Brian Kelder

Miguel Amaya has been much improved at the plate recently, but the front office rightfully should not be fooled. The catcher position has been a black hole this season. Everyone but Jed Hoyer could see the risk in Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya. To what lengths should the Cubs go to address the position in the winter? Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Cubs brass should not be hyper-focused on this one position. There aren’t elite catchers available, for one. The second and more pertinent reason is the volatility of the catchers who would be available. Injury, performance attrition due to understandable fatigue, or just random variance are risky investments. The Cubs shouldn’t empty their prospect coffers for a catcher. According to FanGraphs, only ten catchers have over a league average WRC+. Let’s assume that Adley Rutschman, the Contreras brothers, Salvador Perez, Sean Murphy, Will Smith, JT Realmuto, and Jonah Heim are all unavailable as above-average hitting catchers on contending teams. Few other options would be sure even to approximate Miguel Amaya and his .588 OPS. Short of an unexpected deal for one of these certainties listed, the Cubs should focus on filling in as they have, not investing heavily in a below-average hitter. The average catcher tallies only an 87 WRC+. Take out the above catchers, and it’s not hard to see that any catcher coming over would be somewhat less than an impact bat. With the Cubs' farm system already slipping down rankings boards, the remaining guys should be dealt for elite bats or simply waited upon. Trading for 80 WRC+ guys is not a good use of resources. So what to do? The catcher position can be staffed by a solid veteran for next season. Go cheap at the catcher spot; spend on the rest of the team. The entire roster would benefit from finding the next Yan Gomes. A couple of names have been floated in multiple places. Logan O’Hoppe was floated by this writer as a target in early July, and I am very encouraged professionally that Jed Hoyer read it and agreed. It’s been confirmed by the Athletic that the Cubs attempted to acquire the 24-year-old with five years of team control remaining. It’s just so much attrition to the catchers of the world. O'Hoppe had a labrum issue just last season of the torn labrum variety. He’s also in a massive, massive slump, which many catchers go through during the dog days of summer. Imagine him being a key part of the lineup, then going 15 for 77 in a month. It’s just not a safe bet. On a recent podcast, Shadahev Sharma posited that the return for O’Hoppe would require more than the Cubs have to offer with young MLB-ready players. They don’t want the prospects; they want to compete sooner. Trading three top 100 bats, say, Kevin Alcantara, James Triantos, and Moises Ballesteros, is simply too much for a catcher. Sean Murphy is another floated catcher. He will be 30 and is owed four years and 60 million dollars on his deal. Nico Hoerner is the option discussed on the message boards. This is incredibly risky. Murphy has had oblique and hamstring issues the last two seasons, ruining his total line and leading to Travis D'Arnaud stealing playing time from him. Moving Nico Hoerner, while allowing for more power in the lineup, for another ex-Brave player over 30 who’s declining is a lateral move at best. There are no catchers in terrible teams who are about to get expensive, like Sean Murphy and Realmuto, who were for Oakland and Miami over the past few seasons. The only avenue that could work is a Michael Busch-style prospect trade. Dalton Rushing is blocked on the Dodgers, for example. The Braves have a prospect, plus two major league catchers. An upgrade from the currently offensively ranked 29 catcher position would be welcome; nobody is suggesting the upgrade wouldn’t be helpful. They do have the prospect capital for now to accomplish something. They don’t have much coming up below Iowa; these prospects must be used and leveraged correctly. A catcher is the most risky move they could make. Nobody is trying to argue that the Cubs are set at the catcher. They’ve been awful behind the plate. They should clip some coupons and hit the clearance rack for catchers until the roster is ready to carry a below-average bat with more elite hitters. They might even find the next Yan Gomes for a season. View full article

It was a down month for the North Siders but there were some standout performances. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo #4 Patrick Wisdom Wisdom hit only .222, which is the same on-base percentage as his batting average. Only six hits were had, and Patrick didn’t start but five games. Wisdom deserves mention for his flair for the dramatic; three of his six hits left the yard, one with a runner on every base. A slugging percentage of .593! July wasn’t a banner month for the Cubs, so Wisdom gets mention. #3 Ian Happ Much like the old-time phrase, Happ came into the month like a lion and out like a lamb. He carried the Cubs like a superstar in their sweep of the Orioles, but everyone’s forgotten that, as he’s only eight for his last fifty at-bats the last two weeks. Kind of Happ in a nutshell, right? Either a complete supernova in a good way or a nuclear meltdown in a bad way. #2 Miguel Amaya Amaya was given a few days off to concentrate on his hitting, and July showed some dividends. Miguel hit .333 that month, quieting the angry portion of Cub fandom that was calling for his DFA despite the lack of any replacement. .333/.400/.472 is a slash to dream on. His volume wasn’t as much as most due to days off, but another month like this would solidify Amaya’s spot in the Cubs' future. Cubs July 2024 Hitter Of The Month, Seiya Suzuki It’s time for Cub