squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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I’d be pretty pissed as a brewers fan if they ran Ashby back out for a full inning in his fourth appearance in 5 days, and uribe has appeared in the last two, so we might get a senzatela inning here at some point soon. good job by Civale, but to abuck’s point, this is pretty embarrassing.
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I was just going to say this. It’s certainly frustrating but there’s also a little bit of like…satisfaction at them acting this way?
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There’s just no way you can make a definitive call here
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That seemed like a terrible jump and a perfect pitch to get him there too
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lol PCA didnt steal a base for like a month and then he got to 40 HRs and suddenly he just auto goes on first pitch
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Oh the super elite offense didn’t just roll over and die because the pitcher was good, weird
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PCA is, per fWAR, the 49th best offensive Cubs player in history. He's leapfrogged Dansby and Seiya this year, passed by Contreras and Dawson, and with a consistent pace to finish the year, will move past Soriano and Jody Davis. Next year he's realistically looking at getting past Javy, DLee, potentially Happ. At his current pace he'll finish with 11 fWAR, which would be something like the 25th best offensive season of all time and put him in a tie with Hornsby for the best Cubs season of all time. Going off FG projections would get him to 10.6, which is roughly 35th best all time.
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i realize i sound like a big loser mentioning this at this exact moment, but up to 9.9 fWAR for PCA, which is something like the 63rd best offensive season in baseball history
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well that was all super fun.
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lol of course
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sure. why not
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The offense/defense discrepancy usually ends up working out like the mariners series, so it’s nice to see it play out somewhat correctly in a one game sample size
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The brewers have a 97 wRC against LHP, which is 13th in baseball. They’re the best team in baseball and we’re playing at their park. It’s probably going to be tough, regardless. Are there specific reasons why Shota is specifically bad against them or is this just small sample size recollections?
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Are we really doing per opponent stats
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The cubs should absolutely win this game and I hope they do but…Shota going 6 scoreless and then Civale coming in and (maybe) making a mess of it is very, very funny.
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Shota. Game one starter.
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Anyone making a ‘oh no the Phillies’ argument probably needs to explain the 100 run difference in the RD between us and them. Besides ‘well in the playoffs everyone else’s pitchers will pitch better but ours obviously won’t, that would be crazy’
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What about the rest of the rosters
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Sure. I think the bigger point of frustration on my end is that people's opinions on who is a good pitcher or not seemingly are based on their last start/appearance. Which isn't necessarily directed at you big picture, but pointing to his single last start is a little shaky. Remember when Gausman was a terrible acquisition? Boyd pitched well last start and Shota pitched poorly, so Boyd can start game 3 and Shota should stay home. Like, if we're going to do that, just put the conversation to bed for another 3 weeks and see how their last starts of the year go? Boyd has been as bad, if not worse, than Shota, in just about any substantial sample size this year. Shota has allowed more than 2 ER three times in his last 11 starts, and one of those was 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks.
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Is there....some other version of Matt Boyd that's been good that I'm missing? (the start before this was worse, to head off any sample size questions)
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I mean, I don't know what you really think can be done in that scenario. He struck out De La Cruz on 93 in the third, gave up a home run on a breaking pitch in the fourth (every other in play pitch was a fastball over 92 MPH), and then gave up 2 home runs in the fifth on 90.9 and 91.1. Just....as soon as he drops a single MPH on a single fastball, someone better be ready? Just auto pull after 4 innings? How do you explain his lowest average velocity coming in a start where he went 7 scoreless?
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Is this actually statistically accurate or is it just vibes/recency bias? FG has his average fastball at 92.0 in his last start against Cincinnati, which was his highest average velocity since June 29th, and it was his worst start of the season. His lowest average fastball velocity was July 19th, against Minnesota, where it was 90.4, and he pitched 7 scoreless innings.
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In the last thirty days Cubs lefty starter X: 4.85 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 2.12 HR/9, 19.4% HR/FB, .224 BABIP, 5.16 ERA/5.56 ERA+/6.40 FIP/5.16 xFIP Cubs lefty starter Y: 11.51 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 3.57 HR/9, 23.7% HR/FB, .339 BABIP, 5.96 ERA/4.16 ERA+/6.89 FIP/4.25 xFIP To be clear, I think both of these guys are better than this. That's not to say 'Good' or 'Should definitely start a playoff game'. They're both obviously struggling quite a bit, but them pitching well is a step above any of our other non-Gausman/Holmes options, so turning one or both of them into de-facto openers or short stint guys so that we can hypothetically chase wins with Aaron Civale and his 4.73 FIP seems like doing a little too much for pretty minimal upside.
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I’d certainly prefer home field advantage over having to go to Philly, but I really don’t think it’s the best long term plan to treat the next 21 games like some sort of extended playoff and make pitching decisions accordingly. What, we’re just going to pull shota, and Boyd, and I guess Peterson now, at the first sign of trouble, and then…stretch gausman and Holmes as much as possible when it’s their turn because we need 5 innings from the bullpen the other three times through the rotation?
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Man. Wasn't expecting much for this year, though he had the highest upside for a late season spark. But next year is really starting to look ugly in terms of the rotation. (does a quick look up on Reid Detmers since the trade deadline, sees his 1.46 ERA, logs off frustratedly)
