Brian Kelder

The way this season has gone is obviously not what fans wanted. For sure, it’s not what the front office expected. We can assume that while taking breaks from counting dollar bills like Scrooge McDuck, even Tom Ricketts himself would prefer that this season would not be a last-place one. So, the obvious thing that struggling teams do is sell at the deadline. Image courtesy of © Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs aren’t in a position to sell at the trade deadline. Despite their talk of intelligent spending and maintaining flexibility, they are locked into this roster with no obvious moves to sell. It’s time to add on and buy for the rest of this season and beyond. The first reason the Cubs need to add is the veterans' current contract situations. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have that pesky no-trade clause; they aren’t leaving. Cody Bellinger is technically on a one-year deal but is struggling to live up to his massive 27.5 million dollar price tag. He won’t fetch much in return. These three aren’t the most untradable contracts in the lineup. Dansby Swanson is hitting worse than Tomas Nido. Recently, against Tyler Anderson of the Angels, he whiffed away for three strikeouts, lowering his season batting average to .203. Zero teams are willing to take on a five-year deal totaling $136 million for some solid defense and leadership. He can’t be moved. As poorly as it performs, this lineup doesn’t have a moveable player. Michael Busch would fetch some goodies, but why? Christopher Morel isn’t going to get back anything worthwhile. The league will question PCA bat. We will not see a major sell trade from the pitching staff either, especially with Jed Hoyer entering the last year of his deal and ownership having a video discussing how they should win the division. Justin Steele would be the aggressive choice; this is not an aggressive front office. This staff is built to add on to, not sell from. So what should the Cubs do? Here are a few options. These, of course, are not sourced: 1. Trade prospects for an established asset at starting pitcher, relief, third base, or even center field. The Cubs have a deep farm system, but none of their prospects are good or highly rated enough to be considered untouchable or sure things. Brennen Davis's sad saga should remind the Cubs that it is possible to hold on to prospects for too long. Owen Caissie will need a 40-man slot next season or will undoubtedly be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Kevin Alcantara is currently a year away from being a year away, also taking a 40-man roster position. Neither are sure things ever will debut. They should deal with this glut of prospects similarly to what the Dodgers did to get Mookie Betts; the Braves did to get Matt Olson or the Orioles did to obtain Corbin Burnes. 2. Trade established guys for more prospects: this only works for me if you will work it out somehow for a top-ten prospect type. For example, if Jed targets Spencer Jones from the Yankees, he could dangle Bellinger and some prospects, like Alcantara or some A-level guys with some upside. This would possibly entice a team to part with Spencer Jones, who would instantly become the system's crown jewel. The Cubs are deep with okay prospects; this route gets them to legit top-farm status. 3. Clear salary and a bit of a reset: the Cubs have upwards of 40 million in cash coming off the books, and if they want to run at Juan Soto or add and extend a big bat, this could be an option. Jameson Taillon would clear off some space and would fetch a modest return. Hector Neris is another guy who would be at least wanted by a team or two based on his past. If the Cubs do this, it’s a clear signal that they want to add, add, and add some more to the current roster. Of course, we can all question if Jed Hoyer will be able to pull it off and be aggressive enough to land a guy. In conclusion, the Cubs just aren’t good enough as they stand right now, and they certainly shouldn’t add a rental player for some sort of playoff run. The problem is, unless Swanson and Morel turn themselves around, the current roster is boxed into a 75-82-win season. Jed Hoyer is not in an enviable position here. The deadline will be a fascinating exercise in roster construction and will tell the league what Hoyer and the Ricketts ownership is all about. View full article

We're here to break down the month of June for the Cubs. The month was not good, but were there any pitchers who performed well? (Yes!) View full article

