes have a way of being fickle — but suggesting Hodge won’t be able to find his footing again would be foolish. He has six games this season where he has given up an earned run, and 20 where he went scoreless. The Cubs should still be adding relief help at the deadline, but a healthy Hodge returning to what looks like the deepest bullpen group the team has had in years is yet another reason to believe in 2025. View full article

Before we dive into the picks themselves, there are 2 common themes we are seeing with the way Jed Hoyer, Carter Hawkins & company are going about their drafts. The first is high-floor college outfielders. Starting with Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley with their first two picks, with Kade Snell following in the fifth round. My first thought here is how this relates to the current roster at the MLB level, while weighing in the state of the farm system as is. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be here entrenched in center, but the situation in the corners is foggy in the not-so-distant future. We all want to see Kyle Tucker in right for the next decade, but until that contract is signed, we have to think about the future without him. Ian Happ is a free agent after 2026 and will be 32. Top prospect Owen Cassie is MLB ready, but with the Cubs projected to buy at the trade deadline in a few weeks, he will be their most valued trade chip. The same can be said about Kevin Alcantara. The prospect list before this draft has five outfielders in the top 30; outside of Cassie and Alcantara, the other three (Brett Bateman, Christian Franklin, Eli Lovich) are lower ranked and not currently doing anything special this season. The three outfielders they drafted would replenish the outfield prospect depth and conceivably give them three players who can play a role on the big league team sooner rather than later. None of these guys are projected as future perennial all-stars, but in a draft class where many of the top-tier college bats come with significant risk, this approach by the Cubs is playing it safe by securing what should be major league caliber players. The Cubs have a long history of developing quality MLB players who are not stars, and they are leaning into that again this year. Another theme here amongst these bats is that they're all left-handed, and emphasize contact over power. That offensive profile is similar to the prospect report of Crow-Armstrong, so the Cubs know a thing or two about teaching lefty contract hitters how to add power. Kane Kepley probably won’t find a power surge, but Conrad and Snell could. Since the start of the 2023 season, Cubs left-handed outfielders have slashed .269/.344/.512 versus the .254/.315/.422 put up by righties. Much more goes into this than player development, but it is something to note. With the success of young lefties like PCA and Michael Busch, there is plenty of reason to believe that at least one of the players they drafted could be a productive big leaguer. The final theme of note here is the pitchers they drafted. Four out of five are college arms: Dominick Reid, Pierce Coppola, Jake Knapp and Colton Book. These are big boys, and they all produced plus strikeout numbers in 2025 while limiting walks. They all have one plus secondary pitch to pair with an above-average fastball that should tick up a bit after working with big league trainers. If any of these players develop a consistent third pitch, the ceiling is there for each of them to be a back-end to mid-rotation starter in the future. If the rotation doesn’t work out, there should be plenty of optimism about their transition to the bullpen. Reid, Coppola and Book have already generated some buzz as potential relievers. They are all projects to a degree, but so was Cade Horton. Remember, he was a shocking pick at No. 7 overall back in 2022. Jaxon Wiggins is another arm who has seen his stock rise of late. Brandon Birdsell was taken out of Texas A&M, and he is another large body who throws hard and strikes hitters out. Similar to the outfielders, there was a type of player that player development believes that they have success with, and they wanted to stockpile that type. These strategies read like this: develop the role players, sign the stars. So, Tucker is staying, right? Let's dive into their top ten picks from the class. 1. (17th overall) Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest The Cubs make it three straight years selecting a college bat with their top pick. They might regret passing on Virginia star Ike Irish, or the boom-or-bust phenom Jace LaViolette, but Conrad is still an exciting pick. He was ranked as the #28 draft prospect per MLB.com, but boosted his draft stock with an amazing start to 2025. In 97 plate appearances, he was slashing .372/.495/.744 with a 1.238 OPS. He suffered a shoulder injury that cost him the rest of the season, but if he continued to play at that level, there's a good chance he is off the board before the Cubs pick at 17. As aforementioned, Conrad is more of a high floor player. His contact/power mix, corner outfield arm strength, and solid speed for his size make him a safe bet to eventually be a solid-to-above-average major leaguer. This is evident by his 55 hit grade and his 50 power grade. The knocks are that he is a bit too aggressive at the plate, generating a lot of swing and miss, especially with breaking balls. There are also some concerns about his inability to pull the ball much. If the Cubs are able to cure Conrad’s swing and miss issues, this is a guy who could be in Wrigley by 2027. 2. (56th overall) Kane Kepley, OF, North Carolina Two selections in, two college outfielders in the class. Kepley is not the most intimidating hitter, as evident by his 5’8", 170 lbs frame. While he won’t be expected to swing it at the level we expect from Ethan Conrad, he is an on-base machine that can do plenty of damage on the basepaths. He went 45 for 48 in stolen base attempts, which was good for fourth in NCAA Division I. He takes his walks and does not strike out. He has excellent knowledge of the strike zone and rarely chases pitches outside. He hit .291/.451/.444 with 13 doubles and seven triples for the Tar Heels this spring. He has the legs to stretch a well-placed single to a double, but he will likely struggle to reach double-digit homers. However, Kepley’s calling card is his defense. He has PCA-like quickness and range for center field. If his bat plays enough to warrant regular playing time, he should contend for Gold Gloves. Kepley is another high-floor player that should carve out a role in the majors, but how big that role will be is yet to be determined. If the Cubs are able to turn him into the hitter they thought they were getting with Nick Madrigal, albeit from the left side, this pick will be a win. Another good comparison might be Adam Eaton with better defense. 