fans to embrace reality. Seiya Suzuki is a very good hitter. He might not be an MVP or All-Star performer, but he will win one prestigious award. Seiya is the July hitter of the month. In July, Suzuki tallied a .923 OPS, which breaks down into a .376/.523 on-base and slugging percentage. His .299 batting average, five dingers, and 21 RBI project to roughly 30 HR and 120 RBI prorated to a six-month season. This is no fluke; his WRC+ on the season is 134. Suzuki has been everything that the Cubs could ask for this season. Why is Suzuki not revered in Chicago? Well, he’s not the guy an offense can revolve around. He’s very good; he’s not elite. The other issue knocking him down has been health. This season was interrupted by the Dreaded Oblique. It typically takes him some time to lock in when Seiya goes down. May was not a good month. June was slow, but he locked in toward the end of that month. It’s not just the injuries, of which he has had one every year. The ramp-back-up keeps his overall numbers lower than his talent. It’s time to just appreciate Suzuki for what he is, not what this poorly constructed lineup needs him to be. A good analogy is his countryman, Hideki Matsui. He was never a superstar, but he was a very good bat, which was best utilized with the Jeters, A-Rods, and other guys you recognize by just their nicknames. He just plugged away, slugging doubles and 25-30 home runs when healthy. Nobody calls him a bust or focused on his weaknesses; he was just a vital cog in a great lineup. Suzuki has been cast as the best hitter in a lineup, extending him beyond what he should be expected. Don’t let that dampen your appreciation for a really solid player. Suzuki is locked in and looks to finish as strongly as he did last season. Hey look, a bonus paragraph! Here’s who’s going to be next month's hitter. Don’t keep receipts. Cody Bellinger is going to kick up the jams and really rock the mike like the Beastie Boys did Sabotage. The contract opt-out drive begins in August. There are no stats supporting this; it’s a narrative gut feel. Thanks for reading, and may your August be as robust as Seiya Suzuki in July! View full article

As Jed Hoyer navigates toward the end of his fourth season as the Cubs' General Manager, there is little to indicate his cautious ways are going to change. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports To his credit or possibly as a team-assigned part of his job, Jed Hoyer speaks regularly on 670 The Score. Mostly, these radio hits are deliberately vague and make Cub fans mad in either direction, positive or negative. For such a bland personality, Jed Hoyer evokes strong, strong reactions. This past week, Hoyer finally unleashed some juicy nuggets. Two tender, juicy quotes were given, much to the credit of the questioners. Here’s the first: First of all, the Dansby Swanson deal, according to him, needs to be efficient now. Oops! Hoyer is very smart, given his budget constraints. His owner will not sign a player like this unless he’s a unicorn MVP who can pitch and hit. It’s also wise policy not to rule out signing the best players in baseball out of hand. Reading into the quotes, though, a fan can’t help but feel pessimistic about the current Cubs' ability and desire to add in this meaningful way. The serious contenders have these types of bats; the Dodgers and Phillies have three each. Barring a shocking and unforeseen prospect breakout, the Cubs will continue to field an inconsistent product on the offensive end. The fan experience here also suffers. Who is the Cub who makes you say, “We need to get to watch that guy in person?” Of course, getting him will require that major contract. Count the Cubs out of that sweepstakes. Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker are out of the question. What does this mean for the off-season at hand? The Cubs will have a ton of freed-up cash, upwards of $80 million. They won’t play at the top. Anthony Santander might be the highest target. Corbin Burnes would fit; it's hard to see them pay that tag. Pete Alonso isn’t elite enough. Neither is Alex Bregman. Expect another bargain-hunting offseason, and expect the payroll to be lower than this season. This, of course, should be expected. They wouldn’t pay fair value for a Hall of Fame track player in Bryce Harper, whose best friend was a Cub, named his dog Wrigley and was asking to come. Juan Soto could come to the Cubs with the Andre Dawson blank check, and if the only ask was over $400 million or ten years, they would just walk away. It’s a poor fan experience to run a team in this way. Real teams don’t have to care about bad contracts. The teams just add around it. Being a Cubs fan means worrying about The Dansby Disaster because it will affect later spending. A Cub fan has to accept that they’ll never make a competitive offer to Shohei Ohtani, even if they did make an offer that wouldn’t be considered. A team that prints their own money (seriously, Clark the Cub is on the upcoming three-dollar bill) talking about risk aversion and inefficiency for deals is incredibly tone-deaf. You spend past the risk and make up for inefficiency. None of this is crippling. On to point two... This is very concerning on one level. Prospects, of course, need a runway to develop. The Cubs have an entire lineup under contract for two more years. Regardless, all of the regulars will be better than the prospects for two years. So why do they constantly trumpet their farm system like it will save things? Let’s use Owen Caissie as an example. He’s currently hitting .277 with ten home runs in Iowa. We already know that the Cubs don’t believe he’ll be a positive contributor right away, and he surely is not better than Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki. Same story for Matt Shaw. Same story for Kevin Alcantara. The lineup is not going to count on kids for production. Every time Jed goes public, he gives less and less confidence that he will be able to do the moves needed. The league pays attention to this stuff; saying he worries about long-term free-agent deals makes agents look elsewhere unless you’re Swanson’s agent and somehow snooker the Cubs into a seven-year deal. This caution must be shed, and the prospects must be used on the field or traded. It is time for Jed Hoyer to take control of this team and make it something great, not a collection of great values, View full article