In this wasted year, it’s time to put everything on the table. The Cubs have no great bats. The system isn’t developing a great bat. A baseball team needs a great bat to win; there is no chance this bat will come. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Looking at the World Series winners from the past 20 years, all but one had either an MVP-level season or a Hall of Fame player on them. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, and Buster Posey are the names from just the last ten years. The Cubs have no such names on the roster or the farm. It’s time to trade Justin Steele for some bats with that potential. But why would we want to move the Cubs' most consistent pitcher since Jon Lester? The first reason to advocate for a Steele trade is how long he's under team control. With his current $4 million contract and three more years of control, Steele's return in trade should be elite. Garrett Crochet is the only starter with Steele's combination of performance and controllability. Secondly, and alongside the first point, it's unsure whether Steele will be a great asset until his team control ends at age 32. His injury history is under-discussed. He already has one Tommy John surgery in that left elbow. Two of the past three seasons have been interrupted with hamstring issues, and the third with a (gulp) forearm strain. His history is dotted with yearly injuries; as he ages, this will probably increase (note Dansby Swanson's constant issues as a much better athlete). Because of how cautious this front office is, their pitching staff is littered with injury-prone pitchers. Jameson Taillon is a time bomb. Javier Assad just broke. Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are also casualties. Steele isn’t the 180-inning anchor that the Cubs need. Flip him before he breaks, as well. I can read your mind, random internet reader. The Cubs were just one game away from the playoffs, and he was a Cy Young candidate. Who else on this team will net even the possibility of that great future Cub? They won’t splurge for a Juan Soto contract and haven’t developed a true star. Steele is their best and most valuable trade chip. It's hard to speculate on teams' willingness to trade for any specific player, but the Orioles would be the perfect match for the Cubs. Samuel Basallo profiles as the corner infield power bat that would fit exactly what the lineup is missing. Connor Norby has no position in Baltimore and would fit in a future infield with Matt Shaw. Heston Kjerstad is another power bat with Kyle Tucker upside. It's hard to predict which players Baltimore will make available, but the excitement of this trade would help salvage this sorry season. Look, I have nothing against Justin Steele. He’s been much more than many predicted he would be in 2022. I had him pegged as a 4.50 starter, a 4th starter type of pitcher. He could continue to perform as he has over the past 16 months but for the Cubs to acquire the legitimate stars they need to contend, Steele offers their best opportunity. The Cubs might need to purge the roster of anyone on the team when they dumped the fan favorites a few years ago. The stench of tanking and on-purpose failure needs to be expunged. Steele moving on would be a great first step toward a legitimate rebuild. View full article

Things won't stay this bad forever. But I'm not sure they'll get much better, either. Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports I'm in a bad, bad place as a Cub fan. I don't believe in this plan or that this iteration of the Cubs will ever be more than it is right now, for this season, anyway. No, I'm not going to rail about how Ricketts is cheap right now. Nah, it's not time to say Hoyer is not smart enough to do this job. It's some simple facts in team building this roster, two to be exact, that lead this team to be perceived to be performing below the sum of its parts. Let's discuss defense. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are elite. Cody Bellinger is very good. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a joy in center field. How, then, do the Cubs rank among the bottom ten defenses in the league? I took a trip to the Savant page to check out some things. It turns out that Swanson isn't getting to play up the middle like some do, and Hoerner isn't covering to his left, either. It almost seems like they might be covering for a terrible defender at third base or something. Oh, wait. That guy, the youthful, exuberant, nose-ringed, and fake grenade-tossing Christopher Morel, is by the numbers one of the five worst defenders at any position. You can't do that, Jed! There's no way you build a team around defense and then compromise it with the worst defensive third basemen you can find. It's affecting the entire infield. Jed's second mistake was the bullpen. He could have brought in more than a heart attack, but that's not my focus. Adbert Alzolay has been injured in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this