3. (90th Overall) Dominick Reid, RHP, Abilene Christian University ESPN released their final 145 top draft prospects list at noon on the first day of the draft. Dominick Reid was not on that list. North Side Baseball released their top 135 prospects list, and Reid was also missing from that one. MLB.com has their list of the top 250 draft prospects. Dominick Reid did make that list, at #209. At first glance, this seems like a major reach for the Cubs. In three college seasons, he posted a 7-3 record and a 3.51 ERA, with his first two seasons being at Oklahoma State. Reid did break the ACU Wildcats’ strikeout record with 112 in 88 ⅓ innings, much in part to a lethal changeup in the low-to-mid-80s with lots of fade and sink. His fastball has some run on it and he has been able to get it up to 96, although it more commonly sits in the low-90s. He has confidence in both of these pitches and is not afraid to rely heavily on them. Outside of those, he has a breaking ball that resembles a slurve, but it is not very effective. For a college arm, his 50 grade for his fastball, and 40 grade for his breaking ball do not usually translate to "future front of the rotation starter". Maybe Reid develops a better breaking pitch and is able to hang around in the back of the rotation, but as of now, this seems like a reliever. This is another high-floor pick, but with a quicker trajectory to the majors. It is starting to become apparent that’s what the Cubs plan was in a weaker draft. The Cubs’ window is open now, and they want to add players who can contribute sooner rather than later. My issue here is that IF the plan all along is to use Reid in the pen, why not take the small, but hard-throwing reliever Brian Curley out of Georgia? 4. (121st overall) Kaleb Wing, RHP, Scott Valley H.S. (California) Currently committed to Loyola Marymount, Wing has been playing as a two-way player through high school. It is unclear whether he would sign as a pitcher now or choose to honor his college commitment where he might get to continue to play shortstop as well, where he is regarded as a plus defender. His fastball started touching the mid-90s this spring, and with his 6’2", 180 lbs frame, there is a lot of hope for Wing to add additional muscle. Besides the fastball, Wing has a big curveball that has more of a 12-6 break rather than a horizontal slide. He has a changeup too that is not too special at this point, but since the Cubs got a high-floor arm already, they now can take a developmental project like Wing. For what it's worth, Wing was ranked as the 95th draft prospect by ESPN, so it seems the Cubs got lucky to get him here. Prying him away from college will be easier said than done, so the Cubs will likely need to pay above slot to sign him. 5. (151st overall) Kade Snell, OF, Alabama The Cubs grabbed another college outfielder, and another Kade, in this draft. Snell was named captain of the Crimson Tide baseball team for the 2025 season. Coaches and players praise his work ethic, and say he is the toughest player on the diamond. This is a great sign for the Cubs, who seem to value clubhouse presence and leadership more than a lot of clubs (no, I am not just saying that because Justin Turner is still on the roster). Snell had his best season in 2025, finishing fourth in the SEC with his .363 batting average. Snell is another player with a keen knowledge of the strike zone. He struck out only 18 times while walking 38 times in his 262 plate appearances as a senior. Right now, Snell is a contact-over-power bat, but with his high exit velocity, he should be able to add more power if he starts lifting the ball more. Snell is a below average runner, which will limit him to a corner outfield spot, but he should be an adequate, although unspectacular, defender there. With no college eligibility remaining, Snell should be a cheap sign. 6. (181st overall) Josiah Hartshorn, OF, Orange Lutheran H.S. (California) Hartshorn is a switch-hitting outfielder with good power potential to all fields, who probably should have been drafted earlier. He was mainly batting righty in high school due to an elbow injury, but has since begun swinging from the left side again. He won the 2024 MLB High School Home Run Derby as a junior and has the most raw power of any Cubs draft pick so far. It will likely take an above-slot deal to sign him, as he is MLB.com's #108 draft prospect. We will see if he signs with the Cubs or honors his commitment to Texas A&M. 7. (211th overall) Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida Standing at a gargantuan 6’8" and weighing over 240 lbs, Coppola may remind Cubs fans of lefty reliever Luke Little. Though he was mostly injured this season, when he did pitch, he was effective. He struck out 43 hitters in 21 ⅓ innings and had a 2.53 ERA. This is a high upside pick, but the injury concern is going to be ever present. 8. (241st overall) Jake Knapp, RHP, North Carolina This is the second Tar Heel selected by the Cubs, and the second really large pitcher taken (6’5", 270 lbs). Knapp had an incredible 2025. In 15 starts, he went 14-0 with a 2.02 ERA over 102 ⅓ innings. He struck out 88 while walking only 16, and he pitched two complete games. Knapp is another high-floor player with a lot of polish already. He has also already undergone Tommy John surgery, so there are injury concerns, but the 2025 National Pitcher of the Year is worth a gamble. 9. (271st overall) Colton Book, LHP, St. Josephs (Pennsylvania) Stop me if you heard this one before: the Cubs select a college pitcher in the 2025 MLB Draft. His 3.53 ERA is not going to blow anybody away, but he struck out 122 hitters in only 86 ⅔ innings. If you compare his strikeouts to walks, he has a 6.10 K/BB ratio. Book may not stick as a starter as he transitions from college to the pros, but his ability to throw strikes and generate strikeouts is the blueprint for a quality lefty reliever. 10. (301st overall) Justin Stransky, C, Fresno State Stransky is a much-needed addition to the Cubs’ catching farm, because it is currently quite thin outside of Moises Ballesteros. Over his last two seasons, he hit .302 across 103 games. The 10th round is a great time to take a college catcher with offensive upside. Unlike some of the top drafted catchers, Stransky should actually remain a catcher throughout his career. View full article