Once upon a time, Christopher Morel brought Cubs fans much-needed optimism but now it's time to move forward with a legitimate third baseman. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports On May 18, 2022, the Cubs were in a dark place, sending their fans into a vortex of doom and gloom. They had sold off or let go of beloved fan favorites and entered into a rebuild that was not called a rebuild. With a 15-21 record, the promise of a deal that never happened of Willson Contreras and Ian Happ, and guys like Alfonso Rivas and Jonathan Villar in the lineup, it was a tough sell for anyone but the die hardiest of the die-hard to tune into this team. Enter Christopher Morel. Mildly hyped as a guy with loud tools and no real sense of how to use them, Morel's debut went well. Most fans will remember his first at-bat, the home run, and the hugs that ensued. Other fun moments, like the “breathe” thing with Willson, were had. Morel started strong but faded in that rookie year, batting under .200 for the final two months. Streakiness became a hallmark of Morel's time in Chicago, but this is not the time for criticism. In a time when the Cubs knew they would not compete, Morel was the perfect type of prospect to call up. He had what scouts call “loud tools.” When he made contact, the ball looked like it was hit by the Sammy Sosa cork special. The arm is an absolute cannon. Watching highlights of a Morel play is always a pleasure. Along with the physical flashes comes an even better backstory. Starting with his injury at a young age that almost cost him his career would make even the biggest cynic root for him. He’s a strong man of faith. The smile has been known to power Wrigley during the recent power outages that have struck Chicago. The hugs are annoying, but if you are wrong-minded and a hugger, that’s fine, too. But he ultimately was a distraction, a hope to keep fan interest during a time when fan interest would typically wane. The long home runs, the laser darts from third, and the personality all kept hope alive. The internet threw out comparisons to Cub favorite Kyle Schwarber as reasons to hold on to Morel. Rick Sutcliffe even compared him to David Ortiz this weekend. On Sunday, the Cubs front office made their thoughts clear. Isaac Paredes represents a real plan at third base. He will bring his 25-year-old thunder to the lineup for three seasons after this one; clearly, Jed Hoyer values his certainty even if he doesn’t project to be the mythical star that Cub Nation clamors for. The real hope is that the Cubs will start building for 2025 with solid solutions here. They have a third baseman, not a hypothetical one who has good xStats, not a prospect who, for some reason, hasn’t been promoted to Iowa, or their recent first-round pick, Cam Smith. We can count on Paredes patrolling the infield for the next three years, and that’s a good thing. Christopher Morel served his purpose well, imbuing optimists with the hopium their veins so often crave. But, as Louis Riddick said about Justin Fields, “Flashes get you fired.” And if Jed is fired, how will he afford to drive the next Suburban? Morel, unfortunately, never had the substance to go with the flash. Cub fans should be excited about this trade, both for the return and for what it means for the team going forward. View full article

The Cubs should entertain offers for all their players, and Justin Steele would be their best chip. With three years of control, current health status, and great production, any team would value Steele and what he would bring down the stretch. What could the Cubs expect in return for such a deal? History has few examples of pitchers with years remaining around Justin Steele’s level at the deadline, but they exist. Twitter is chirping with rumors of Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet; the Cubs should explore the return for Justin Steele. Trade One Pirates receive Chris Archer for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz. Chris Archer, yes, a former Cubs farmhand dealt to Tampa in an ill-fated deal for Matt Garza, is a good comparison to Steele. At his peak, Archer was a low three ERA pitcher with a 252-strikeout season under his belt. The Rays did seem to goof a bit, as his age 27-29 seasons watched him lose his control, with a WHIP around 1.40 for those three seasons. Cubs fans will recall constant rumors about Archer as a rare, controllable ace, much like Steele, and the comparison is apt. Even when he was traded, Archer had two years left of team control. For a time, he was the controllable theoretical ace who was available. The Pirates swooped in and saw Archer as the missing piece to their playoff run (he wasn’t). At the time, they dealt the number nine prospect, Austin Meadows, an outfielder who debuted with a .795 OPS, to Tampa. Tyler Glasnow has had a stellar career despite injuries, and even as a control-challenged fireballer who struggled for his first season to a 2.06 WHIP and 6.03 FIP, it was plain to see the former tenth-ranked prospect’s potential. Shane Baz was a young fireballer who served as an object lesson to never deal with