could have been predicted. Julian Merryweather has had arm issues since 2019. Mark Leiter Jr has no track record of sustained success over multiple seasons. Counting on these guys again was, in my opinion, Hoyer's blunder. Why did Jed have to stick with these cheap, injury-prone retreads? Six reasons: Kyle Hendricks Drew Smyly Trey Mancini Jameson Taillon Tucker Barnhart Dansby Swanson He's overpaid all of these guys, and they account for 70 million in payroll. He missed straight up. These are job-jeopardizing mistakes for a roster philosophy of depth and zero holes. A lot has been made of Jed's reluctance to commit to long-term deals, and that's a legitimate Cub fan complaint. But Tom Reinsdorf, oh, sorry, Ricketts, is also culpable. He pulled the rug out on Theo Epstein when he wouldn't allow a Bryce Harper offer and pulled the rug out on all Cub fans after the biblical losses the billionaire claimed to have had after that pesky pandemic. I'm not trying to rehash all of what 2021 was, but the lessons about how the owner operates should persist. Guys who behave cheaply in the past tend to behave cheaply in the future. I have been a cheap Dutchman for years. It's an engrained pattern for us. Hoyer is a smart guy and knows if he locks in a guy and it's a mistake or injury, he's just lost that major piece of the puzzle with little recourse to add it back (You can only spend that money once, right?) Look, I know this is negative, and I know a good number will disagree and point to the starting pitching and prospects. To you, I say yes! These are wonderful things! But how did we waste this pitching start by not fully buying into it? With a properly built roster, this staff would be a true contender. Let's see if they can shut random writers up and turn this around. They have to. Help isn't coming through that door. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, Either in success or failure. View full article

As the Cubs are reeling in the National League Central, the Angels are flailing in the dark. What Angels players would help the Cubs right the ship in 2024? Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports The trade deadline is traditionally when good teams pillage the bad ones and take all their good players. Of course, we are assuming the Cubs are a good team (TBD) and that they will be in a position to add to their squad (of course they are). The Los Angeles Angels are not contenders by any metric or statistic. They are bad. Count your blessings, Cub fans; it could always be worse. At least they have the benefit of a stacked farm system, right? After a quick check of the Google machine, it seems as if they have the worst farm system with exactly zero top 100 guys. If there were ever a team that needed to sell and reset like I do in The Show when I’m down 10, it’s this team. The Cubs, of course, have a top 5 farm system everywhere, so if I were the Angels, I would target guys who may be blocked. If I were the Cubs, I would also be looking to trade some of the same guys. A brief list of guys I would be willing to part with to make prospect people mad is below. This is even in order of my preference to deal. I’m sure the comments will be kind, right? Kevin Alcantara James Triantos Alexander Canario There are top 100 guys here, but all of them are blocked for the next several years. The Angels should be looking for guys with this profile, and the Cubs are loaded with guys like this. The issue is that only one of the guys mentioned after this is worth any of these guys. Logan O’Hoppe is my favorite trade target from the Angels. He’s 24 and still in his pre-arbitration years. Jed loves himself some team-controlled years. O’Hoppe would make Jed happy to add for the cheap, nondecline years. Oh, silly me, burying the lead. O’Hoppe is a catcher, and we all know the Cubs desperately need a solution at that position. We’re not talking about a superstar here, but he is a controllable and cheap talent with an upside and a high floor. Currently, he’s sporting a 102 WRC+ and on pace for 2 WAR. If I were the Angels, I would look to the Cubs for some high-upside prospects and cash in on Logan O’Hoppe. The Cubs could easily deal 1 or 2 of their upside guys and come out ahead. Keep in mind that I think the Angels should tear things down to the bare foundation. Luis Rengifo is another target for the Cubs. He’s 27 and still has next year in his arbitration years. Rengifo is the solution to the Nick Madrigals and Miles Mastrobuonis, possibly better than Christopher Morel (ducks). One thing that the Cubs seem to lack is speed and baserunning savvy. Rengifo is known for his stolen base prowess. Statcast likes him as at least a neutral base runner. Couple that with a .327 batting average, .843 OPS, and 137 OPS+, and you have four excellent stats. He would cost one top 100 guy and maybe some young prospects with upside I’ve never heard of. This guy would be a huge difference-maker, though, and Cub fans would love the excitement he’d bring to Wrigley. The Cubs would also benefit from the upgrade offensively and on the basepaths, not to mention his utility around the diamond on defense. View full article

