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Lefty

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Everything posted by Lefty

  1. Lefty
    I would add, however, that Murton's stats look a little better than they might because he faces a disproportional number of lefties. Last year Ramirez and Lee faced RHPs about 75% of the time. I think Murton is in the low 60s for his career. Not sure about that though.
  2. Lefty
    Assuming the docs would clear him to play, I'd rather try him next year than Pierre knowing that Pie is in the wings.
  3. Lefty
    Juan should be nowhere near this team next year, if we actually care about a productive lineup. you are right. it would be impossible for a team with pierre leading off to get to the playoffs or world series let alone win them. Don't confuse correlation with causation...please.
  4. Lefty
    I honestly think people who think that are going to be very suprised. After this HORRENDOUS season, it's almost like fate is forcing them to make some big moves. If they do not, there is going to be such a negative light put toward the Cubs and ownership. They will have a "bad name", so to say. It's almost like they have to make a big splash just to make up for this terrible year. I fully expect atleast 1 big signing, and Soraino would be a very good choice, if for 2nd, as said. . That's what I'm afraid of. Hendry will make a big move, but I have no faith that Hendry will make the correct big move.
  5. Lefty
    We all hope that Pie is better than Patterson, and whatever evidence you have to bolster that point is welcome.
  6. Lefty
    Maybe I'm wrong but wasn't Patterson a first half hitter? It just seems to me he struggles in the second half. I'm not sure what your point is? Patterson's numbers are what they are for a full season, however he got there. My hope in Pie's second half this year is that as a 21 year-old he is still improving. Even so, I think we would all settle for Pie's 2008 & 2009 to be as good as Patterson's 2003 & 2004. Assuming he's still with the Cubs of course.
  7. Lefty