the Rays. The Verdict As long as the Cubs aren’t dealing with Tampa, this is the trade they must make with Steele. Two top-ten prospects and a high-upside flier would boost the farm system, giving the Cubs a better long-term chance at a hitting star. This would be a great trade for Tampa Bay, and a similar deal would be outstanding for the Cubs. Another parallel to note is Archer and his health. At age 29, he began to have arm trouble and had thoracic outlet surgery, which was never effective after that. Steele had a Tommy John in the past and a forearm strain last year. Steele misses a month (back, two hamstrings, forearm) every season, and the time is right to move him before he breaks completely. Trade Two Frank Viola to the Mets for Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage Wow, this fits pretty well, except that Sweet Music Viola had just signed a big-money deal with the Twins and was pitching poorly and alienating his teammates. With three and a half years remaining on the contract, the Twins hit the reset button. In 1989, the Twins went 80-82, similar to a certain team this website is dedicated to covering. They saw the opportunity to add Rick Aguilera. Aguilera was a closer, which worked well, winning the World Series two years later and earning 42 saves. Tapani became almost equal to Viola. David West contributed but didn’t break out until he moved to the bullpen and Philadelphia in 1993. Verdict There’s no sign that Steele is any sort of diva; if I said that to his face, the Mississippi guys would probably make me feel somewhat uncomfortable. This trade did give a starter, a closer, a prospect, and financial flexibility, which was used to sign Chili Davis. Yes, the Cubs could do a trade like this, but if flexibility is the goal, then deal Jameson Taillon and keep Steele. Trade Three Tigers trade Justin Verlander for Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez, and C Jake Rogers. Ouch. All Verlander did was win a World Series, have two more Cy Young quality seasons, and solidify his Hall of Fame candidacy. The Tigers didn’t make a good trade here for an ace with this amount of time remaining. Franklin Perez battled injuries and poor performance and is out of the minors. Cameron toils now as a backup in Oakland, and Rogers is a weak hitting catcher for the Tigers. The Verdict The problem here was the upside in the prospects wasn’t there. Only Perez was a top 100 prospect and only ranked 46. The Cubs shouldn’t do this kind of deal. They have enough of that level of prospect already. This trade for Steele would be a future salary dump and set the team back years. The Cubs should look to deal Steele for a similar package as Chris Archer: two top-ten prospects and a flier. If they can get that kind of return, their trajectory will be altered quickly. Shop Steele and work for a more sustainable future. View full article

Jed Hoyer has delivered on one key part of his vision: the rotation. Boasting three pitchers in the top ten in ERA in the National League and a fourth in 11th place, the vaunted pitching lab has churned out an excellent rotation. Even better, four of the five key rotation members are under control for two or more seasons beyond 2024. It’s been a rare success for this front office. Justin Steele leads this charge. In the past two seasons, he has a 2.73 ERA among pitchers who have pitched over 300 innings. It’s not particularly close, either; Zach Gallen is next with 2.96. This guy is pitching like an ace. Normal big market teams would extend Steele, making him their long-term ace. He’s been very good for a period of time that proved his worth even to the staunchest doubter. His free agency is in three years at age 32. Would the Cubs extend him now beyond that time? Or is he, as suggested several times on this site, a great trade chip? Looking back from the crow's eye view of the entire rotation, Shota Imanaga is an All-Star in the fold for four more years at a reasonable salary. Jameson Taillon has had a resurgent half with two years remaining on his deal. Javier Assad isn’t even making a million dollars and is far from arbitration. This rotation is built for continuity. With all of their rotation on affordable deals and performing as a top-ten MLB staff, Jed is proving adept at building a rotation affordably. The question to be answered is whether this is a one-time group, everything breaking right at the same time, or a sustainable skill. This question can’t be answered until some time has passed, but if Steele is dealt, it will look as if Hoyer feels he can repeat. Another factor is the attrition in the farm system and young starters due to injury. Steele is no iron man; he’s missed over a month every season with back, hamstring, and elbow issues. But for now he’s going healthy and well, unlike Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and the entire minor league Double-A squad. The risks of not extending Steele and having prospects break are high and evident in how 2024 has progressed. If a fan has bought into this Hoyer plan, they will likely scoff at the idea of trading the team's best pitcher and tremendous development story. Teams just don’t trade controllable pitchers who have been in the Cy Young conversation. The front office also values their jobs, presumably, despite making self-sabotaging moves like Christopher Morel as the cleanup man. Trading Steele would be tantamount to saying this iteration of the Cubs is a failure. The rotation as a whole has been the bright spot of bright spots in this slog of a season (so far). Justin Steele has been the center of this but is unlikely to be traded or extended this season. Hopefully, this would portend a long-term pitching staff that Cub fans can be confident in. And for pity’s sake, get an offense worthy of this great and unique staff. View full article