Yes, I have been that guy. I've railed against the Darvish Dump. Rizzo, KB, and Javy on the same day? Criminal. Kyle Schwarber should be the DH. Why on earth did the Cubs not spend, then waste a seven year contract on a declining SS? Prospects, bah! I've also seen the sensible spending at a high level, appreciated the starting pitching and prospect capital that exists, and the defensive prowess the Cubs have assembled Do you get the picture? This is social media in a nutshell. Cub fandom has really become polarized about Jed Hoyer and his regime. Much like everything else in life, it seems like polarization and side taking is dividing Cub fans right down the middle. Not healthy, this. Let's look at a few controversial topics from the old Tweeter machine, Discord, Facebook groups, places like that and really look at what's going on in these situations. SPENDING Optimist: Look, the Cubs have a top 10 payroll, what do you want? Ricketts has proven himself in the past and will certainly spend when the time is right. Pessimist: When will the right time be? Why did he lock in a guy like Swanson (as has been covered well on this site)? How will we ever get a star bat in this lineup if Jed and the Ricketts won't spend? Reasonable: First of all, the cheap narrative is insulting to the 15 or so fanbases that are truly cheap. The Brewers, Marlins, Rockies, Twins, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, and several others would love to have this payroll. So cheap isn't really the word I would throw out here. It is reasonable to question some of the longer term deals. Jameson Taillon hasn't been steady which he was brought to do. Dansby Swanson's struggles don't need to be brought up again. Everyone remembers the Tre Mancini, Tucker Barnhardt, and Drew Smyly contracts that haven't paid off. To this writer, he's just done a questionable job of spending the money. If you count Kyle Hendricks, there's close to 30 million dollars in dead money, money which could have been spent on relief pitching or used to bring in a high level bat. Comments from the front office don't lead to optimism that a big spending increase is coming either. They want to sit below the luxury tax. They have said this, even said it out loud that their natural state is right at but below the tax. So if that's cheap, it's fair game. Summary: The Cubs aren't going to be huge spenders, but really can't be called cheap. More like, it's time to question how the budget was spent. PROSPECTS AND YOUNG PLAYERS Optimist: You have to give the guys a long runway and time to make adjustments. Baseball fans have to be patient, and I hate what this fanbase has become. Prospects even in the minors have organizational value. This is Jed's league! Pessimist: Still waiting for Christopher Morel to be a good player. Michael Busch is hitting .202 since May. Ben Brown won't be healthy. Where is this wave of prospects coming? Like, why is David Bote on the MLB team, shouldn't there be a prospect from our top rated farm system to come up instead? Reasonable: This depends on what you think the Cubs are doing this season. If it's supposed to be contention, then the moves should reflect that. If it's primarily development, by all means Morel should continue hitting cleanup, Busch and PCA should be hitting against lefties, and the kids should fill in the bullpen as needed. The question to me is the value extracted from the prospects. I said earlier, there aren't going to be 5 outfield spots for the prospects to play. What's going to be the plan with these guys? What happens if a top 100 guy busts? Then do you have to extend Happ again? It's just all so unknown. Nobody can win this argument. Summary: They're both right. Prospects to break out sometimes. They also don't. Right now I think the movie is in the middle and we can't judge the ending yet because we simply don't know what's going to happen. My advice is to dive into the prospects if that interests you; there's a ton of interesting guys in the minors. If it doesn't, don't get involved in discussion with prospect guys. They have their babies and love to hug their prospects and will tell you they won't watch the Cubs if James Triantos is dealt. So there you have it. There are many, many, many arguments that can be had, and will be had, on social media. This is just one writer's take on a couple of them. Go Cubs, and have a great day.