Stratos

If Soto is on the team, how is the team not better with Morel on it? They can give him playing time at 3B, he can play SS or 2B if there's an injury, he can play OF if there's an injury. Good hitters on the MLB roster who make league minimum are also a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging.

You're removing some talent and adding better talent. You net gain talent yes, but not as much compared to if you traded Soto for minor leaguers who won't contribute next year. Morel was our 3rd best hitter and makes no money so has surplus. As a 1 year strategy it just doesn't make much sense to trade Morel when we can just as easily be trading prospects. The Cubs need to decide if they're trying to win in 2024 or 2026.

See my recent reply to Transmogrified Tiger. In short, we can't just use those run totals, you have to adjust run value for defensive position a player plays. A DH is worth -17.5 runs, a LF or RF is worth -7.5 runs. Soto will mostly DH for us. fWAR already adjusts value for position played. 2024 projections were my own, you're right they aren't out yet. Projecting Morel for around 2.5 fWAR (if he plays a full season) and Soto for about 5.5 WAR seems pretty fair. and accurate. For record, I'm worried about Bellinger going forward because his expected BA and SLG stats are greatly below what he put up in 2023....everything he hit seemed to find a hole, so I think luck was a factor. His 2023 xSLG is shockingly around .430, which is around 100 points below what he put up. Anyways, see my reply to Tiger, I'm not against a Soto trade even on 1-year, but we shouldn't be removing talent from the MLB roster on a win-now move, we should be taking it from prospects in the minors who won't contribute in 2024. Morel was the 3rd best hitter (wRC+) on the team last year, and will probably continue to improve, his wRC+ went up 10 points from last year.

See my reply to Transmogrified Tiger.

The # of good defenders on the team already is not relevant, nor the number with "well-rounded profiles". What matters is the total value of all the players on the team in terms of creating and preventing runs. Soto is a 5-6 WAR player, his value is 5-6 wins above a replacement player, it doesn't really matter how it breaks down. If he DH'ing for the Cubs, which he will most of the time, his value/WAR drops because it's easier to replace a DH than any other position. According to fangraphs, a LF (or RF) is penalized -7.5 runs in value, and a DH is worth -17.5 runs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/explaining-win-values-part-three/ The issue with the Cubs isn't spending and payroll, they spent enough last year to win and will again this year, their issue in 2023 was efficiency. They desperately need more surplus and efficiency. They clearly overspent on Mancini and Smyly who were terrible, Barnhart also, Fulmer/Boxberger plus Rowan Wick/Adrian Sampson were busts, Taillon underperformed pretty badly in his first year, Rios and Hosmer were crap, Stroman arguably under-performed, and Heyward and Bote provided nothing for the millions they made. That's almost half the payroll in either under-performance or total waste. They got surplus from Nico, Steele, Happ, Bellinger, plus a few pen guys and less significant players (Assad, Morel, Tauchman etc), but the pen was useless at holding leads half the year because they didn't spent enough on late-inning depth. The difference between 2016 and 2023 wasn't payroll, it was efficiency and surplus. The whole point of being a GM is squeezing as many wins out of every million spent as possible. I'm not at all against a Soto trade, even on a 1-year, but trading our DH (who can also play middle INF and potentially 3B) who was 3rd on the team in wRC+ last year for a much better DH plus the cost of 33m is not the impact move I think some people think it is. Soto at 33m arguably still has some surplus, it's a good acquisition. But Soto on a 1-year is a win-now move so we need as much MLB talent and surplus as possible in 2024, so as i've said they should trade a prospect that won't contribute in 2024, like Triantos or Arias, or Rojas etc., not trading away our 3rd best hitter (#2 now that Bellinger is FA) who makes league minimum.

Soto is indeed an incredible hitter. But what matters at the end of the day is what total value he adds to a team. How many runs/wins he adds. He's worth 5-6 WAR, it doesn't matter how he gets to 5-6 WAR. We can't just admire his amazing hitting and ignore the fielding and baserunning, which are bad and eat a portion of the value he adds with the bat. He could be a good hitter + a great fielder, or an average hitter + a great fielder + great baserunner and add the same total value to the team. The breakdown is irrelevant, what matters is the total value he produces as a player. Silver Slugger and Home Run derby awards and batting titles are fun but they aren't a part of the math equation for teams winning games. Take 30 hits away from Soto so he loses the batting title and Silver Slugger and give those 30 hits to Happ and it doesn't really make any difference to value added/subtracted to the team. 30 hits are 30 hits.

