Yeah that's not what I said though. Maybe I'm not reading the situation correctly but isn't xFIP basically saying, wait a minute, his HRs should be higher given all the flyballs he's allowed? I'm basically saying his HR/FB% is getting back into vintage Jake range (7% in 2nd half and 2% in August) so that's not some random fluke or anomaly. His HR suppression was one of his signatures during his peak. Yeah, xFIP is a pretty bad stat. And it is even worse in this era, when the ball is flying out of the park, since the ability to suppress home runs is even more important. Just because a stat is better than ERA, on the whole, doesn't mean it's actually a good stat. And we have a ton of data showing that certain pitchers are able to limit exit velocity, and that limiting exit velocity limits home runs. So for Dave Cameron to randomly throw that and only that out when he horsefeathering writes at Fangraphs is pretty dumb. How did he actually do with xwoba this month? Interesting to note that by strictly batted ball data for this season he induced his lowest amount of soft contact this month, but line drives (nebulous stat) were way down, and he did not allow hitters to pull him much. I was surprised to see his GB% hasn't increased much in the 2nd half.