I agree with you here. He consistently has quality ABs and he has natural power. If he can increases his contact rate after an offseason of strength training, I dont think he needs to sell out contact for power to potentially hit the 30 HRs mark this season. Fangraphs had him at 2.3 WAR last year and Baseball Reference had him at 2.8 WAR. We know he had a short adjustment period to 1B defensively but once he settled in he played GG defense or close too GG defense the rest of the way.
If he can up that contact and keep that level of defensive play, I dont think 3.5-4 WAR is out of the realm of possibility, but settling in around 3 WAR would be terrific. Really excited about his potential this season. I have high expectations for him.