I’m not arguing how fWAR values them. My argument is how the trade market values them, which I think is much further away than you make it seem.
As you said, team's value what Tucker does more in free agency, I believe this extends to trade value as well.
Why shouldn't it?
A career wRC+ of 138 vs 103 is bit of an offensive difference, and I don’t know that Nico’s glove is making that up. (I’d be tempted to bet the under for Nico’s next contract total eclipsing Tucker’s single year, but I digress.)
I’d be outright flabbergasted were Jed to finagle a top 10 positional starting player with 3 years of service time, a team’s last year’s 1st round pick (#58 overall prospect) and a reclamation relief project with a wicked slider for a single year of Nico.
Should they ask for that? Sure! Why not?
But, if this is the bar for a single year of Nico, I fear plenty will be disappointed in the return, but how I’d love to be proved wrong.
Horwitz? The guy who was rated as the 22nd best prospect in the Blue Jay's system in ’24, the #9 1b prospect in MLB? I’ll disagree he's the same as Busch who was a top-50 prospect in baseball (#44) when traded.
And I believe the original argument was about Nico being equal to Tucker in trade value, which I still believe is crazy, and you’ve kinda made my point.
With some loose math on your player evaluations, and with some doubts benefitted, I belive you’re saying Michael Busch, 26 when traded, would be worth Cam Smith, 3 years of a top 10 MLB 3b in Pareides and the dream of Wesneski’s slider?
I don’t agree with that math.
Further, Swanson’s 7/177 doesn’t touch a single contract I mentioned, and is nearly less than half of some. Schwarber 5/162 is making more per season and doesn’t not even take the field.
Didn’t Dansby also sign the least significant deal in his FA class? Of the 4 SS available that offseason, Dansby, the defensive guy, signed for significantly less than his peers: Turner, Boegarts and Correa? (I’m not arguing how they turned out so far, nor anything else, just stating how they were valued on the open market, all together.)
My argument isn’t that defense isn’t valuable, nor that I don’t value the D. Nor that players aren’t paid for their defense, base running, leadership etc.
I just believe the market has, and will continue to value bats more than gloves, not that gloves are worthless.
How many defensive players have signed a contract for more than $200? Aside from Dansby, how many over 150? (Maybe Heyward fits this, but nevermind him.)
Now, tell me how many bats have signed contracts for more than $200? $300? and more?
(How many by AJ Preller alone?)
I just don’t see how Nico commands near the same return as Tucker, but I’ve been wrong before.