With the deadline fast approaching and decision time coming on a lot of assets, I’m fascinated by the Cubs and how they and the league will value their assets. This article will try to quantify the value of who the team has, how hard or easy to move they will be, and who would get a solid return. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Immovable Money/No Trade Clauses Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly There are not many multiverses in which these guys get moved, so let’s move on. Theoretically, the first three would be long-term building blocks, but they fit better here with difficulty moving them. Long-term Building Blocks Michael Busch, Shota Imanaga, young pitchers, prospects We shouldn’t expect any young pitcher in their arbitration years to be traded this year. They’re trying to stockpile these guys, not deal with them in a last-place season. Michael Busch initially looks like the solution, or at least gets a longer leash to prove or disprove things. Also, prepare to be disappointed if you are hoping to trade prospects for a rental type like Pete Alonso. It’s not the season to buy like that, and they are still hopeful to get production from this group. Distressed Assets Hector Neris, Christopher Morel These two guys have struggled by any measure, and trading them now would equate to a sell-low or give-up deal. Maybe a team like the Marlins or Rockies would trade some assets to reclaim Morel if his season performance wasn’t too discouraging. Neris is the opposite; he would be bullpen depth for a contender. Neris is far more likely to be dealt than Morel, but it could be time to move on if they’ve seen enough of the Morel experience and his nose ring. Valuable Veterans Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon Now we’re cooking with gas! All three of these guys will be in demand if Jed Hoyer decides to do a reset button. You know, not delete the whole game, but just a bit of a refresh here. We all know Bellinger's struggles, especially relative to his contract, and the return wouldn’t be too much, given his opt-out after this season. Nico Hoerner is the same, even if he has two more years on his deal. The Dodgers are an obvious fit and have plenty of kids to deal with, even MLB-ready ones like Michael Busch. Jameson Taillon has been prominent in rumors lately due to his solid performance and semi-affordable contract. He’s a guy to watch given his experience and propensity to break down in the past. And don’t forget that he has experience in the AL East, which is always a bonus for contenders. The Extras Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, the catchers, Mike Tauchman They could move them, but why? I won’t get anything back. If anything, these guys would go to the minors if a prospect is ready. The Projects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks At some point, Jed might want to consolidate guys like this with apparent injury and performance risks for better, generational-type prospects. One example, which is not sourced, is that the Yankees wanted Cody Bellinger. Perhaps adding another prospect would entice them to relinquish Jasson Dominguez? Now, the aggregators can circle the wagons on my fake reporting. But that’s how this group would be used. The Golden Ticket Justin Steele He would return the most from the roster. He gets dealt only if the front office is convinced the Cubs are three years or more away. I don’t see them deciding this, regardless of last place standings. Trading Steele would be controversial and cause fan angst, but it would also net some serious cheddar in the prospect realm. The big picture is that the Cubs are not in a position to sell, nor have they constructed a roster conducive to such an action. With Jed coming up on a possible extension, it’s tricky. The front office finds themselves in an unenviable position this month. View full article

The way this season has gone is obviously not what fans wanted. For sure, it’s not what the front office expected. We can assume that while taking breaks from counting dollar bills like Scrooge McDuck, even Tom Ricketts himself would prefer that this season would not be a last-place one. So, the obvious thing that struggling teams do is sell at the deadline. Image courtesy of © Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs aren’t in a position to sell at the trade deadline. Despite their talk of intelligent spending and maintaining flexibility, they are locked into this roster with no obvious moves to sell. It’s time to add on and buy for the rest of this season and beyond. The first reason the Cubs need to add is the veterans' current contract situations. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have that pesky no-trade clause; they aren’t leaving. Cody Bellinger is technically on a one-year deal but is struggling to live up to his massive 27.5 million dollar price tag. He won’t fetch much in return. These three aren’t the most untradable contracts in the lineup. Dansby Swanson is hitting worse than Tomas Nido. Recently, against Tyler Anderson of the Angels, he whiffed away for three strikeouts, lowering his season batting average to .203. Zero teams are willing to take on a five-year deal totaling $136 million for some solid defense and leadership. He can’t be moved. As poorly as it performs, this lineup doesn’t have a moveable player. Michael Busch would fetch some goodies, but why? Christopher Morel isn’t going to get back anything worthwhile. The league will question PCA bat. We will not see a major sell trade from the pitching staff either, especially with Jed Hoyer entering the last year of his deal and ownership having a video discussing how