    Lefty replied to otis89's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk

    I have read all the Tom House stuff and have the materials in my house. But I still do not always feel that I am "getting it." And I am 40 and have been pitching in local leagues for almost twenty years. Last Winter I had the opportunity to spend a few days with Curt Young and Brian Price, the pitching coaches for the A's and D'backs respectively. And with one on one instruction I was much more able to understand and implement what was being told to me. I agree that refinements and tweaking are often necessary. While I review what I have in the house, I do not feel that is what I need if I have a serious problem. White Sox academy offers a package of 5 half-hour lessons for $250. Will Carroll has mentioned one guy in particular to me as someone who definitely knows his stuff. I trust Will when it comes to pitching. So combining the recommendation of someone I trust with local on site tutoring, that seems like the way to go.
  8. Lefty
    Coming into this year Pie's #1 PECOTA comparable was Corey Patterson through 2000. Pie's season was very similar to Patterson's 2001 at Iowa, though Pie is six months younger than Patterson. Patterson was effective early in '02 until a second half collapse really killed his numbers. Fatigue? Maybe. His 2003-2006 numbers have been pretty consistent except for that horrible final two thirds of the '05 season; @.270/.310/.450. Pie's Major League Equivalent this year was about .250/.300/.400. As a 21 year-old, that's pretty good. Obviously if his 2nd half improvement sticks, we have a pretty good player on our hands. We'll get over it.
  9. Lefty
    Well, with that news, there is no way Hendry picks him up. Hendry is a big believer in chemistry, and would be very reluctant to bring in a "growing cancer" How about Oakland?
  10. Lefty
    It really wouldn't take that much creativity. Resign Aramis, sign a couple decent starting pitchers, convince Florida to trade Aramis for the farm, and you've got a pretty darn good team. I have my doubts that Hendry could pull it off. But I completely disregard the thought that it can't be done. Did you mean Cabrera? And do you trust Hendry from here to there?
  11. Lefty
    Do you really think the bullpen is fine? We have lost a lot of games thanks to the pen this year. Howry has not been as good as advertised. Bullpen is the hardest thing to project. You have six or seven pitchers who couldn't cut it as starters. So your year-to-year performance will be volatile as their IPs are realtively low. I actually think Howry has been OK, but he missed two years with injuries recently. The only reason we expect anything great is because Hendry gave him a huge contract. Hendry is an idiot. Cubs are last in offense, starting pitchers' ERA we are 14th in the NL. It seems the bullpen is the least of our worries.
  12. Lefty
    Third time I've posted this. Restovich's Major League numbers against LHPs is .280/.340/.430. Perfect platoon partner for Jones. This would certainly be better than Jones hitting against lefties, but I wouldn't want those numbers going in for a guy who only is going to hit against left handers. Surely we can find a person for 2007 that can hit one side of the plate better than that. Let's assume that Restovich's MLB stats are his level of talent. A right-handed hitter with those numbers against LHPs would still figure to hit .250 with some power against RHPs. But is that his true level of talent? His minor league numbers indicate he could do better. He never really got regular playing time in the Majors. Statheads loved Josh Willingham, he'd get called up, go 1 for 19, and be labeled a AAAA player. Then he got regular playing time. If you can rake in AAA, you can be productive in the Majors. Restovich is at his peak age right now. I am not advocating dumping Jones to give him the RF job. But as a bench player who will get 200 ABs and make $500,000, he's the kind of player the Cubs should be adding so they can spend money where they don't have an internal solution.
  13. Lefty
    No more FA relievers.
  14. Lefty
    I love looking at the ESPN.com site and see the Cubs' production at different positions. Yesterday I quantified the loss of DLee in another thread. Cub second basemen, taking out Todd Walker, have hit .254/.279/.344 in over 370 PAs. It is hard to fathom how awful that is. I guess if Hendry is serious about Cedeno playing 2nd next year, and I don't believe he is, we have seen the future. By the way our Shortstops are .242/.272/.309. So while we appear to be stuck with Izturis, I can't believe we won't pick up some runs in the middle infield next year. Remember Garciaparra and Walker? That was fast.
  15. Lefty
    Third time I've posted this. Restovich's Major League numbers against LHPs is .280/.340/.430. Perfect platoon partner for Jones.
  16. Lefty
    I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good? Well, Lee missed more time than we thought. Cub 1Bs, including Lee have hit .253./.337/.408 this year. Take out Walker's time at first and replace it with Perez' "production," gives us .247/.313/.406. That is about 4.3 runs per game. Lee at .290/.380/.550 is about 7.4 RPG. Cub 1Bs have used up about 14 games this year. So Lee would have been worth about mid 40s runs, or about 4 or 5 wins. How does a bad team become good? By having many players contribute. Do you realize how much dead weight the Cubs are carrying (and playing)? Cub starters besides Zambrano have a 5.84 ERA. The NL average is about 4.8. An average supporting cast for Zambrano would be worth another 6 or 7 games. Right there, a healthy Lee and average starters after Zambrano gets us to .500 and in the wild card race. I assume we'd still have Maddux and Walker making us look even better. We would still have Pierre and Cedeno making outs at an alarming rate. We would still have underproductive corner outfielders. And with average starters after Zambrano, we would be wondering how golden we would be with a healthy Prior and Wood who we assume would be above average. PECOTA projected the Cubs to win 85 games with Prior, Wood and Lee 115 runs above replacement. Given that when Prior pitched he was below replacement, and that the Cubs have gotten some pretty lousy performances from the rest of the replacements, a win total of about 70 makes sense.
  17. Lefty
    So... Nobody should ever play a rookie because they don't have any major league AB's. And they can't get any major league AB's because nobody should ever play them. Got it. When did I say that no team should play a rookie? It would be easier to judge Pie with some at-bats in the big leagues. Big leagues compared to AAA, well, there is no comparison. You can compare stats if you adjust for context. Do you really think Pie could hit .160 if he played a full season? We can say with almost 90% certainty that Pie would hit at least .230 next year with the Cubs, 70% .250 etc. It is all about playing the odds, staying within budget, valuing the right things...
  18. Lefty
    Only if we offer him arbitration. Risky business if you don't want him. Not to hide from offering an opinion, that's what I'd do, because at worst you're stuck with one-year. If he stays "hot" he won't consider it.
  19. Lefty
    Maybe there is an adjustment to be made for the fact that Pie is playing in AAA? Pie's Major League Equivalent is about .255/.295/.390. That is similar to Patterson's 2001 and 2002 seasons. Pie is a half year younger than Patterson at similar levels. So if Pie becomes slightly better than Patterson's .270/.320/.430 seasons, next year is a crapshoot as to who would be more productive. I've always felt that Pierre would be extended to justify trading Nolasco (and Pinto). Hendry has lost confidence in his ability to find solutions. Instead of waiting for an Eric Byrnes or Jose Cruz to be a stopgap (just examples), Hendry would rather pay up to cross something off his to-do-list.
  20. Lefty
    I posted earlier in the year that Restovich's Major League career numbers against LHPs were around .280/.340/.440, i.e., a perfect platoon partner for Jones.
  21. Lefty
    Don't be greedy!
  22. Lefty
    What? Each walk is worth about a third of a run. Each ten runs is about one win. So the Cubs have lost about 20 games more than they should have over this span because of the walk differential. The Reds, on the other hand, have had such awful pitching they haven't been able to take advantage of this. I wouldn't want to sacrifice HRs for BBs necessarily, but we know how to improve the offense, right?
  23. Lefty
    Ok, he's 10th out of 16 teams in the NL. That doesn't sound any better does it? We're a pretty knowledgable crew here, so let's not fall into the Hendry-Baker trap of the "prototypical leadoff-hitter." Leadoff hitter is not a position. Why a player with no objective value (Pierre) is coveted because he bats leadoff is ridiculous. The Cubs would score more runs with almost any other center fielder. Why get hung up on batting order? Lead off Murton for Pete's sake. Hope the Cards don't exercise their option on Edmonds and offer him a one-year contract for absolutely ridiculous money. We'll still be better off.
  24. Lefty
    I can ask for a leadoff hitter who can at least work the count beyond seeing 2-3 pitches and have an on-base percentage of at least .350. Pierre should have his OBP above .350 by the end of the year. There isnt really any leadoff hitter on the FA market. They are really hard to find. So from saying that, I expect to see Pierre in CF next year, and I dont have a problem with that. What is your obsession with a "leadoff hitter?" If the Cubs signed Edmonds to play CF, and led off with Murton, would the Cubs score more runs or less? So why get hung up on where they bat?
  25. Lefty
    You will have your wish.
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