Stratos

Guys like Encarnacion are the exception, not the typical case. You don't make decisions based on exceptions and wishful thinking, you make them based on the data of what is most likely to occur. The point is even great position players typically decline after age 32, and many times steeply. Any GM would be a fool to want to pay a position player past age 32 at salaries based on their performance in their late 20's.. Sometimes you do have to pay a very good player past their early 30's in order to sign them, but I guarantee you Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter. Hoyer signed Happ and Suzuki through their prime years and these are good contracts. Contracts like Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Judge etc are bad contracts and usually end up a big money pit for teams.

I didn't want Correa last year, or anyone on a 10 year deal, and I still don't. I agree that Bellinger's injury and poor last few seasons before 2023 are worrisome, I'm always skeptical of an unusually good season before FA, and he seemed to get pretty lucky this year on base hits falling in, I expect the career-high BABIP and AVG to go down maybe to around .270-.280, but he's still a good player and a great athlete with 5 tools who can play multiple positions where we have holes.

After 2024, the Cubs should have more payroll room for the offense to make a splash because we could see more young guys coming up and taking starting spots in the rotation and hopefully on the position side. If we assume Stroman and Hendricks are back for 2024, in 2025 those type of expensive arms may not be needed as they may be replaced with guys like Horton, Brown, and Wicks (with Taillon and Steele) if all goes well. On the position side, if even 3 out of PCA, Shaw, Morel, Caissie, Mervis, McGeary, can be regulars in 2025+ you get some more surplus and payroll room as well. If e.g. PCA can hold down CF, Morel or Shaw at 3B, and one of Mervis/McGeary/Caissie/Canario etc at 1B or DH then they should have payroll room for a big FA signing after 2024 like Soto, who would probably DH. You should still have room for Bellinger. Stroman, Hendricks, Mancini, Bote, Smyly off the books after next season is a savings of about 58 million to spend next off season, though I think Steele's arbitration should eat a bit of that. But most other guys are either locked into contract or pre-arb.

Adam Dunn? His career was dunn after age 32. Richie Sexson's production was done after age 31. Ryan Howard done after 31. You really can't count on any player being good after age 32. I'd stay away from Alonso. At least Bellinger has 2 years on him, he probably has 4-5 prime years left. Sign him to a Swanson-like deal, maybe a little less? 6/160?

Using Sportac's luxury tax payroll calculations, they are at 153m payroll which includes committed money + arb and pre-arb player estimates, dead money, benefits, minor league 40-man salaries etc. That doesn't include Stroman, Gomes, Hendricks coming back. So they're at 84 million in space. Add Stroman and Gomes, plus Hendricks at 12m and they're at 42.4m. They spent about 7m on Fulmer/Boxberger this year so let's assume they acquire another 2 veteran pen arms for the same in 2024, so we're at about 34.5. Consider they'll keep at least 5 million in space under the cap and they're at 29.5m in payroll spending left, which would be just enough for Bellinger, or Hoskins + Bader + around 4-5 million left for an upgrade somewhere else like the pen.

Here's my 2024 payroll commitment breakdown for luxury tax purposes. 148 million: guaranteed contracts (assuming Gomes and Stroman come back, and Hendricks re-signs for 12m (10.5m salary + 1.5m buyout) 10m in arbitration salaries (Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather) 2m for Steele + Wicks/Assad 3m for pre-arb bench bats (e.g. Amaya, Morel, Tauchman) 3m for pre-arb pen arms (e.g. Hughes, Thompson, Wesneski) 15m = dead weight (Barnhart, Mancini, Bote) 3m in minor league 40-man salaries 17m in player benefits TOTAL PAYROLL = 201 million 2024 luxury tax cap = 237 million So there's about an estimated 36 million in payroll they still have under the cap to use to add players, keeping in mind they like to keep at least 5 million under the cap for in-season flexibility. That would be about enough to sign an impact player like Bellinger (26m AAV over 6 years?) plus a couple of quality FA veteran pen arms. The team comes back essentially unchanged but (hopefully) a deeper pen for late-innings, unless they also make a trade. If no Bellinger then they have to replace his bat in the lineup and find a solution for CF and 1B.

Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger. I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice. Bellinger should be a priority. At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA. I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think. Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal. We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.

Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger. I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice. Bellinger should be a priority. At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA. I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think. Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal. We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.

Actually if this team had a solid bullpen the whole year they could have been pushing 90 wins this season. We gave up a lot of wins in April, May, and Sept because of the pen. Our pythagorean W/L was 90-72. We had the 3rd best offense in the NL behind Dodgers and Braves.

We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH and others like Canario and Morel at DH after Shaw comes up to play 3B do we really have room for Bellinger longterm? He'd fit well in 2024, they could play Morel at 3B and DH Mervis/Canario so there's lots of room at CF/1B for Bellinger in 2024, but in 2025/26 years somebody will probably need to be moved. Happ is signed through the 2026 season. I love Happ as a competitor and leader but we need more SLG/HR on this team, and his SLG was .431 for a LF and not much better last year with an inflated AVG/BABIP. Depending on how things go with PCA/Mervis, I wouldn't mind PCA spending another year in AAA and going with Bellinger in CF in 2024, and giving Mervis a longer shot at 1B in 2024 with Bellinger as a backup and/or Wisdom able to play 1B against LHP. Then they can think about maybe trading Happ in 2025 or 2026, and putting Bellinger in a corner OF spot. Happ can stay if Mervis or PCA flames out and McGeary is only a DH.

