thawv
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Everything posted by thawv
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cot's has 61.5 million. What is your source? My starting number was not wrong. I never allowed for injury or deadline money, which brought my number to the low 50's to spend, leaving 8-10 million to spare.
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Just out of curiosity, where did you come up with only 40 million to spend? Is that after this signing? I have 61.5 million before this signing. Maybe keep 8-10 million in their pocket for injury payroll and deadline moves. So I have somewhere in the low 50's to spend.
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I see the exact opposite. Massive offensive upgrade for a small defensive downgrade.
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Today, teams are winning with offense. That's all.
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Ok. I'm bowing out here. I understand what you're saying. Yes, I think he'll be better from the get go than those guys were. Maybe not in the long run, but I think he's an upgrade right now offensively.
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I expect him to struggle early on and settle in fairly quickly and be a very good offensive player. Much better than Nico by June. So, what if there's no injury to an IF'ers? What do you think they should do with Shaw? More minor league pitching? Sit him on the Cubs bench? Try to create an opening for him? How long in AAA? Until 2027 if there's no major injury?
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How can I forget that he had surgery the second week of October? He's not going to be on the roster unless he's a full time player. IMO, he has nothing to prove against minor league pitching, and it won't help his development. I think it will slow it down. Of course if there' an infield injury, Shaw is the guy. Take a look at the playoff teams, and then look at their slugging. Offense over defense all day for me.
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So Nico is a better offensive player than Shaw in your eyes? I disagree.
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A trade today is pretty much out of the question. So no trade. I'm hoping that he's still injured so that Shaw can start in MLB career. It's pretty simple for me. I'd prefer Shaw over Nico. You don't feel that way. I'm not trying to change your mind either.
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Are you implying that Nico is an elite offensive player? He's not. We know what he is offensively, and it's average. Look, if you think that Shaw won't be as good as Nico offensively, then that's your contention. I just don't agree with it. I think that right now, Shaw is an offensive upgrade to Nico, who is and will not be no better than average. I'd like to upgrade from average.
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I'm ready for Shaw to replace Nico. Either Nico as a utility player or a trade. I think Shaw plus the return for Nico is going to be better than Nico with Shaw in AAA.
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This is the most likely scenario. But his healing time is anywhere from Jan 15 ish to April 15 ish. Maybe it's longer? I've seen 3-6 months recovery time, and I've seen 6- 9 months recovery time. I guess we'll see.
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It's also very possible that he's ready and it's not rushing him. Teams take calculated risks to improve the team. They don't run the same slightly above average players out there every year. However, I can most certainly see the Cubs doing that
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I think the team will be a better offense with Shaw over Nico from today on. We'll lose some defense, but we'll gain a ton off offense. I'm fine with putting Nico on the bench as a utility player. But that's never going to happen.
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So if everybody stays healthy, when do you call him up? In 2027 when there's a spot for him? Do you never call a guy up on his merit, or always wait for an injury? Caissie and company are not close to ready. Facing more minor league pitching for Shaw is not going to help his development when he has nothing left to prove.
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Rushing a player is calling him up when he's not close to ready. Shaw can't be any more ready. If he's ready, it's not rushing him. It's the next step, and it should be now instead of waiting for an injury. The rest of the system is not really that close to being ready. Shaw is ready.
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I feel differently. I think that right now, Shaw is the better player than Nico. We have enough glove first guys. We can afford to sacrifice defense for offense right now. I'd look to be making a hard effort to create a spot for Shaw opposed to waiting for an injury. Shaw is also much more advanced and polished of a hitter than PCA is likely every going to be.
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This is exactly what I think. Shaw, Caissie, Alcantara are not targeted for the bench. Canario and Cowles are very much bench players. I want to move on from Nico as soon as possible to free up 650 plate appearances for Shaw. Everything we've read and seen is telling us that he's a much better offensive player than Nico. Having his face more AAA is going to do nothing for him. He needs to grow as a big league player, not a minor league player. He's 5 years remove from HS. It's time.
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Who on the active roster are they going to remove or bench?
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Who are they going to bench or release to call up prospects? Trades maybe?
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Cubs "Probably Out" On Top-End Free Agents
thawv replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
How is this news? This is more confirmation on what we already knew. -
Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger
thawv replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Either way, there's not even a roster spot for Pete. -
Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger
thawv replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You're not wrong about my valuations. But since I've found Spotrac, I find them to be very thorough, and find it interesting how they come to their conclusion. I have no idea how Judge is one of their comps, but his contract threw Alonso MVA way off. I've since started using WAR as a predictive number and how many years I think a guy should get. Without ever seeing Spotrac, I had him a 4/96. EDIT: I just checked out RosterResource, which 1908 told me about, and they have him signing for 5/125. That's much more realistic than Spotrac. This is going to be my new go to FA page. -
Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger
thawv replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
They use age and signed contracts to start. Then I want to say that they use 9 stats and adjust the final number. I personally think it's very high, but I like to check out their MVA on guys that are linked to the Cubs. I personally think 4/96 is about right. But my number is way less involved than Spotrac is. -
Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger
thawv replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I guess we'll see. But there is a market valuation analysis done on all the free agents. And yes, Freeman's contract would suggest that Alonso should not get close to that. I use my starting point as Spotrac's market value analysis and go from there. Spotrac did not use Freeman's contract as one of their 4 comps. My guess is that he was older at the time of his signing. Arenado, Rendon, Judge, and Olson are the 4 comps they used. Then they plug in stats and adjust from there. They come up with 6/174 for Alonso. I know that I would never pay him that if it was my cash.
