Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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I think this FO puts a very low priority on relievers even as prospects, and I get the logic on that compared to every other position, but we've also been paying the price for that. They trade or waive them like candy. As it stands we only have 1 seemingly effective above-average reliever and possibly 2 if Merryweather is back and effective which are both question marks. We probably have 1 or 2 effective SP who can also go to the pen. Brown is a late-inning guy if needed but could be our best #5 SP option. You can fill the bottom half of a pen with JAGs no problem but we still need to figure out the 8th inning and have some depth in case of inevitable injuries. You're right that building a pen in FA isn't the best strategy, you end up overpaying a lot for guys who are genuinely good. And guys like Fulmer, Boxberger were just average relievers when signed, basically JAGs not really worth investing millions on. Neris was a slightly above-average reliever at best and well into age-regression years, no idea why they signed him to that deal unless they thought a career year at age 34 was legit even though the xFIP was pedestrian.
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These guys are up for arbitration, plus Alzolay (who will def get non-tendered), any of them could get non-tendered: Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3M Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
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Besides Hodge the pen is filled with JAGs. Merryweather hopefully comes back strong but hard to say, can we count on that? Between Brown and Assad, whoever isn't starting should help i agree. No idea how effective or not Wicks is as a pitcher. I'm not assuming he's above average. Horton is creeping down the road to Brennen Davis territory so the Cubs can't count on him to help. Lopez, Tyson Miller, Roberts etc are JAGs. Wesneski is who he is. I don't think our pen is particularly good and the depth isn't very good. Would be nice to have 3 guys in the late innings to count on and build around that. Probably isn't happening though this offseason. Besides Hodge our record developing relief prospects is terrible, or we ship them to other teams
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On the other hand, fielding tool trades by FG and MLB.com etc are notoriously inaccurate sometimes. We don't really know how Busch throws from seeing him at 1B but his hands are solid and his reactions are too. Might have below-average range after the first step or 2 though at 2B. If he could make the throws he'd probably be solid at 3B given his ability to react and catch hard-hit balls at 1B. Don't see him moving off 1B though, especially with Shaw and Triantos around plus Nico.
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Can't they just trade Bellinger if he comes back? Might have to eat a few million but shouldn't be a barrier. Doubt they trade him though unless they landed another big OF contract, which I also have some doubts. I don't mind Suzuki at DH though
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Well if you're going to ask me nicely like that how can I say no!
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The xERA and xFIP are around the same. He doesn't get credit for throwing innings he didn't throw.
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Vlad is going to want FA money on any extension. I don't think he extends with anyone, i think he waits for FA. The likelihood we trade for Vlad or Tucker is very low IMO. Last offseason everyone talked about Ohtani and Alonso the whole winter. Now it's Soto and Vlad. Makes a lot more sense to talk about the players we have far more likelihood of landing.
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I'd definitely want Soto over Vlad longterm. Vlad has always struggled with weight issues and that's in his early 20s, those guys tend to break down. On a longterm deal he'll get the incentive to keep the weight down is significantly less. Unless they put in a fat clause lol
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I think Shaw should sit in AAA until Paredes/Dansby/Nico get injured. Then they could look to trade one of them next winter and insert Shaw. There's no sure bets for prospects but Shaw has the profile to succeed.
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I don't think they trade for a Vlad or Tucker. A Crochet type is much more likely. They didn't trade for Alonso with 1 year left either, seems like a bit of a waste of prospects for just a year at high arb salary. Doubtful Vlad extends, he's one year out and probably wants to test FA. Didn't sign an extension with the Jays.
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Schmidt is ok. Seems maybe slightly above average. Like a Taillon type. They could acquire someone like that in FA without much difficulty, they seem to do it every year. Probably wouldn't take one of our top 5 prospects.
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I said ideally. In terms of payroll of course it matters, unless you're working with a blank cheque, which we never have been.
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Exactly. If the choice is putting in an opt out after 1 year or 2 years or 4 years or not getting Soto then you give him the opt-out. I don't want a 35 year old Soto making top salary anyways. The Cubs ideally don't want any high-salary position player older than 32-33 because why would they? Not to mention when he's older he'll very likely be a DH. In fact if the Cubs or most any team could choose the years they'd probably sign Soto through age 30 or so, maybe 32 max. Worst-case scenario is you get all that salary back to spend on another star player in the prime.