I think if the Cubs want to get better for 2024 they need to trade prospects and especially ones that aren't going to make much or any impact on the Cubs in 2024. In a Morel for Soto swap you're adding Soto but removing Morel who will already contribute on the MLB roster in 2024, while also eating 33m in spending space. Morel's 2.5 WAR (or whatever) is gone, and you add Soto's 5-6 WAR and remove 33m of payroll to spend in FA. We just paid 33m + 5 more years of Morel to add an extra 3 WAR to the team in 2024. I just can't see how the math make sense if we only have Soto for 2024. Any GM can easily use that 33m to add 3 WAR in FA and keep Morel. Heck you can do it for 23m, and have 10m more to improve the team plus keep Morel. You could sign Candelario, you could sign one of the quality SP that are going to be FA this year. I agree with you that Soto being an all-star/superstar doesn't factor into the math at all, except he may sell some jerseys, which is going into Ricketts' pocket anyways.

Soto is a bad fielder, he's a DH, we can't just throw that out, plus the fact that he's a poor baserunner. I'm going by projected WAR for 2024. Bellinger's WAR was muted this year because he played so much 1B, but yes has a good chance to regress at least a bit offensively. Morel played mostly only DH also, and didn't play a full season on the Cubs anyways and will get more than 429 PA, and has potential to get better offensively and defensively. If he can play just average defense and learn to not whiff on every non-fastball on the outer-half because he's trying to pull every ball he sees then he can be an all-star. Bellinger adds a lot of value given he can play 2 positions fairly well where we have holes next year: CF and 1B. Bellinger is of course only one example. You're basically trading Morel + 33m for Soto. That 33m could go towards Yamamoto + a good reliever, or towards an Ohtani contract, or to Candalario + Mitch Garver, or whatever. DH isn't a big priority since anyone in the org can fill that (Mervis? Canario? Morel? Rotate regulars to give rest?), but they need a 3B, CF, 1B, SP, RP etc, and if you acquire Soto you're basically taking 2 or 3 good options at those positions off the roster to have a great hitter at the least valuable position that anyone who can hit can fill adequately. If Soto and Morel made the same salary next year you make that trade in a heartbeat, but Soto making 33m and the fact Morel makes the minimum is a major factor. Soto doesn't have a ton of surplus.

Morel + Bellinger + cash > 1 year of Soto? I think the Cubs might be a better team with Morel and then used that 33m to sign e.g. Bellinger + money left over for another upgrade than with Soto. Bellinger + Morel probably nets you the same WAR in 2024 but is cheaper and you'd have both for several years to come. I probably wouldn't trade for Soto anyways unless there was an extension.

The key with Soto for me is that I just don't believe he will ever sign an extension. He seems 100% intent on testing free agency. If we were all him, just 1 year out from FA, i think we'd all do the same as well. It's the best business decision. If the Cubs still want to give up good prospects for only 1 year of Soto then they have to go out and spend to add more talent to make it worth it. It just doesn't seem like a Cubs kind of play. They didn't even jump on Sean Murphy last year, who was a great fit. I think Yamamoto is the most likely for us between Soto, Ohanti, and him.

Well every MLB organization disagrees with you. You can name all of the exceptions you want, that doesn't make it a trend. I can name a whole bunch of people who smoked liked a chimney their whole life and never got cancer, it doesn't mean smoking doesn't cause cancer. Zambrano peaked at age 23 in 2004 and got progressively worse year after year after that, and was toast by age 30. Some guys have arms that can put up with punishment, a lot of guys don't, and you'll never who which is which.

Maybe. They were also like 10-15 years older with a lot of strength build up over many years. I saw similarities with Dusty Baker's usage and how the Cubs used Steele and Alzolay etc this season. When you're in the hunt to make the playoffs it's hard to let the foot off the gas when you're thirsty for wins and guys are pitching great with no great alertantives. I hope the Cubs don't pay for it next year.