PCA is not ready for prime-time, his decision-making is terrible, still a low baseball IQ he clearly needs to develop. He needs a year in AAA. They likely won't re-sign Belli but they need a stopgap. PCA can learn on the job in MLB I guess but it's not going to be pretty, seems like a waste.

He'll be rehabbing TJS with Alzolay and Leiter.

The one that whiffs on routine flyballs? Jk

The problem is it's not going to be ok if the roster sucks and the guys sitting in the pen every game can't hold leads, That doesn't change no matter how the Marlins play the rest of the way. The team is built on a house of cards and that's the way the year has went.

Palencia, Cuas, Smyly, Thompson, Wesneski etc all suck. Our situation at 3B sucks. Not much a manager can do if they have no choice but to play turds. He's not a great manager, but he's not bad.

The season is essentially over, the bullpen is toast. Even if they squeak into the playoffs as a 3rd wildcard team this pen can't hold up throughout October. This season is a repeat of 1998, shades of Rod Beck running on fumes in late Sept & Oct, Brant Brown dropping the routine flyball, and Kerry Wood being overused and abused in a playoff hunt. The Cubs' only chance is for the team to suddenly catch fire (luck) or Alzolay needs to come back 100% and Leiter become Leiter again. I'd find it more likely they both have to go under the knife within the next 6 months. Good run, the guys played their butts off, the front office didn't give them all the tools they needed. Can't blame Ross either. Most of us thought Barnhart, Mancini, and Smyly were overpaid bad signings the moment they signed and we were proven right. They could have built a deep pen with a couple of reliable relievers using Mancini's salary alone. Sidenote: Heyward has a 127 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR this year. Maybe he'll get another ring this year. Great job Cubs.

Well the Marlins are about half as bad 🙂

I don't have an issue with PH for PCA there for Wisdom. PCA hasn't been hitting RHP, he's not going to hit well vs LHP. Wisdom mashes LHP and meh velocity guys like Brad Hand. IMO David Ross and Jed Hoyer lost them this game, along with Suzuki obviously. Justin Steele only threw 119 IP last year, and even fewer the year before. He's at 173 IP right, he's in the red zone for injury and fatigue right now. When he gave up the HR to the 9th hitter Pillar and then left a pitch in the middle of the plate on the next batter and then the walk he was clearly done, he should have been yanked, he was gassed. 2003 and Alzolay hurt right now shows why you don't grind pitchers into the ground just because you're in a playoff hunt, the injuries aren't worth it. Hoyer didn't get us the pen arms we needed at the deadline, not to mention in the offseason, end of story. Having a ton of good tradeable assets sitting in the minors right now while watching the MLB staff fall apart before our eyes due to a lack of quality pen depth is INEXCUSABLE. If they built a good pen in the offseason we'd be winning this division. Ross stayed with Steele because the pen is struggling outside a few guys they can't keep throwing out there every night. Having Smyly pitching with a 1-run lead in the 8th against one of the best HR teams in MLB history because Leiter's arm is falling off is not good. Throw in a terrible bunt by Mastrobuoni and some other head-scratchers and that was a bad, bad game. Suzuki's whiff was a bad Brant Brown 1998 flashback and turning Steele into the next Mark Prior is mind-numbingly stupid.

The games all count. We could do this all day and cherrypick for any team.

Well hopefully they play well vs the Marlins.

They have a -95 run differential. That's bad.

Miami has an easy schedule rest of the way (Mets, Pirates). Ours is brutal (Braves, Brewers). Dbacks get WSox and Astros. Cubs need a sweep tomorrow badly. Pretty sure we'd lose any tiebreakers.

Assad has been huge in the 2nd half. He really helps out the pen.

I agree with the OP that the regulars have needed more rest. The players went pretty hard in July/Aug. Summer heat must be hard to play ball in every day. I won't blame the players for the Sept dip, they've played their butts off. Every manager does things we don't agree with now and then but I think Ross has done a decent job. His lineups have been pretty good, running game has been good. Hard to blame the guy for wanting to stick with the players who brought the Cubs to where they are. It's easy to overly micromanage the lineup and change what has been clicking when some guys get in a slump.

The primary reason this team doesn't have more wins and have undershot their pythagorean W/L record is that the bullpen doesn't have enough quality depth for the late-innings, and this has been the case since the 1st day of Spring Training and I even pointed this out then. That's all on Hoyer. He's been overconfident in the coaching staff's ability to turn pitching turds into gold, including with the Taillon signing also. At some point you have to acquire talent. Injuries are inevitable in a bullpen, guys will underperform and overperform. They went into Spring Training with Fulmer and Boxberger as their biggest reliever acquisitions. At the deadline they again failed to add more quality relief depth. Cuas wasn't enough. That meant they had to ride their only 3 good arms hard in July/Aug/Sept and into Oct. Alzolay has had arm injury history and he has paid for the price for the high usage. Leiter was also gassed for a while likely due to overuse. I don't blame Ross. PCA and Canario are AAA nobodies at this early point in their careers. there's no reason to rely on them in a playoff hunt. Canario had a big game vs a terrible Pirates pitching staff, he hit a grand slam while Cubs were winning by a lot late in the game and the Pirates worst pitchers were in the game at that point. That's not that impressive, and you should never expect rookies to be saviours.