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I don't see why Soto would want an opt-out. It doesn't hurt but he's not going to e.g. take less money overall so he can have an opt-out. He'll never be in a better situation going into FA and opting out in 5 years to possibly get a bit more money is more like splitting hairs.
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To be fair Cody is making a higher AAV in exchange for fewer guaranteed years so we didn't have to sign him for 6 years or whatever with the risk that 2023 was a total fluke and he went back to being a 1 WAR player.
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With Bellinger I think Jed said the Cubs knew that if Cody played well he could opt out and said he played well this year so he could opt out but they don't know. I think he likely does opt out. Players usually go for the higher guaranteed money over the higher AAV, but not always. We'll see I guess. If Cody can get something like 5/110 he'll opt out, and I think he can get that.
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Counsell may have just not seen eye to eye with these coaches philosophically. He inherited Napoli. Or maybe the coaches themselves wanted a change. We don't know, it doesn't matter.
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Interesting from the presser was Jed mentioning how Wrigley was a tough place to hit this year and suppressed their offensive numbers. But that would also mean our pitchers got a boost. Cubs were 4th in runs scored on the road, 26th at home. Were 2nd in home ERA and 23rd in road ERA.
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Exactly. Jed said they haven't even started looking at the offseason yet because the season just ended, so he couldn't answer questions about their offseason plans because they don't have any yet. He said that's what they'll be doing in Oct. This was an end-of-season presser meant to talk about the season in summary. The Cubs have lots of assets, good contracts, literally no dead money on the books, a healthy farm system etc. What else is he going to say besides pointing that out?
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Well the good thing is they have about 35m coming off the books that was more or less dead money this year. 35m can buy around 5 WAR or whatnot in upgrades. If they spend it wisely they could be over 85 wins based on that alone. We know they'll get more wins out of 3B next season, and almost certainly catcher as well (can't do any worse). Literally anyone can pitch better than Hendricks did. I anticipate better seasons from PCA and Bellinger and hopefully Brown/Wicks also. I want them to stop spending several million AAV on replacement players. They do it every winter. They'll need another SP so they should either spend real money or assets on a quality SP or find another project off the scrapheap. Same with catcher and the pen.
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Well the point is the Cubs have lots of assets and a ton of options. As long as they keep one of Nico/Dansby to play SS the Cubs could literally trade any of our vets and have a suitable prospect replacement ready within the next year if not today. I doubt any vet gets traded this winter but within the next year we know either some vets or prospects will likely get traded. For me Canario, Triantos, and Ballesteros (if he can't catch) seem like the odd men out but also may not bring a ton in trade, they could be saved for a deadline trade or as Iowa depth. I'd be very hesitant to trade Alcantara, he has the power/speed combo, he could be a beast. A poor man's Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz. I like Caissie too. Seems like he'll whiff a ton but he has the sweet swing & approach to make adjustments and work all fields, unlike a Morel or Canario.
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Hope so. There isn't much out there in FA at catcher it looks like. Will be a really tough position for Jed to figure out. I'd be happy with a league average catching combo that can handle pitchers.
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I actually don't think the way the WAR breaks down matters much. At the end of the day the Cubs spending is inefficient. We're not getting enough WAR per million spent. The team needs more surplus or needs to spend more if they're ever going to be a 90+ win team. Players like Baez, Bryant, Russell, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Rizzo etc gave us a ton of surplus and we're nowhere close to that yet. We may have almost twice the payroll as the Brewers but if we spend 3-4x on players of the same WAR it's moot. If players like Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Horton, Brown etc can perform well we can afford to trade more expensive guys like Happ, Bellinger, Nico or Swanson, etc and sign upgrades elsewhere while reloading our farm to reload the surplus years down the road. Rinse and repeat. The other option would be to trade some of those prospects mentioned for mlb-ready prospects at positions we need, like we did with Busch. I don't think trading 3 top prospects for 1 very good mlb player with 3 years left until FA and entering arbitration years is going to be enough. Maybe to get us into the playoffs but we should aim higher
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We probably need to acquire a quality bat, a quality SP, and figure out how to build a pen not filled with JAGs who suck the first 3 months. Anyone with a set of eyes can tell the talent difference between someone like Hodge and guys like Michael Fulmer, Jose Cuas etc