they should win the division. Justin Steele would be the aggressive choice; this is not an aggressive front office. This staff is built to add on to, not sell from. So what should the Cubs do? Here are a few options. These, of course, are not sourced: 1. Trade prospects for an established asset at starting pitcher, relief, third base, or even center field. The Cubs have a deep farm system, but none of their prospects are good or highly rated enough to be considered untouchable or sure things. Brennen Davis's sad saga should remind the Cubs that it is possible to hold on to prospects for too long. Owen Caissie will need a 40-man slot next season or will undoubtedly be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Kevin Alcantara is currently a year away from being a year away, also taking a 40-man roster position. Neither are sure things ever will debut. They should deal with this glut of prospects similarly to what the Dodgers did to get Mookie Betts; the Braves did to get Matt Olson or the Orioles did to obtain Corbin Burnes. 2. Trade established guys for more prospects: this only works for me if you will work it out somehow for a top-ten prospect type. For example, if Jed targets Spencer Jones from the Yankees, he could dangle Bellinger and some prospects, like Alcantara or some A-level guys with some upside. This would possibly entice a team to part with Spencer Jones, who would instantly become the system's crown jewel. The Cubs are deep with okay prospects; this route gets them to legit top-farm status. 3. Clear salary and a bit of a reset: the Cubs have upwards of 40 million in cash coming off the books, and if they want to run at Juan Soto or add and extend a big bat, this could be an option. Jameson Taillon would clear off some space and would fetch a modest return. Hector Neris is another guy who would be at least wanted by a team or two based on his past. If the Cubs do this, it’s a clear signal that they want to add, add, and add some more to the current roster. Of course, we can all question if Jed Hoyer will be able to pull it off and be aggressive enough to land a guy. In conclusion, the Cubs just aren’t good enough as they stand right now, and they certainly shouldn’t add a rental player for some sort of playoff run. The problem is, unless Swanson and Morel turn themselves around, the current roster is boxed into a 75-82-win season. Jed Hoyer is not in an enviable position here. The deadline will be a fascinating exercise in roster construction and will tell the league what Hoyer and the Ricketts ownership is all about. View full article

We're here to break down the month of June for the Cubs. The month was not good, but were there any pitchers who performed well? (Yes!) View full article

In this wasted year, it’s time to put everything on the table. The Cubs have no great bats. The system isn’t developing a great bat. A baseball team needs a great bat to win; there is no chance this bat will come. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Looking at the World Series winners from the past 20 years, all but one had either an MVP-level season or a Hall of Fame player on them. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, and Buster Posey are the names from just the last ten years. The Cubs have no such names on the roster or the farm. It’s time to trade Justin Steele for some bats with that potential. But why would we want to move the Cubs' most consistent pitcher since Jon Lester? The first reason to advocate for a Steele trade is how long he's under team control. With his current $4 million contract and three more years of control, Steele's return in trade should be elite. Garrett Crochet is the only starter with Steele's combination of performance and controllability. Secondly, and alongside the first point, it's unsure whether Steele will be a great asset until his team control ends at age 32. His injury history is under-discussed. He already has one Tommy John surgery in that left elbow. Two of the past three seasons have been interrupted with hamstring issues, and the third with a (gulp) forearm strain. His history is dotted with yearly injuries; as he ages, this will probably increase (note Dansby Swanson's constant issues as a much better athlete). Because of how cautious this front office is, their pitching staff is littered with injury-prone pitchers. Jameson Taillon is a time bomb. Javier Assad just broke. Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are also casualties. Steele isn’t the 180-inning anchor that the Cubs need. Flip him before he breaks, as well. I can read your mind, random internet reader. The Cubs were just one game away from the playoffs, and he was a Cy Young candidate. Who else on this team will net even the possibility of that great future Cub? They won’t splurge for a Juan Soto contract and haven’t developed a true star. Steele is their best and most valuable trade chip. It's hard to speculate on teams' willingness to trade for any specific player, but the Orioles would be the perfect match for the Cubs. Samuel Basallo profiles as the corner infield power bat that would fit exactly what the lineup is missing. Connor Norby has no position in Baltimore and would fit in a future infield with Matt Shaw. Heston Kjerstad is another power bat with Kyle Tucker upside. It's hard to predict which players Baltimore will make available, but the excitement of this trade would help salvage this sorry season. Look, I have nothing against Justin Steele. He’s been much more than many predicted he would be in 2022. I had him pegged as a 4.50 starter, a 4th starter type of pitcher. He could continue to perform as he has over the past 16 months but for the Cubs to acquire the legitimate stars they need to contend, Steele offers their best opportunity. The Cubs might need to purge the roster of anyone on the team when they dumped the fan favorites a few years ago. The stench of tanking and on-purpose failure needs to be expunged. Steele moving on would be a great first step toward a legitimate rebuild. View full article

