Brian Kelder

Things won't stay this bad forever. But I'm not sure they'll get much better, either. Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports I'm in a bad, bad place as a Cub fan. I don't believe in this plan or that this iteration of the Cubs will ever be more than it is right now, for this season, anyway. No, I'm not going to rail about how Ricketts is cheap right now. Nah, it's not time to say Hoyer is not smart enough to do this job. It's some simple facts in team building this roster, two to be exact, that lead this team to be perceived to be performing below the sum of its parts. Let's discuss defense. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are elite. Cody Bellinger is very good. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a joy in center field. How, then, do the Cubs rank among the bottom ten defenses in the league? I took a trip to the Savant page to check out some things. It turns out that Swanson isn't getting to play up the middle like some do, and Hoerner isn't covering to his left, either. It almost seems like they might be covering for a terrible defender at third base or something. Oh, wait. That guy, the youthful, exuberant, nose-ringed, and fake grenade-tossing Christopher Morel, is by the numbers one of the five worst defenders at any position. You can't do that, Jed! There's no way you build a team around defense and then compromise it with the worst defensive third basemen you can find. It's affecting the entire infield. Jed's second mistake was the bullpen. He could have brought in more than a heart attack, but that's not my focus. Adbert Alzolay has been injured in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and now 2024. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this could have been predicted. Julian Merryweather has had arm issues since 2019. Mark Leiter Jr has no track record of sustained success over multiple seasons. Counting on these guys again was, in my opinion, Hoyer's blunder. Why did Jed have to stick with these cheap, injury-prone retreads? Six reasons: Kyle Hendricks Drew Smyly Trey Mancini Jameson Taillon Tucker Barnhart Dansby Swanson He's overpaid all of these guys, and they account for 70 million in payroll. He missed straight up. These are job-jeopardizing mistakes for a roster philosophy of depth and zero holes. A lot has been made of Jed's reluctance to commit to long-term deals, and that's a legitimate Cub fan complaint. But Tom Reinsdorf, oh, sorry, Ricketts, is also culpable. He pulled the rug out on Theo Epstein when he wouldn't allow a Bryce Harper offer and pulled the rug out on all Cub fans after the biblical losses the billionaire claimed to have had after that pesky pandemic. I'm not trying to rehash all of what 2021 was, but the lessons about how the owner operates should persist. Guys who behave cheaply in the past tend to behave cheaply in the future. I have been a cheap Dutchman for years. It's an engrained pattern for us. Hoyer is a smart guy and knows if he locks in a guy and it's a mistake or injury, he's just lost that major piece of the puzzle with little recourse to add it back (You can only spend that money once, right?) Look, I know this is negative, and I know a good number will disagree and point to the starting pitching and prospects. To you, I say yes! These are wonderful things! But how did we waste this pitching start by not fully buying into it? With a properly built roster, this staff would be a true contender. Let's see if they can shut random writers up and turn this around. They have to. Help isn't coming through that door. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, Either in success or failure. View full article

As the Cubs are reeling in the National League Central, the Angels are flailing in the dark. What Angels players would help the Cubs right the ship in 2024? Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports The trade deadline is traditionally when good teams pillage the bad ones and take all their good players. Of course, we are assuming the Cubs are a good team (TBD) and that they will be in a position to add to their squad (of course they are). The Los Angeles Angels are not contenders by any metric or statistic. They are bad. Count your blessings, Cub fans; it could always be worse. At least they have the benefit of a stacked farm system, right? After a quick check of the Google machine, it seems as if they have the worst farm system with exactly zero top 100 guys. If there were ever a team that needed to sell and reset like I do in The Show when I’m down 10, it’s this team. The Cubs, of course, have a top 5 farm system everywhere, so if I were the Angels, I would target guys who may be blocked. If I were the Cubs, I would also be looking to trade some of the same guys. A brief list of guys I would be willing to part with to make prospect people mad is below. This is even in order of my preference to deal. I’m sure the comments will be kind, right? Kevin Alcantara James Triantos Alexander Canario There are top 100 guys here, but all of them are blocked for the next several years. The Angels should be looking for guys with this profile, and the Cubs are loaded with guys like this. The issue is that only one of the guys mentioned after this is worth any of these guys. Logan O’Hoppe is my favorite trade target from the Angels. He’s 24 and still in his pre-arbitration years. Jed loves himself some team-controlled years. O’Hoppe would make Jed happy to add for the cheap, nondecline years. Oh, silly me, burying the lead. O’Hoppe is a catcher, and we all know the Cubs desperately need a solution at that position. We’re not talking about a superstar here, but he is a controllable and cheap talent with an upside and a high floor. Currently, he’s sporting a 102 WRC+ and on pace for 2 WAR. If I were the Angels, I would look to the Cubs for some high-upside prospects and cash in on Logan O’Hoppe. The Cubs could easily deal 1 or 2 of their upside guys and come out ahead. Keep in mind that I think the Angels should tear things down to the bare foundation. Luis Rengifo is another target for the Cubs. He’s 27 and still has next year in his arbitration years. Rengifo is the solution to the Nick Madrigals and Miles Mastrobuonis, possibly better than Christopher Morel (ducks). One thing that the Cubs seem to lack is speed and baserunning savvy. Rengifo is known for his stolen base prowess. Statcast likes him as at least a neutral base runner. Couple that with a .327 batting average, .843 OPS, and 137 OPS+, and you have four excellent stats. He would cost one top 100 guy and maybe some young prospects with upside I’ve never heard of. This guy would be a huge difference-maker, though, and Cub fans would love the excitement he’d bring to Wrigley. The Cubs would also benefit from the upgrade offensively and on the basepaths, not to mention his utility around the diamond on defense. View full article