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images With the trade deadline four weeks away, it's time to get serious about improving this Cubs club. Although they remain atop the division, a bit of that early shine has started to dim. The bullpen hasn’t faltered much, with baseball’s best ERA in the month of June, but every contender adds relievers at the deadline. The starting pitching, on the other hand, has the 7th-highest ERA in baseball since June 1. Ben Brown was sent down; Colin Rea looks like Colin Rea again; and Jameson Taillon seems to want to pitch in the home run derby. On the offensive side, they are starting to rely too much on home runs. In June, the Cubs were 27th in baseball in on-base percentage. Justin Turner still has not figured things out, and it’s time to think about a short-term contingency plan for Matt Shaw. If the Cubs want to fix a few of these issues with a single trade, the Royals have some intriguing pieces and a history of trading with the Cubs. This season has not gone the way many anticipated for Kansas City, after their surprise playoff berth last season. At 40-47, the Royals are 14 games behind Detroit in the division, and 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. They would also need to leapfrog six teams ahead of them. The future could still be very bright in Kansas City, but it sounds like this team might be looking to retool for next season. So who would make sense for the Cubs to target? Starting Pitching Cole Ragans isn't going anywhere, and he's injured anyway—but guys like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Kris Bubic could be in play. Starting with Lugo, the 35-year-old has picked up right where he left off in 2024. He has a 2.74 ERA (albeit with a less impressive 4.10 FIP) and an ability to work deep into games. He comes with a player option for 2026 at $15 million, but with his performance this year, it would not be shocking to see him test the market for a two- or three-year deal. Lugo has some postseason experience, and would likely slot in right behind Shota Imanaga in a playoff series. Similar to Lugo, Wacha is a veteran who has experienced a bit of a career resurgence since signing with Kansas City. He has an ERA of 3.62 through 17 starts, showing durability and a knack for getting batters out despite posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career, at 18.3%. Wacha did sign an extension with the Royals prior to this season and will be under contract through 2027, with a club option for 2028. Normally, a team hoping to return to contention probably would not want to trade a starter with years of control, but the frugal Royals might be itching to get Wacha off their books. Due to his age, there is some risk here for the Cubs, but the Cubs have more financial flexibility than the Royals and acquiring Wacha would likely cost less than Lugo or the next guy on this list. ZiPS projections have Wacha looking like a fine fourth or fifth starter in a rotation, even as he climbs into his mid-30s, and could be a worthy investment for 2025 and beyond. Lastly, Kris Bubic is enjoying a breakout year, with a 2.25 ERA and 101 strikeouts. He's accumulated 3.3 WAR. Bubic is under team control through 2026 and would give the Cubs the best lefty trio in baseball next season, once Justin Steele returns. It is largely assumed that Bubic would not be traded, but MLB insider Jon Morosi hinted that if the Royals received two MLB-ready bats, they would have to consider it. Who would these bats be? Likely Owen Caissie as the first, but the Royals may also want Moisés Ballesteros or Kevin Alcántara as well. Alcántara alone should be enough to get a conversation going around Lugo. As an added bonus, Lorenzen would not be a bad guy to target as a depth piece. His 4.91 ERA in 16 starts is not the most attractive statistic, but he can chew up innings late in the season and has experience pitching out of the bullpen. This is a guy the Cubs can find a use for immediately. Relief Pitching The Royals have quite a few relievers who are pitching well this season. Carlos Estévez, Steven Cruz, and Lucas Erceg all have ERAs under 3.00, and opposing hitters are batting under .200 against them as well. Taylor Clarke, John Schreiber and lefty Angel Zerpa are having solid seasons, too. Even though relievers are always the hottest commodity at the deadline, a Royals team that wants to contend as early as next season is not going to want to move many of these guys. Five of the 6 players mentioned above are pre-arbitration or hitting arbitration this year, so a small-market team is going to want to hold them. Estévez, however, just signed a two-year contract worth $22 million. Similar to Wacha, the Royals might jump at an opportunity to clear this from their books. With 22 saves and a 2.08 ERA, Estévez has to be one of the top targets for the Cubs. Daniel Palencia has been a nice surprise, but another high-leverage arm with a proven track record would make the 8th and 9th innings go a whole lot smoother come October. Estévez may be due for some regression, as suggested by his 3.49 FIP, but he is still having a quality season. With the success of Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Pressly and Brad Keller, Estévez won’t need to be the guy, either. Estévez to the Cubs sounds like something that needs to happen at the deadline, because it really should have happened over the offseason. Infield The Royals are a team that desperately needs hitting, so don’t expect any big-name, controllable pieces like Vinnie Pasquantino or Maikel García to be moved. The Cubs also don’t have a need for a big-time bat, but as I mentioned earlier, there needs to be another option for third base. This is not saying Shaw should be replaced, but there needs to be a more competent option than Jon Berti or Vidal Bruján. Would the Royals listen on a Jonathan India trade? He is not doing much, with a .247 average, only 4 homers, and a .663 OPS, but his career numbers and age (28) suggest he’s a better player than what we have seen in Kansas City. He also has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining, and has started over 20 games each at third, second, and left field, so he can fill a utility role both this season and next. Even with his struggles this year, his OPS is over 100 points higher than the Cubs’ third baseman on the year. This is another guy that the Royals would happily move if they find a taker, and it should only cost the Cubs a fringe prospect or two. The pitching in Kansas City is going to be their most valuable trade chips, but an India trade would go a long way in lengthening the bench and providing a replacement for Shaw if this turns out to just not be his year. One way or another, these potential trade partners seem to be circling ever nearer one another. View full article