Things won't stay this bad forever. But I'm not sure they'll get much better, either. Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports I'm in a bad, bad place as a Cub fan. I don't believe in this plan or that this iteration of the Cubs will ever be more than it is right now, for this season, anyway. No, I'm not going to rail about how Ricketts is cheap right now. Nah, it's not time to say Hoyer is not smart enough to do this job. It's some simple facts in team building this roster, two to be exact, that lead this team to be perceived to be performing below the sum of its parts. Let's discuss defense. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are elite. Cody Bellinger is very good. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a joy in center field. How, then, do the Cubs rank among the bottom ten defenses in the league? I took a trip to the Savant page to check out some things. It turns out that Swanson isn't getting to play up the middle like some do, and Hoerner isn't covering to his left, either. It almost seems like they might be covering for a terrible defender at third base or something. Oh, wait. That guy, the youthful, exuberant, nose-ringed, and fake grenade-tossing Christopher Morel, is by the numbers one of the five worst defenders at any position. You can't do that, Jed! There's no way you build a team around defense and then compromise it with the worst defensive third basemen you can find. It's affecting the entire infield. Jed's second mistake was the bullpen. He could have brought in more than a heart attack, but that's not my focus. Adbert Alzolay has been injured in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this could have been predicted. Julian Merryweather has had arm issues since 2019. Mark Leiter Jr has no track record of sustained success over multiple seasons. Counting on these guys again was, in my opinion, Hoyer's blunder. Why did Jed have to stick with these cheap, injury-prone retreads? Six reasons: Kyle Hendricks Drew Smyly Trey Mancini Jameson Taillon Tucker Barnhart Dansby Swanson He's overpaid all of these guys, and they account for 70 million in payroll. He missed straight up. These are job-jeopardizing mistakes for a roster philosophy of depth and zero holes. A lot has been made of Jed's reluctance to commit to long-term deals, and that's a legitimate Cub fan complaint. But Tom Reinsdorf, oh, sorry, Ricketts, is also culpable. He pulled the rug out on Theo Epstein when he wouldn't allow a Bryce Harper offer and pulled the rug out on all Cub fans after the biblical losses the billionaire claimed to have had after that pesky pandemic. I'm not trying to rehash all of what 2021 was, but the lessons about how the owner operates should persist. Guys who behave cheaply in the past tend to behave cheaply in the future. I have been a cheap Dutchman for years. It's an engrained pattern for us. Hoyer is a smart guy and knows if he locks in a guy and it's a mistake or injury, he's just lost that major piece of the puzzle with little recourse to add it back (You can only spend that money once, right?) Look, I know this is negative, and I know a good number will disagree and point to the starting pitching and prospects. To you, I say yes! These are wonderful things! But how did we waste this pitching start by not fully buying into it? With a properly built roster, this staff would be a true contender. Let's see if they can shut random writers up and turn this around. They have to. Help isn't coming through that door. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, Either in success or failure. View full article

As the Cubs are reeling in the National League Central, the Angels are flailing in the dark. What Angels players would help the Cubs right the ship in 2024? Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports The trade deadline is traditionally when good teams pillage the bad ones and take all their good players. Of course, we are assuming the Cubs are a good team (TBD) and that they will be in a position to add to their squad (of course they are). The Los Angeles Angels are not contenders by any metric or statistic. They are bad. Count your blessings, Cub fans; it could always be worse. At least they have the benefit of a stacked farm system, right? After a quick check of the Google machine, it seems as if they have the worst farm system with exactly zero top 100 guys. If there were ever a team that needed to sell and reset like I do in The Show when I’m down 10, it’s this team. The Cubs, of course, have a top 5 farm system everywhere, so if I were the Angels, I would target guys who may be blocked. If I were the Cubs, I would also be looking to trade some of the same guys. A brief list of guys I would be willing to part with to make prospect people mad is below. This is even in order of my preference to deal. I’m sure the comments will be kind, right? Kevin Alcantara James Triantos Alexander Canario There are top 100 guys here, but all of them are blocked for the next several years. The Angels should be looking for guys with this profile, and the Cubs are loaded with guys like this. The issue is that only one of the guys mentioned after this is worth any of these guys. Logan O’Hoppe is my favorite trade target from the Angels. He’s 24 and still in his pre-arbitration years. Jed loves himself some team-controlled years. O’Hoppe would make Jed happy to add for the cheap, nondecline years. Oh, silly me, burying the lead. O’Hoppe