Porter Hodge Shouldn't Be Counted Out Just Yet

Porter Hodge is currently on the injured list with a shoulder issue, about two weeks after returning from the IL. He had been there since mid-May due to a left hip impingement. His “finale” of sorts, before going back to the IL, was an outing where the Twins tagged him for six earned runs while recording only one out.

The purpose of this piece is not to dissect his last outing, but I will give a brief synopsis of how it went: walk, homer, homer, double, wild pitch, single, homer, strikeout, goodbye. He faced seven batters, and six of them reached base. Hodge now has a 6.85 ERA over 36 appearances in 2025. This is not the season that many anticipated after he posted a terrific rookie season with a 1.88 ERA, striking out 52 over 43 innings pitched. He appeared to have the inside track on the closer gig, but even as they missed out on guys like Jeff Hoffman and Tanner Scott, they still brought in Ryan Pressly to alleviate the burden on their budding young star. This turned out to be the right move as evident by Hodge’s negative WAR and limited availability this season.

Still only 24 years old, there’s time for Hodge to get back on track, but this is the type of player that may have a shorter leash than others with a better prospect pedigree. The 2019 13th-round pick appeared on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects twice (MLB.com): No. 21 in 2023 No. 29 in 2024. Hodge was mainly used as a starter early in his minor league career, but after 50 minor league starts, he was converted to a full-time reliever during the 2023 season. Armed with a high-90s cut fastball and a wipeout sweeper, but below average grades for command, he seemed destined for the bullpen regardless. Hodge made his debut in May of 2024 and cemented himself there for the rest of the season. His six saves in September last season further supported the argument that he should be getting serious closer consideration.

So, what happened to him this season? He has not looked right in his brief return from the IL, but he came into the season healthy and was still ineffective. In his 19 1/3 innings spanning from Opening Day to his injury on May 17, he posted a 5.12 ERA while allowing 18 hits. His 18 earned runs on the year has already doubled the nine he allowed all of 2024. If that's all there was to the story, Hodge would look finished.

Luckily, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that the 24-year-old can still bring it. It is worth noting that many of his batted ball metrics are in line with what they were last year, which is a good sign. His ground ball percentage, line drive percentage, fly ball percentage, and exit velocity are within one percentage point of last season. His hard hit rate has actually dropped from 35.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity is in line with last season while his average slider velocity has risen from 83 to 84 mph.

What actually inspires the most confidence in Hodge is his game log. On July 8, Hodge allowed six earned runs in 1/3 of an inning pitched. On April 18, Hodge allowed six earned runs over 2/3 of an inning versus Arizona. Removing those two outings, Hodge has allowed six earned runs over 22.2 innings pitched, good for a 2.38 ERA. Relievers are the most volatile type of baseball player — small sample sizes have a way of being fickle — but suggesting Hodge won’t be able to find his footing again would be foolish. He has six games this season where he has given up an earned run, and 20 where he went scoreless. The Cubs should still be adding relief help at the deadline, but a healthy Hodge returning to what looks like the deepest bullpen group the team has had in years is yet another reason to believe in 2025.