so you're saying that group A (jones, pierre, eyre, howry, rusch and marshall) are not only as good as group B (burnitz, corey, remlinger, hawkins, prior and wood), but are SEVEN WINS BETTER? now who's being ridiculous? XZero did a superb job of rating the upgrades, but this is how I'd rate this team in comparison to last year's team. Pierre - Huge upgrade over Patterson Murton - Huge upgrade over LFers from last year Jones - About the same (albeit in different areas) as Burny Lee - Slight regression. He DID fix a hole in his swing, therefore I'm not expecting it to be sifnificant. Aram - About the same as last year, maybe a little better. An entire year of his production should help immmensely. Barrett - Same as last year. Cedeno - I expect an improvement over Neifi, although this is far from certain. For arguments sake I'll say he'll give equal offensive production (which shouldn't be hard to do) 2B - It all depends on who gets the most playing time. However I'd think it would be comparabel to last year's production. On the overall for offensive production, we've got roughly 4 washes, 1 slight regression (more BA than anything else), one slight improvement (give more ARam), and huge two upgrades. More importantly, we FINALLY have guys who are capable of scoring runs for our big boppers. This unit pry won't be in the top 4 in RS in the NL, but they should score considerably more than last year. Thus this year's offensive team should be much improved. I'd expect this lineup to be worth at least an exta 5 wins. Dempster - Might not have quite the season of last year, but I don't think his performance was a fluke. Should be about the same with maybe a slight regression. Eyre - Should be a huge upgrade over last year's performers Howry - Another upgrade over last year. Rest of pen - I think they'll be better as well but I'll be conservative and say a wash. Although the bullpen is often the biggest crapshoot in all of sports, I can't imagine the pen being as bad as it was last year. It looks as though we'll finally have some competent setup men capable of getting the games to Dempster. This should be worth at least 3-4 games (and that's being conservative with all the games they blew for us last year) and possibly more depending on the rest of the pen. Zambrano - I expect a slight improvement over last year. Won't have the uncharcteristic meltdowns he experienced last season. With an improved offesne/bullpen he'll win 20 games. Rusch - I think he'll be competent, but if anyone played out of his mind last year it was him. I expect a moderate regression. Maddux - Supposedly he's in better shape, but I'm not expecting that to have a lot of bearing on his performance. He should be about the same as he was last year. Marshall - I think he'll be better than Mitre and company. But for argument's sake I'll say a wash. Jerome/Guzman - One of these guys will emerge for good and give us what Jerome gave us last year. Assuming Prior and Wood make absolutely ZERO starts this year, I think the staff will at least be pretty comparable to what we got in their absense last year. Prior's loss would be huge, but I don't think Wood's loss would hurt us all that much (I don't think he's pitched all that well since the 2003 playoffs). For now, I'll assume the loss of these two (mainly Prior) will account for an 8 game loss (could be more could be less). Adding up the extra wins/losses, and this year's team would figure to be about a wash with last year's team with Prior and Wood absent (and I'm being conservatively pessimistic). Being estimations aren't perfect, I'll say the margin of error is a +- 4 games, which would put the win total between 75 and 83 wins. Although you may disagree with what I have above I don't think it can be labeled ridiculous. If anything, I think I was fairly conservative. Don't forget that if Miller comes back healthy, and all current reports point towards him being close, he can buffer the loss of Prior or Wood without losing much. Once they're all online, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 55-60+ starts from those three, which isn't far off of what you'd hope for to get out of your #1 and #2 combined. Cedeno at worst is a wash with last year, because if he's doing worse, Dusty will yank him for Neifi, which is what we had last year.