Image courtesy of © Eakin Howard-Imagn Images About 10 days have passed since one of the most shocking trades we have ever seen in MLB, and Rafael Devers has settled in with his new team. It's time to look at this trade from a Cubs point of view. Multiple sources reported that the Cubs “inquired” about the availability of Devers sometime before he was traded to San Francisco. Since there has been no information regarding a potential trade package, we are safe to assume that their “inquiry” did not go much deeper than surface level. Although the trade is done, and with the Giants stealing one of the game's premier sluggers in a salary dump, it’s fun to hypothesize about what a trade to Chicago could have looked like. First, let's briefly review what led to the trade in the first place. Devers signed a 10-year deal worth $313 million prior to the 2023 season, with the deal set to kick in in 2024. This contract was originally thought to be a “make-good” for Boston’s Mookie Betts blunder, whereby the future Hall of Famer was traded to the Dodgers in a lopsided deal that felt like an insult to the fans. The 28-year-old has put up elite offensive numbers during his career in Boston, and was seemingly set to be the veteran presence in charge of leading their next wave of elite prospects. Then, late in the most recent offseason, the Red Sox signed Gold Glove third baseman Alex Bregman. According to myriad reports since, the Red Sox blindsided Devers with the Bregman signing, or misled Devers by saying Bregman would get reps at second base. The idea that Devers should be pulled off third base was not exactly ludicrous. He has consistently ranked as one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball since 2021. Despite this, Devers initially did not want to move off third when Bregman was signed, but eventually accepted his role as a DH. Just a few months later, the Red Sox approached Devers with another ask: play first base because Triston Casas is done for the year. This time, Devers stood his ground and refused, creating quite a bit of discourse among fans, the media, and former players. This is when the grumblings came out regarding a possible trade, but it all seemed like hearsay. After all, this team was largely considered offseason winners, and ready to turn a corner with top prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell all set to debut in 2025. Instead, the Red Sox’s relationship with Devers became unmendable. It was clear that Devers and top baseball executive Craig Breslow were not on the same page, and with Breslow not being part of the group that signed Devers, he didn't feel the same attachment to Devers that the Boston fans do. However, the point of this piece is not to dive into the questions regarding Devers being a team player; or Breslow’s robotic nature of running a baseball team. Let's talk about the resulting transaction. The Trade: San Francisco receives 3B/1B/DH Rafael Devers Boston receives RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Kyle Harrison, OF James Tibbs III, RHP Jose Bello The real key that sent Devers to the Giants wasn't the return package, but the payroll relief. The Red Sox cleared nearly $250 million in future obligations with this trade, and although they are assuming Hicks’s slightly underwater deal, it gives Breslow a lot more room to get the players he wants next winter—or perhaps offer an extension to another young guy. Here is a brief synopsis of who they acquired: Hicks is the name most Cub fans will recognize, from his days as a Cardinal. The fireballer has appeared in 13 games this season, starting 9 of them, and has an ERA north of 6.00. Since signing his deal before last season, Hicks has produced 0 WAR (.9 in 2024, -.9 in 2025). He's shifted back to the bullpen, which is probablt where he belonged all along. Harrison, the Giants’ top prospect (as well as the baseball’s top left-handed pitching prospect, according to some rankers) in both 2023 and 2024, is no longer that caliber of commodity. He hasn't been bad, with a 4.48 ERA through 182 Major League innings, but he has not looked like anyone's next great starter. Now there is some ambiguity in whether Harrison will be given more chances to start, or if he will pitch in relief. Boston's first move was to option him to Triple-A Worcester, which is telling. A powerful left-handed slugger taken with pick No. 13 in the 2024 MLB Draft (and who was a popular choice for the Cubs at pick 14), Tibbs has shown some promise. So far, however, he struggles heavily against left-handed pitching and looks more like a project than a sure thing. Bello throws hard, but is very much the lottery ticket throw-in of this trade. For those protective of the Cubs’ top prospects, this deal indicates that Devers could be acquired without them. It does not look like the Cubs would have needed to include any of Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, Moisés Ballesteros, or Owen Caissie, although the last of those might have been a good stand-in for Tibbs. The difficulty in putting together a package for Devers would have arisen elsewhere The Giants included Hicks to offset some of the money, but the Cubs do not have a pitcher with a similar contract situation to Hicks's. In theory, Jameson Taillon could be that guy, but the Cubs need him—and all the rotation depth they can find. A money sink isn't necessarily an integral part of this deal, but... well, let's come back to that. Harrison also doesn't have a directly comparable player on the Cubs. Jordan Wicks comes nearest, but his stock is down more than Harrison's is. He wouldn't have moved the needle for Boston, in all likelihood. The most intriguing possibility here might be more along the lines of a challenge trade—an old-fashioned 1-for-1. The Cubs would have needed to make room for Devers at DH or first base (which he is now open to playing). Those spots are handled by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, and while Busch has been good, Suzuki is the most valuable right-handed hitter in the lineup. So here is the hypothetical trade: Devers for Michael Busch (with the Cubs getting some relief from Devers's contract in the process). Boston has a glaring hole at first, and Casas's patellar tendon rupture leaves his future cloudy. On the Cubs side, it creates an interesting hypothetical: can Suzuki take reps at first base? He played infield in Japan, and seems eager to play defense whenever he can. Or, could the Cubs have simply slotted Devers in as the new long-term first baseman? The point is, a Devers trade would not be a clean fit, but he is the kind of hitter that you make the adjustments for, so you can get him in the lineup. For 2025, Devers and Kyle Tucker would have been in the same lineup. That would move the team into the “best lineup in baseball” discussion, if they aren't there already. We do know the Cubs’ spending habits, and a Devers trade would all but certainly have reduced their chances of re-signing Tucker this winter. If Devers was a free agent now, he would likely be commanding the type of money Tucker will want, or a very similar deal to the $500 million given