That’s fair, and I think you’re framing the debate correctly in terms of process over outcome. When I mention bat-missing, I’m less concerned with raw strikeout totals and more with how those strikeouts are generated — specifically whether the velocity and pitch shape combination produces sustainable whiff profiles rather than situational spikes.
On the contact side, I agree that metrics like IFFB can be misleading if they aren’t contextualized with velocity bands and vertical approach angle. Fly-ball suppression alone doesn’t really solve the bullpen volatility issue if hitters aren’t being consistently put into defensive counts. That’s where velo becomes more than just an aesthetic upgrade — it compresses decision time and raises the margin for error.
Injury risk is probably the unavoidable tradeoff here. High-velo arms with splitter-heavy usage almost always carry fragility flags, but that’s where I think the Cubs’ risk tolerance comes into play. If they’re treating this as a variance-management move rather than a durability bet, the calculus shifts. You accept elevated injury probability in exchange for short-term stabilization and matchup leverage.
The Carter comparison is interesting too. Extremes can work, but they tend to amplify downside if the underlying command wobbles. Someone sitting in that middle ground — not purely reactive, not purely speculative — might actually fit the Cubs’ current window better than people expect.
As for your last question, my background’s more economics-adjacent than baseball-specific, but I’ve always gravitated toward roster construction questions because they sit right at the intersection of risk modeling and constrained resources. Econ/PolSci is a solid combo if you’re interested in that space.