is a catcher, and we all know the Cubs desperately need a solution at that position. We’re not talking about a superstar here, but he is a controllable and cheap talent with an upside and a high floor. Currently, he’s sporting a 102 WRC+ and on pace for 2 WAR. If I were the Angels, I would look to the Cubs for some high-upside prospects and cash in on Logan O’Hoppe. The Cubs could easily deal 1 or 2 of their upside guys and come out ahead. Keep in mind that I think the Angels should tear things down to the bare foundation. Luis Rengifo is another target for the Cubs. He’s 27 and still has next year in his arbitration years. Rengifo is the solution to the Nick Madrigals and Miles Mastrobuonis, possibly better than Christopher Morel (ducks). One thing that the Cubs seem to lack is speed and baserunning savvy. Rengifo is known for his stolen base prowess. Statcast likes him as at least a neutral base runner. Couple that with a .327 batting average, .843 OPS, and 137 OPS+, and you have four excellent stats. He would cost one top 100 guy and maybe some young prospects with upside I’ve never heard of. This guy would be a huge difference-maker, though, and Cub fans would love the excitement he’d bring to Wrigley. The Cubs would also benefit from the upgrade offensively and on the basepaths, not to mention his utility around the diamond on defense. View full article

Yes, I have been that guy. I've railed against the Darvish Dump. Rizzo, KB, and Javy on the same day? Criminal. Kyle Schwarber should be the DH. Why on earth did the Cubs not spend, then waste a seven year contract on a declining SS? Prospects, bah! I've also seen the sensible spending at a high level, appreciated the starting pitching and prospect capital that exists, and the defensive prowess the Cubs have assembled Do you get the picture? This is social media in a nutshell. Cub fandom has really become polarized about Jed Hoyer and his regime. Much like everything else in life, it seems like polarization and side taking is dividing Cub fans right down the middle. Not healthy, this. Let's look at a few controversial topics from the old Tweeter machine, Discord, Facebook groups, places like that and really look at what's going on in these situations. SPENDING Optimist: Look, the Cubs have a top 10 payroll, what do you want? Ricketts has proven himself in the past and will certainly spend when the time is right. Pessimist: When will the right time be? Why did he lock in a guy like Swanson (as has been covered well on this site)? How will we ever get a star bat in this lineup if Jed and the Ricketts won't spend? Reasonable: First of all, the cheap narrative is insulting to the 15 or so fanbases that are truly cheap. The Brewers, Marlins, Rockies, Twins, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, and several others would love to have this payroll. So cheap isn't really the word I would throw out here. It is reasonable to question some of the longer term deals. Jameson Taillon hasn't been steady which he was brought to do. Dansby Swanson's struggles don't need to be brought up again. Everyone remembers the Tre Mancini, Tucker Barnhardt, and Drew Smyly contracts that haven't paid off. To this writer, he's just done a questionable job of spending the money. If you count Kyle Hendricks, there's close to 30 million dollars in dead money, money which could have been spent on relief pitching or used to bring in a high level bat. Comments from the front office don't lead to optimism that a big spending increase is coming either. They want to sit below the luxury tax. They have said this, even said it out loud that their natural state is right at but below the tax. So if that's cheap, it's fair game. Summary: The Cubs aren't going to be huge spenders, but really can't be called cheap. More like, it's time to question how the budget was spent. PROSPECTS AND YOUNG PLAYERS Optimist: You have to give the guys a long runway and time to make adjustments. Baseball fans have to be patient, and I hate what this fanbase has become. Prospects even in the minors have organizational value. This is Jed's league! Pessimist: Still waiting for Christopher Morel to be a good player. Michael Busch is hitting .202 since May. Ben Brown won't be healthy. Where is this wave of prospects coming? Like, why is David Bote on the MLB team, shouldn't there be a prospect from our top rated farm system to come up instead? Reasonable: This depends on what you think the Cubs are doing this season. If it's supposed to be contention, then the moves should reflect that. If it's primarily development, by all means Morel should continue hitting cleanup, Busch and PCA should be hitting against lefties, and the kids should fill in the bullpen as needed. The question to me is the value extracted from the prospects. I said earlier, there aren't going to be 5 outfield spots for the prospects to play. What's going to be the plan with these guys? What happens if a top 100 guy busts? Then do you have to extend Happ again? It's just all so unknown. Nobody can win this argument. Summary: They're both right. Prospects to break out sometimes. They also don't. Right now I think the movie is in the middle and we can't judge the ending yet because we simply don't know what's going to happen. My advice is to dive into the prospects if that interests you; there's a ton of interesting guys in the minors. If it doesn't, don't get involved in discussion with prospect guys. They have their babies and love to hug their prospects and will tell you they won't watch the Cubs if James Triantos is dealt. So there you have it. There are many, many, many arguments that can be had, and will be had, on social media. This is just one writer's take on a couple of them. Go Cubs, and have a great day.