to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Eight years and roughly $250 million is a fair structure, compared to what we are seeing players of Devers's quality make. It clearly had enough value to the Giants that the Red Sox were able to procure some interesting pieces, rather than merely getting out from under the deal. In reality, of course, the Cubs weren't doing this kind of a deal without Boston eating a substantial amount of that money—not the majority, but more than a nominal amount. John Henry, Craig Breslow and company were unwilling to eat the contract, so they made the deal with the first team who would; it is that simple. If this is an opportunity that the Cubs passed on in favor of a pursuit of Kyle Tucker; then so be it. If they didn't like the return they were asked for or the way they'd need to twist their roster to accommodate Devers, that's understandable. If ownership does let itself get outbid for Tucker, however, we may be sitting here nine months from now wondering what could have been. View full article

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images It's mid-June, and the Cubs sit a game behind the Dodgers for the best record in the National League, while carrying the second-largest division lead in baseball. The bullpen has been baseball’s best for the past month and change; Pete Crow-Armstrong looks likely to receive MVP votes; and Shota Imanaga should be back from his hamstring strain soon. This should be the most fun summer in Wrigleyville since at least 2018. With six weeks left before the trade deadline, the Cubs have two distinct options: let it ride with the current group while adding a peripheral piece or two, or go out and get an impact starter and reliever. Based on Jed Hoyer's public remarks so far, it sounds like they're leaning toward the latter. To make those moves, they’re going to have to continue to dip into their farm, which was ranked eighth in baseball before the season by mlb.com. As it stands right now, this trade deadline is going to be one for the sellers. More teams will eventually be out of the race, or a fringe team may decide to sell, but some of those teams that were figured to be sellers might not be. The Cubs may be battling with some of their divisional foes for some of the same guys come late July. So, who do the Cubs have to offer? Kevin Alcántara There is going to be a ton of buzz around Alcántara, and another outfielder (whom I will get to later). Alcántara holds the No. 4 spot on the mlb.com Cubs prospect list, and is largely seen as expendable due to the logjam in the outfield. He still sits on the back half of the top 100 prospects in baseball, despite not getting hot yet this season. His batting average is under .240, and while he does have an OPS above .700, this is not a guy who's forcing the team’s hand for playing time. His 6-foot-6 frame should give him easy pop, if he is able to cut down on his swing-and-miss. He also has 9 steals so far in 2025, and has the arm and range to stick in center field for a few years, giving “The Jaguar” a very interesting all-around profile. Alcántara could probably fetch a mid-rotation starter or a higher-leverage reliever on an expiring contract, almost on his own. Instead of trying to flip Alcántara to a team like the Marlins, Rockies (unless we're discussing reliever Jake Bird), or White Sox, the Cubs would be better off waiting to see if teams like the Twins, Orioles, Diamondbacks or Red Sox decide to sell. Owen Caissie In terms of Cubs outfield prospects, Alcántara would be Robin, with Caissie being Superman. Caissie is currently the No. 2 Cubs prospect (No. 45 MLB prospect), and will take the top spot very soon, once Cade Horton is no longer eligible. He was the centerpiece of the Yu Darvish trade that had many Cub fans scratching their heads. Caissie does not have the center field chops that Alcántara does, but his bat is more of a sure thing, as evidenced by his .902 OPS in Iowa. His June slash line is .396/.484/.736, with 4 homers and 6 doubles. Although he is still striking out a lot, this is a guy whose stock is soaring. Defensively, Caissie comes with a plus arm and solid range for his size, which will make him a set-and-forget corner outfielder if he pans out. He may not be winning any Gold Gloves, but that won't matter if he's hitting 30 bombs per season. Caissie would probably be in the majors right now if he was on a few different teams, and may be the next man up in Chicago if someone goes down with an injury. Caissie is the MLB-ready prospect whom the Cubs can include to get a frontline starter or a guy with some team control. There is an issue with trading Caissie, though: What happens if Kyle Tucker walks? The Yankees missed out on Juan Soto and have money to spend. The Red Sox just cleared over $250 million from their books. The Dodgers are the Dodgers and have struggled this season with corner outfield production outside of Teoscar Hernández. This is a whole article in itself, but to summarize, I remain skeptical that Tom Ricketts or Hoyer will pony up for Tucker. I worry that they'll be outbid. If that is the case, it might be foolish to move Caissie, unless there is a “2025 or Bust” approach afoot. Jefferson Rojas Rojas is another prospect sitting in the back half of the mlb.com top 100 prospect list. He is the Cubs’ top infield prospect, now that Matt Shaw is an established big-leaguer. The Cubs handed Rojas the third-highest bonus in the 2022 international market. While undersized at 5-foot-11 and 150 pounds, his bat-to-ball skills are seen as mature for his age. The 20-year-old currently has a .282 batting average, .840 OPS and 17 extra-base hits at High-A South Bend this season. Although he hasn't yet been tested in the upper minors, he has an MLB ETA of 2026. Rojas is not your standard 20-year-old lottery ticket, with raw, unrefined skills. He has shown an ability to consistently put the bat on the ball, with a little bit of power that should only increase as he bulks up. The Cubs believe he should be able to stick at shortstop, but a transition to second is not out of the question. Paired with another player on this list, Rojas included in a trade should help the Cubs land a high-end starter with control left after this season. With Dansby Swanson anchored at short (for now), Nico Hoerner under contract for another season, and Shaw capable of playing the middle infield, Rojas is a perfect trade chip. The Other Guys James Triantos (#6), Jonathon Long (#12) and Ben Cowles (#22) are all hitters in Triple-A who don't have a path to playing time on the current roster. Long has enjoyed a breakout season, while Triantos and Cowles have not generated much hype with their play so far. These are the guys you can dangle to teams like the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins for a reliever or two. Of course, none of those teams have a healthy, thriving player they're likely to be willing to move—other than Sandy Alcántara. His name will dominate trade rumors for the foreseeable future, and whenever he gets tied to the Cubs, keep the above set of names in mind. At least one or two of them will be involved if Hoyer decides to pounce and bring in the hard-throwing Alcántara. View full article

