David

of course we can. so can the dbacks or rockies. Or any of the other viable NL playoff contenders... so, the nats?

of course we can. so can the dbacks or rockies.

and the playoff crapshoot monster will probably get them if the rotation injury monster doesn't first

to dodgers

nah they'll just be happy when we trade them for good players and sign bryce harper

as i posted earlier, i obv don't think a .700 team needs to really do anything, but this nevertheless is still funny to me if it's all they do after all the rumors lol [tweet] [/tweet]

[tweet] [/tweet]

He has. tell us things

maybe not hand deliver it

If he went dressed up in any outfit but the one he wore to the playoff game there is no way anybody would recognize him. Throw a bryant shersey on him with khaki shorts and he's 75% of the fan base. that's what i figure but he also seems really introverted (for what little we know about him - which is essentially 14 years of complete silence publicly) and i could see him wanting to distance himself from ground zero entirely.

i wonder if he has made his way unnoticed to a cubs game at some point in the last 14 years (i'm thinking probably not) and if not, if he will now

it definitely is, but his life was impacted in such a negative way...at least he gets something awesome out of it in the end.

Cool olive branch (not even sure if that's the right word here) from the Cubs and I'm relieved for him and hopefully his life is made less weird by this. [tweet] [/tweet] Statement from Bartman

Apparently, this guy underestimates the stupidity of the Brewers organization. These guys had Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Yovanni Gallardo, Ricky Weeks, JJ Hardy, and Cory Hart in like a 3 year time frame and still couldn't do anything with it. Whenever the Brewers think they have a window of contention, they try a little to hard to act like a big market team, and end up having that window abruptly slammed down on their hands. Different administrations, just saying. Also, the guy you're quoting (and most of the people who agree with him) are the ones arguing against the Brewers trying to act like a big market team and instead want them to stay the course with their rebuild.

seems like the cardinals are gonna end up trading lynn

if we're having this conversation a year ago, maybe you're talking about cody bellinger and not alex verdugo. i just don't see how it makes sense for any team that has the division locked up and is on pace for 114 wins to give up any future value for "upgrades." diminishing returns. i'm not even sure you get a 2% gain there. their WS odds are already absurdly high. maxed out. hell, they can still trade verdugo when they actually need an upgrade, maybe next year. how the hell do you get better than a .700 baseball team? Verdugo isn't on the same level as Seager or Bellinger (I'm not sure Joc won't end up with a better career). How much did the Cubs gain in WS% by trading away a better prospect than Verdugo for Chapman? The Cubs don't win last year's WS without Chapman. There are actual deficiencies and red flags on the Dodgers roster that should be addressed. That's speculative hindsight. I don't really agree that they don't win it without him (in the sense that they won it because they got him). They probably don't win it either way if they do it over again, but they did something very improbable. It's just not something worth debating. Of course you can point to any player who contributed and say, "Oh, they don't win it without that guy." The fact is, they had to strongly defy the odds either way. They did. I don't think they did anything right beyond just being a good baseball team that had some improbable things fall their way in key moments. You're not gonna convince me otherwise on the math. We just got very lucky, despite being really damn good. And not that it's all that consequential to the argument, Bellinger was only a top 100 prospect (54) on BA's list a year ago (I'm guessing by midseason he had moved onto lists but I'm too lazy to check). Verdugo went into this year 58th on BA, 61st and MLB.com, and 66th on BP. I don't think their value (bellinger last year) is crazy off as prospects.

mannn that douchebag kap was probably so amped up about that "get"

Don't really think the needle gets moved all that much by doing that. Fine, the Fangraphs odds go from 19% to 21%. They have endless payroll. "We may have wasted another year of Kershaw but hey at least we have Alex Verdugo and all this money!" if we're having this conversation a year ago, maybe you're talking about cody bellinger and not alex verdugo. i just don't see how it makes sense for any team that has the division locked up and is on pace for 114 wins to give up any future value for "upgrades." diminishing returns. i'm not even sure you get a 2% gain there. their WS odds are already absurdly high. maxed out. hell, they can still trade verdugo when they actually need an upgrade, maybe next year. how the hell do you get better than a .700 baseball team?

one of my favorite posts in that brewerfan thread totally empty...lol

randomly saw this in the replies and was like lol? [tweet]https://twitter.com/jwmula/status/892040935227494400[/tweet]

ah, what the hell, i'll humor davell, even if this isn't really saying much [tweet] [/tweet]

FG projection back over 90 wins (90.6)

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots. The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well. Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better. Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal. I just don't really think there is any playoff secret sauce. And to any degree that there might be something that plays better, I think the impact is minimal. There's just too much variance in baseball and in a short series, and too many rounds to get through. In other words, even if bullpen moves did have a disproportionate impact, how much is it really moving the needle on the 12-15% chance a team has going in (or, at absolute extreme best, if you love the Dodgers as much as FG's projections do, 20%, which I think is overselling their chances). As for your 25% number, that's crazy high. No team has that going into the playoffs.

No they seemed to have fixed that problem. They have the 3rd highest wRC+ against lefties this year. Dodgers at this point could have had rentals of JD Martinez and Darvish and pushed their WS needle basically into FU mode. Don't really think the needle gets moved all that much by doing that.

I don't have an issue with it because you can help your team have a better shot in the playoffs. But it's also about improving your odds of making the playoffs, and in the case of these deals, it actually made the 2018 team better as well. Sure, I was mainly responding to the idea that this was about the Nats and Dodgers.