Yes, I have been that guy. I've railed against the Darvish Dump. Rizzo, KB, and Javy on the same day? Criminal. Kyle Schwarber should be the DH. Why on earth did the Cubs not spend, then waste a seven year contract on a declining SS? Prospects, bah! I've also seen the sensible spending at a high level, appreciated the starting pitching and prospect capital that exists, and the defensive prowess the Cubs have assembled Do you get the picture? This is social media in a nutshell. Cub fandom has really become polarized about Jed Hoyer and his regime. Much like everything else in life, it seems like polarization and side taking is dividing Cub fans right down the middle. Not healthy, this. Let's look at a few controversial topics from the old Tweeter machine, Discord, Facebook groups, places like that and really look at what's going on in these situations. SPENDING Optimist: Look, the Cubs have a top 10 payroll, what do you want? Ricketts has proven himself in the past and will certainly spend when the time is right. Pessimist: When will the right time be? Why did he lock in a guy like Swanson (as has been covered well on this site)? How will we ever get a star bat in this lineup if Jed and the Ricketts won't spend? Reasonable: First of all, the cheap narrative is insulting to the 15 or so fanbases that are truly cheap. The Brewers, Marlins, Rockies, Twins, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, and several others would love to have this payroll. So cheap isn't really the word I would throw out here. It is reasonable to question some of the longer term deals. Jameson Taillon hasn't been steady which he was brought to do. Dansby Swanson's struggles don't need to be brought up again. Everyone remembers the Tre Mancini, Tucker Barnhardt, and Drew Smyly contracts that haven't paid off. To this writer, he's just done a questionable job of spending the money. If you count Kyle Hendricks, there's close to 30 million dollars in dead money, money which could have been spent on relief pitching or used to bring in a high level bat. Comments from the front office don't lead to optimism that a big spending increase is coming either. They want to sit below the luxury tax. They have said this, even said it out loud that their natural state is right at but below the tax. So if that's cheap, it's fair game. Summary: The Cubs aren't going to be huge spenders, but really can't be called cheap. More like, it's time to question how the budget was spent. PROSPECTS AND YOUNG PLAYERS Optimist: You have to give the guys a long runway and time to make adjustments. Baseball fans have to be patient, and I hate what this fanbase has become. Prospects even in the minors have organizational value. This is Jed's league! Pessimist: Still waiting for Christopher Morel to be a good player. Michael Busch is hitting .202 since May. Ben Brown won't be healthy. Where is this wave of prospects coming? Like, why is David Bote on the MLB team, shouldn't there be a prospect from our top rated farm system to come up instead? Reasonable: This depends on what you think the Cubs are doing this season. If it's supposed to be contention, then the moves should reflect that. If it's primarily development, by all means Morel should continue hitting cleanup, Busch and PCA should be hitting against lefties, and the kids should fill in the bullpen as needed. The question to me is the value extracted from the prospects. I said earlier, there aren't going to be 5 outfield spots for the prospects to play. What's going to be the plan with these guys? What happens if a top 100 guy busts? Then do you have to extend Happ again? It's just all so unknown. Nobody can win this argument. Summary: They're both right. Prospects to break out sometimes. They also don't. Right now I think the movie is in the middle and we can't judge the ending yet because we simply don't know what's going to happen. My advice is to dive into the prospects if that interests you; there's a ton of interesting guys in the minors. If it doesn't, don't get involved in discussion with prospect guys. They have their babies and love to hug their prospects and will tell you they won't watch the Cubs if James Triantos is dealt. So there you have it. There are many, many, many arguments that can be had, and will be had, on social media. This is just one writer's take on a couple of them. Go Cubs, and have a great day.