WrigleyField 22

You really gonna try and make me open Twitter to read this thread? Gotta go and get your own Twitter account now

Wanted to do a thread exploring where talent and value was found in later waves of FA last year.

Feels like I should double down on my $5 division bet and bet the house on it.

Whats a 11 win offense with a 1 win DL?

Yes, thank you. I AM an expert.

Experts (for whatever their opinions are worth) are predicting a 6-win season. That would be bottom 1/3 And it would not take a miracle to outperform expert predictions My book them at +300 to win division. So about 25% chance. Seems fair. Maybe I should lay a five on that so I can't be accused of being negative when I complain about any particular Poles move/non-move

Post draft casualitis can sometimes unearth finds. Washington I know was really pleased with what they got from Charles Leno when Chicago cut him in 2021 after the draft, as one example. But it's definitely a mix of hope and luck that the fits at position of needs all work out. Even the Reiff signing (wasn't a cut, but happened late) was like kind of okay. But kind of okay isn't good. Next few weeks will close out most of the few remaining options for good/promising. Then we'll head into "okay maybe it works" with lots of Braxton Jones day 3 draft bets sprinkled in, hoping one "hits" (relatively speaking) immediately. I still have them at needing to spend about 36-40M in cash (I'm already factoring in draft and some in season room). So that's 36-40M between FAs and extensions (through Feb of next year, basically)

Why?

I was just thinking about how I have serious doubts that Poles would have made that trade-up for Fields if he was in charge and the situation was the same. I'll take how it played out. Would have had an intentional two year tank and be drafting Stroud/Young this year for sure

Top 10. Its all a matter of perspective. Ask the aussies.

It's not going to take a miracle to finish out of the bottom 1/3 FFS Goes for Carolina as well. They get 14 games vs. their division, AFC South and NFC North. The playoff teams from last year they face have Tua at QB, Geno at QB, or are the 9-8 Jags and a partially torn down Vikings team. Just gonna go ahead and count on preseason SoS to be bunk. Bears were gonna have any easy schedule in 2022! (no one @ me with real stats on the matter)

No idea how this metric is caclutated, but at face value would correlate to about a 6 win expected season based on pythagoream w%. They were 5.2 last year.

I *still" cant tell what percentage of the fan base is memeing and what percent thinks he's actually good. 5 % memeing. I don't think the full remaining 95% think he's like good good. Definitely some variance. But prob like 12-23% think he's next Urlacher or something.

this is a BS account sharing random made up crap for engagement they might have a great analytics department but this guy sure as hell doesn't know I think an R&D analyst who allows themselves to go on the record like that wouldn't have a job much longer lol. It sounds like what Jonah Hills character would say in Moneyball. So yea, total "make up what I think analytics dept sounds like" vibes.

Lamenting try hard local kid who went to (Wisconsin/Iowa/Northwestern) is the most Chicago Sports media thing ever.

I don't know but sounds like he has serious mid round 1 type helium right now.

I think per PFF tracking his intermediate is top 10. Just not as much volume. He was lowest on short/LOS, and mid pack on deep. Their accuracy charting isn't just comp % though. So there is some subjectiveness about things like what is considered "catchable" v "on target" v "off target"

Should be a good short yardage back. Herbert isn't special there. And could carry the load if Herbert is hurt. It's a very role specific RB room now. That comes with disadvantages, but the roles that are covered are all pretty strong I think. Has it's advantages and disadvantages for sure.

He didn't pull down everytime he saw man coverage Kyle. He did lack guys who could get open, especially against man. For most of the year he usually had one good WR (Claypool and Mooney only crossed over a handful of games). Hopefully he has three now, baring health. Also has a decent TE2 who doesn't suffer from cement in his shoes. Improving the RT and Jones taking a step would be huge though. Less that they have to run 2 route combos because they are max protecting, the better.

Sure, they were a little unlucky. You have to be a both bad *and* unlucky to go 3-14, very few teams are a "true" 3-win talent or whatever. But the D-line is horrible ,there's still some question marks in the back 7 too (Gordon and Sanborn, looking at you). The offensive line looks an awful lot like the historically bad offensive line we just ran out. And we still don't really know what we have in Fields. He's an unpredictable combinations of strengths (Hester-like open-field running from a QB, good deep ball, great leadership/work ethic) and weaknesses (slow processor, wonky mechanics that lead to inaccuracy on short and intermediate throws, a tendency to take sacks by dragging out plays looking for home runs). I can see some upside for this roster, but I can definitely see the downside too. The NFL usually has a few really bad teams, a few really good teams, and like two dozen that are in the middle and could go 6-11 or 11-6 just based on luck and bounces. We're kind of on the borderline between the bad group and the big mass of mediocrity, imo. Could go either way. The OLine is similar-worse-maybe better if Jones takes a big step. But the weapons around Fields are improved enough that I feel that makes a big imorovement. Lots of research around the fact that weapons at WR make a bigger difference than the OL. Fields may be sacked 50 time again, but I feel pretty good about the O and you can point to at least two cases of scrub WR basically costing the Bears a chance at a couple of those close losses. But with the current DL, even with some minimal improvement I think they'll have a lot of shootout games.

I think the "as currently constructed" requires the huge disclaimer that a lot of other teams are still partially constructed too. Right now the biggest issue is going to be the DL. That's a DL that can lose them a lot of games. But as David noted the 3 win team was somewhat unlucky as is. If they end up a baseline 8 win team a 6-10 actual range is all reasonably in play because there's just so much variance on a average team over a 17 game schedule. I don't think 8 win baseline would be enough based on the resources they had. They're gonna have A LOT of resources again next year. They were always gonna have strong assets, but it's gonna be a "no excuses" amount.

More weapons that are actual NFL quality is good. Even an average-ish one. Eff the trenches, at least give Fields weapons.

I think poles is like theo Epstein where he is always super willing to walk away if it goes past the hard limit price he has set. I think in the long run that will serve us well. It's a welcome departure from Pace fixating on guys and paying absurd prices to get them. I just have some concerns about his positional priorities. It shouldn't be quite as hard in football as it is in baseball to set markets. It's a capped league with a very narrow pie everything comes from. Like of course identifying the right talent is important, but too much fixation on hard limits is just a lot less meaningful. The market really is whatever the league revenue says it is. Yea there's shifting positional markets, but... I just worry he's just being conservative for the sake of it. Like last year was a clear tank job. This year the investment levels don't really live up to a team trying to win. Improved of course, but at this point the biggest influence seems to be a cash floor that they have to meet. Really don't want see him be a Ballard who was a slave to his values. He's gotta ramp up his agrrsiveness in FA. It's a meatbally take that FA is bad. Invest in the team!

Can Floyd be a SAM who bumps down to DE on nickel as a rusher? He was never bad in coverage/run when he was here before. He improved his pass rush stats in LA.

Grain of salt PFF all you want, but I think everyone agrees the run D was trash last year. Hopefully a big upgrade there. Still a few DL bodies short.