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images How it Started: Or, I should say, where it ended. In 2024, the Cubs got at least 24 starts from five guys: Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad. The hearsay suggesting there was little interest in re-signing Hendricks turned out to be true. As sad as it was to say goodbye to our last remaining 2016 champion, it was time. With Hendricks signing early in the offseason, the Cubs had one official rotation spot up for grabs. The Cubs signed Matthew Boyd to fill that one, but they never seemed seriously engaged with the top-tier free-agent starters (Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried), so they still had a spot to fill. Outside of some Jesús Luzardo whisperings, the Cubs were only tenuously connected to bigger names via trade. With no trade falling into his lap, inevitably, Jed Hoyer did what he does best: lean on roster depth and sign some fringe free agents. Hayden Wesneski, who started 7 of his 28 games played in 2024, was traded to Houston. This left Jordan Wicks, who spent most of 2024 injured, as an “option.” Top prospect Cade Horton would be ready at some point, and the mystery box that is Ben Brown rounded out the organizational depth. To all of those, the team merely added Colin Rea. Ok, that doesn’t sound great, but surely a mix of these guys could hold it down. As long as nobody missed significant time, this rotation looked good enough to compete in the division. Then, Javier Assad said, “Hold my beer.” An oblique issue flared up in spring training, guaranteeing that he would not be ready for the first few weeks of the season. Even with Assad set to miss a little time, the Cubs still had two left-handed horses at the top, and a dependable third option in Taillon. It was a setback, but this was not going to doom them early on. How It's Going: The Opening Week rotation of Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd and Brown inspired confidence. Even with Steele going down in mid-April, Cubs starters pitched to a 3.50 ERA (ranked #6 in baseball) and a 12-5 record. Newcomers Rea (Steele's fill-in) and Boyd each held an ERA under 3.00 through April, which surely came as a surprise to fans. Sample size be damned, Cubs starters performed this well against the high-powered offenses of the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. If the bullpen didn’t blow seven saves over that span, they could have ended April with over 20 wins, instead of 18-13. While the focus of this article is not the bullpen, it is worth noting that the bullpen in May had the lowest ERA in baseball, despite throwing the 7th most innings. Cubs closers converted eight of nine save opportunities. The rotation took a step back in May, but regression was certainly expected after Imanaga went down with a hamstring issue. As of June 8, the Cubs starters hold a 4.17 ERA. This is good for 19th in the league, which is a freefall from where they were at the end of May. There are two interesting data points here: Starters issued 36 walks since May 1, the fewest in baseball; but Opposing hitters smacked 31 long balls off Cubs starters, which is the 5th-most in baseball. As for individual performances, Taillon is responsible for 11 of those 31 home runs, Rea has an ERA closer to 6.00 than 5.00, and Brown has not shown anything resembling consistency. In this span, the two best starters have been the rookie Horton and the aged veteran, Boyd. Boyd remains a nice surprise, with an ERA just over 3.00 and 40 strikeouts, but they need reinforcements outside of the eventual return by Imanaga—particularly since Horton is likely to have his workload managed and massaged a bit later in the year. Where It Goes Next: Hoping for a return to pre-May performance from the rotation is a pipe dream. Rea might get better, but Boyd might get worse. Taillon is what he is. Imanaga and Assad will eventually return. There will have to be help from without, though, as Hoyer has already acknowledged. Merrill Kelly (from Arizona) and Zach Eflin (from Baltimore) rate among the high-floor, low-ceiling, relatively low-cost options already on the collective radar. Kelly is a 36-year-old who has been a model of consistency over his career. He currently has an ERA of 3.43, which would be the third-best on the Cubs behind Imanaga and Boyd. His strikeout rate would also be the third-highest amongst Cubs starters. There will be skepticism regarding Kelly’s availability, as Arizona hoped to contend this year. A hot month for the team could take him off the trade block completely. Eflin might be an easier acquisition, as Baltimore sits 13 games out of the division and has already fired their manager in what is quickly becoming a lost season. The 31-year-old Eflin has an ERA of 4.47 through 8 starts in 2025. That ERA is inflated by one start where he allowed 8 earned runs, but he has given up 3 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his 8 starts. Eflin is also a pitch-to-contact starter who relies heavily on his sinker, which will help keep the ball in the yard. Both Eflin and Kelly are upcoming free agents, and while both starters have pitched well, it should not cost a ton of prospect capital. Getting one (or both) of these starters will add some dependable depth to a rotation that desperately needs it. As for in-house options, the choices are few. Hitters are hitting nearly .300 against the former first-round pick, Wicks. According to mlb.com’s Top 30 Cubs prospects, only one pitcher not named Cade Horton is projected to debut in 2025, and that is righthander Brandon Birdsell. Currently shelved with a fairly severe shoulder problem, Birdsell may come in handy if the Cubs have a healthy lead in the division going into September, but he hasn't yet pitched even in the minors this year. Connor Noland leads the Iowa Cubs with 11 starts, where he has been solid but unspectacular. His 3.72 ERA and 1.20 WHIP make him the best starter on the Triple-A roster, since Horton was promoted. He is an option, but he does not have prospect pedigree and currently is not on the 40-man roster. Kenta Maeda was recently signed to a minor-league deal, but that's as much to help Iowa sell tickets and fill innings as out of any hope for big-league help. It looks like the trade market is going to be the best way to add starting depth. With Steele out, the Cubs will need to add dependable arms. Hopefully, a trade for one of the starters mentioned above is the floor. There will be plenty suggesting that a Sandy Alcántara trade is necessary, but with how poorly his 2025 is going, that may be a gamble the front office is unwilling to take. It's going to be a seller's market, and half the league will be looking for pitching. The Cubs' rotation has exceeded the expectations of many so far, but it's a long season, and the injury bug is biting already. The goal has to be to add someone who will start games come October, and the sooner, the better. View full article

