David

one of my favorite posts in that brewerfan thread totally empty...lol

randomly saw this in the replies and was like lol? [tweet]https://twitter.com/jwmula/status/892040935227494400[/tweet]

ah, what the hell, i'll humor davell, even if this isn't really saying much [tweet] [/tweet]

FG projection back over 90 wins (90.6)

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots. The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well. Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better. Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal. I just don't really think there is any playoff secret sauce. And to any degree that there might be something that plays better, I think the impact is minimal. There's just too much variance in baseball and in a short series, and too many rounds to get through. In other words, even if bullpen moves did have a disproportionate impact, how much is it really moving the needle on the 12-15% chance a team has going in (or, at absolute extreme best, if you love the Dodgers as much as FG's projections do, 20%, which I think is overselling their chances). As for your 25% number, that's crazy high. No team has that going into the playoffs.

No they seemed to have fixed that problem. They have the 3rd highest wRC+ against lefties this year. Dodgers at this point could have had rentals of JD Martinez and Darvish and pushed their WS needle basically into FU mode. Don't really think the needle gets moved all that much by doing that.

I don't have an issue with it because you can help your team have a better shot in the playoffs. But it's also about improving your odds of making the playoffs, and in the case of these deals, it actually made the 2018 team better as well. Sure, I was mainly responding to the idea that this was about the Nats and Dodgers.

Grb thinks Wilson falls somewhere between LOOGY and run of the mill reliever.

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

theres an alex avila parody account

was actually a crossbow but yeah

No, it sounds like it's Candelario, Paredes and possibly a PTBNL/cash. haha omc thinks it's anderson and santos

what the what

imagine if we hadn't needed to have (or had) happ turn into a significant part of the mlb roster...

This is silly. Wilson would be a huge piece for this year and next year and they're not subtracting anything from the roster. He could have a bigger impact on the playoffs than Verlander. Verlander could always still be an August addition. it's a backup catcher and our 3rd (maybe 2nd) best reliever. it's a nice get, but make no mistake, it's boring. booooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring.

wasn't rosenthal the one who got the ball rolling tonight?

please look at tom loxas's feed right now he is so full of horsefeathers it's amazing

tom loxas is still pretending he knows things [tweet] [/tweet]

i could ruin that, but i won't, and continue to be the one horsefeathers regular poster who didn't like it

[tweet] [/tweet] seems ilke an eternity ago that we got this guy

do you guys think we broke the giants?

i mean, trading for verlander is a move for the next 2-3 years too and beats a longer term big money commitment to one of the FA starters, so i'd hope they wouldn't decide that based on "john lackey's been pretty good his last 3 starts so horsefeathers it"

i'm holding out hope that the more names come out the more it's us caving what little bit we didn't want to cave on verlander

here's a much more fun update than this trade rumor [tweet] [/tweet]

stop posting that fake person