Dusty is a good guy, a stubborn ill-informed fool at times who destroyed our young arms, but a good man, I wish him the best.

I think he would for the right player. Swanson got 177m and he was going to be 29 y/o. If a good player is 25 years old signing them to a 8-10 year deal isn't super risky, not like the Turner/Judge etc contracts last year. The fact that Yamamoto hasn't played in the MLB and is a pitcher is the risky part. But Ohtani was a risk too.

1. I don't really think they wanted a SP who threw 138 IP both seasons, got injured twice, and had ERA's that were above average but not not near the TORP-type ERA's he put up in the previous 2 seasons before he signed. They wanted the guy from 2019-2021. I really don't think there's much debate that his time with us has been a bit disappointing. 2. I like Yamamoto but i'm not one of the big cheerleaders here., I agree he comes with risk due to never pitching here. But he'll still do well in the MLB I would wager and probably is a TORP, maybe around a 3.00 ERA, or high 2's ERA? I was just making a statement. Whether we get Yamamoto or not, Stroman opting out would be good for the Cubs, but not at all terrible if he opts in.

That would be a legit reason to move him I guess, to make payroll space. We probably have to eat a bit of salary. He'll make 21m next season. What's he worth, 15m? So eat 6? Unless we also send prospects?

Congrats to the winners!

He can still be good next year, it's not the worst thing if he opts-in, but the health is a little concerning. If he's only going to pitch 137 IP I'd rather have Yamamota I wouldn't seek to trade Stroman this offseason though, i'm not selling low on him.

We didn't get value for the money, that's all i'm saying. I like him as a pitcher, we shouldn't regret the signing because it was a good one, he's just been hurt. A 2.7 WAR SP isn't worth 23.7m, and neither is a 2.0 WAR SP. To be fair, we did give him a little more AAV so we didn't have to sign him for the next 3 seasons. We still didn't get what we wanted out of him. Also, i'm not burying Hoyer at all, i'm not criticizing the decision because hindsight is 20/20, i'm expressing the disappointment. I like Hoyer, minus some other nitpicks.

Phillies fans literally boo everything they don't like. Dbacks win and so Phily fans boo, no reason for it LOL.

Imagine the Dbacks getting into the WS on a 84-win season....trailing the Cubs in the Wildcard race at the beginning of Sept weren't they? Sigh.....

Stroman has been a disappointing signing. 138/136 IP in 2022/2023, only worth 2.0 and 2.7 WAR in those years. Paying around 24 million AAV for a sub-3 WAR player is not good value. I hope he opts out. In 2021 the Mets let him throw 179 IP after not pitching a single inning in 2020. Significant injury risk from doing that, but the Mets didn't care, he was a FA.

If you had to choose, in 2024 would you guys rather go Bellinger CF/Mervis 1B or Tauchman-PCA CF/Alonso 1B (minus prospects traded for Alsono, likely including Mervis). Assuming Alonso signs an extension.

Mervis and Hoskins have definite upside potential, which for a team being squeezed in budget under the CBT line and already only borderline playoff contenders they may need some high upside risks to payoff to succeed, like Bellinger in 2023. The problem is yeah they're both risky, Hoskins with the year missed, 2 years older since his last opening day, and a major injury that could affect hitting, defense, and running. Might depend on what Hoskins wants. Conforto got 2/36 from the Giants last year, but he was once a 4-5 win player. Hoskins is a 2.5 WAR guy at best. I'm thinking maybe 1 yr, 12m. Or 2/24 with player opt-out?

Polanco seems pretty good. Little worried about his 3 different injuries last year, but they could get him at a bit of a discount because of that too. We need a 3B, whether its Morel or whomever (who i'd like to give a chance to, we need as many HR in the lineup), but we don't really need anyone to play 2B. We have Morel and Madrigal to backup Nico, and Shaw/Luis Vazquez in a pinch. At SS we have Nico and Morel to backup Swanson, plus Madrigal or Shaw/Vazquez in a pinch. Ideally if we acquired another 3B i'd like him to also be able to play 1B like Candelario did. Basically an upgrade to Wisdom. Polanco has never played 1B as a pro, but he could play some there in ST like how Madrigal learned 3B last year. Or there's someone out there who can play the 1B/3B role.