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images The Cubs had a questionable approach to third base this spring, when they decided to hand the job to 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw. Shaw “earned” the job after going 5-24 in Spring Training, but this seemed like a decision that was made over the offseason, when the team lost the Alex Bregman sweepstakes. Shaw was optioned to Iowa in mid-April, which left the likes of Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and Gage Workman to handle the position. Shaw has since been recalled, and looked pretty good in the few at-bats he has had, but Jed Hoyer and company might not see this as a season-long solution. It’s a lot of pressure to put on a rookie, to hold down the job with no real backup plan. Bruján and Berti have been the Killer B's, but it's the Cubs they're killing. In the last 72 hours, multiple sources have reported the Cubs have done some preliminary “checking in” on Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon. This is not exactly a surprising rumor, given that McMahon has been mentioned in trade rumors frequently over the past few seasons and the Cubs have a hole at third base (or, at least, a half-vacancy). What makes McMahon an interesting fit in Chicago is that he is under contract through 2027, and the Cubs believe Shaw is going to be part of their infield for the foreseeable future. Would they really decide to bring in a guy who is owed $16 million in 2026 and 2027, when they have a third baseman? It makes sense from a 2025 standpoint, at least. This is a team looking to make a serious playoff run and it would help to bring in another, established option at third base. From a long-term perspective, the move makes less sense. In my expert opinion, there are 2 different thought processes that stem from a potential McMahon trade. Shaw is going to be used as a potential trade chip for a pitcher; although it seems weird to trade another third baseman, after already moving Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes. (And this one is a lot more interesting) As recently as the offseason, there were trade rumors surrounding Nico Hoerner. As it stands, Hoerner is set to earn $12 million in 2026 before reaching free agency at the end of the season. The idea that a McMahon trade makes Hoerner, not Shaw, the trade chip, would align with the offseason rumors. There is no way a contending Cubs team considers moving Hoerner midseason, but the team could be tempted to listen (or even propose offers) this winter. Shaw was drafted as a shortstop, and played second in the minors, so a shift to second at the big-league level should not be too much to ask. In theory, a McMahon trade would benefit the Cubs in 2025, by allowing Shaw to play more sparingly and potentially gain some exposure to second base by rotating with Hoerner, as well as McMahon at third. After this season, a McMahon trade could allow them to wait another year to find another infielder instead of having to figure that out after 2026. Does McMahon bring much to the table, anyway? With him in the lineup, the team would have four lefty bats around whom their everyday batting order would revolve: McMahon, Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Michael Busch. McMahon has not exactly been himself so far this season, with a .205 average and an OPS. under .700. Most of that was due to an ice-cold April, as McMahon is currently hitting .333 over 61 plate appearances in May. With 6 home runs on the season, he is on pace to reach 20 home runs for his fifth consecutive season (sixth, if you disqualify 2020). Besides the homers, he has never posted an OPS below .700 since 2018, so he would bring some consistency to a lineup that contains a few streaky hitters. On the defensive side, he isn’t a Gold Glover, but he plays an above-average third and should benefit from playing next to Dansby Swanson. If Tucker is re-signed, a 2026 lineup with McMahon hitting somewhere below 5th has a nice ring to it. It's important not to take trade rumors in May too seriously, and I doubt the Cubs will make a move for McMahon. There are ways he could fit, but unless Shaw looks unplayable up to the trade deadline, I do not see the team adding him—or any notable third baseman. View full article

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images As we speed into summer at Wrigley Field, there’s a definite buzz around the 2025 Chicago Cubs. Despite the perennial bullpen woes and the loss of Justin Steele, the Cubs still sit atop the NL Central. The Cubs had a similar record after April in 2024, but something feels different about this team. Maybe it's Kyle Tucker, or the fact that they were already swimming upstream by the middle of May last year and now seem to be hitting their stride. Maybe the team is just really pumped about the opening of Stolen Saddle on Clark St. (They, uh, have that vibe, collectively, don't they?) Whatever the reason, the vibes are good on the North Side. The Cubs currently stand second in the majors in runs per game; third in home runs; third in team slugging, and fourth in walks. If this offensive production is for real, the Cubs should be talked about as a legitimate contender that has what it takes to outhit any team on any day. On the pitching side, there is work to be done. Jed Hoyer and his staff know that, so we will see what kind of work they do. With that being said, let's dive into the legitimacy of some great (and less-than-great) starts to the season. Carson Kelly Did you really think we would start anywhere else? Carson Kelly has been the best offensive catcher in baseball so far this season. Did anyone have that on their bingo card? A former top prospect for St. Louis, Kelly was a key piece in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. Kelly showed flashes of offensive potential with Arizona, but ultimately became expendable after they acquired Gabriel Moreno in 2023. He bounced between the Tigers and Rangers over the next two seasons and put up a .687 OPS with 9 home runs over 313 plate appearances. When he signed with the Cubs, he certainly was not expected to do more than provide competent defense as a complementary backstop. Kelly grew up a Cubs fan; maybe his dream was always to be a star for the Cubs—and only the Cubs. Maybe this performance was always in him, but he was waiting for a team worthy enough. The truth is, Kelly does not need to have a four-digit OPS for this signing to be a major win. His production will inevitably drop, but if he can be a slightly above-average offensive catcher for the year, the Cubs will find themselves with the best catching situation they have had since Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini were at their best. The Call: Sell Kelly as the best catcher in baseball, but Buy him as a productive roster piece. Pete Crow-Armstrong If I was told, back in August of 2021, that exactly one player acquired in the sell-off of all sell-offs would be producing for the Cubs, I would be the first to show up at Hoyer's house with a pitchfork. Turns out, one player turning into the best center fielder in baseball is more than enough to make up for the Caleb Kilians, the Nick Madrigals, and the Alexander Canarios. [Ed. note: While the names listed here can fairly be called failures, we'll withhold torches and pitchforks alike for a bit, not only because of Crow-Armstrong, but until we see what becomes of Daniel Palencia (acquired for Andrew Chafin that July) and Kevin Alcántara.] Crow-Armstrong was a first-round pick in 2020, and was immediately seen as a potential Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. He was praised as one of the top hitters in the 2020 high school class, citing a quick left-handed swing that could allow him to hit the ball to all fields. There was always a question regarding his power, though. MLB.com prospect rankings assumed, if all goes right, Crow-Armstrong could hit about 15 home runs per year. Well, it's the middle of May, and the youngster leads the team in homers, with 11. He is third on the team in OPS, trailing only Tucker and Kelly. He has the fifth-highest WAR in baseball, sitting in the company of Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Jr., Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis, Jr. He leads the team in stolen bases, and his defense is a whole show unto itself. If he is can cut down on the strikeouts over the rest of the season, there is no reason he should not be picking up down-ballot MVP votes. In 2023, Cody Bellinger reminded us what it's like to have a capable center fielder roaming Wrigley; something we have not seen since Dexter Fowler. This version of Crow-Armstrong is making us forget about both of those guys. The Call: Buy Miguel Amaya Readers, I am sure you are familiar with this meme: It was hard not to feel that way toward Miguel Amaya, entering the 2025 season. Amaya signed as an international free agent in 2015, and first started appearing on Cubs prospect lists in 2019—as the No. 1 organizational prospect and seventh-best catching prospect in baseball, according to mlb.com. He was viewed as the heir to Contreras, even before the collapse of the previous core. After dealing with Tommy John surgery in the 2021-2022 offseason, he made his MLB debut in 2023. However, he was very streaky during his first two big-league seasons. He would provide fans some hope for a few weeks, and then have fans begging for more Yan Gomes during other stretches. This season, he is hitting .286 with an .815 OPS. I am unsure what the Cubs did to rejuvenate their catchers, but it is long overdue. Early scouting reports highlighted Amaya’s defensive ability, but stated he could turn into an above-average catcher with some pop. With catching being such a demanding position, it is not uncommon to see prospects need a bit of ramp-up time to fully embrace their potential. In the second half of last season, we saw Amaya get red-hot, and at just 26 years old, this does not seem like the peak of Amaya, this seems like the ascent into the top 10 at the position. The Call: Buy Matthew Boyd Honestly, I hated this signing when it broke. "Here we go again,” I thought, "overpaying a mid-30s pitcher who has shown an inability to stay healthy throughout his entire career." I felt it was a slap in the face to Kyle Hendricks to give Boyd two years while letting the only remaining piece from 2016 walk to the Angels. After undergoing Tommy John in 2023, Boyd was effective in 2024, sporting an ERA under 3.00, but that was across only eight starts. He has not made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, and for a team who needs starter depth, this was a questionable signing. So, of course, he has been the Cubs' best pitcher (not named Shota Imanaga), and it looks like a dependable arm in a rotation that can’t get enough of them. Boyd has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start; has not gone fewer than 5 innings; and is doing it against good competition. Out of his eight starts, two were against the Dodgers, two against the Padres, and one each were against the Mets, Diamondbacks and Giants. There are some reasons to be concerned, though. His FIP is almost a point higher than his ERA, and his batting average against is the highest it's been in since 2020. He is striking out a batter an inning, and not walking too many, but this seems to be more of a hot stretch than a 34-year-old, oft-injured journeyman turning into a front-line pitcher. He may continue to give quality innings, but this start looks like fool’s gold. The Call: Sell Ryan Pressly Brutal. The Cubs seemed to take an approach often used by the White Sox when they made the deal for Pressly: acquiring a veteran who is well past their prime. They did it twice for 2025, by also bringing in Justin Turner, who is also off to a miserable start. At least Turner finished 2024 on a hot streak, inspiring some confidence in the 40-year-old. Pressly was anointed the closer, but he has not closed since 2023. The two-time All-Star had seen his ERA rise and his strikeouts drop over his final three seasons in Houston, and started to lose high-leverage opportunities to Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Pressly would have been a nice complementary piece to a bigger move, like a Jeff Hoffman or Tanner Scott signing, but the “big bullpen acquisition” never should have been a 37-year-old on the decline. Pressly currently has an ERA sniffing 7.00. He has more walks than strikeouts; a WHIP nearing 2.00; and the highest hard-hit percentage in his career (not something that tends to turn around with age). He's been removed from the closer's gig, but replacing him is tough. Porter Hodge is probably the next-best option, but he has struggled in his own opportunities. If you ask me, every day that David Robertson sits on his couch is an opportunity lost for the Cubs (unless he's simply contented himself with retiring, which looks possible). The Call: Buy... that Pressly is cooked. View full article