Transmogrified Tiger

They're also going to see the schedule break in their favor pretty soon, many of us said going in that the goal was to tread water during the early stretch of the season. These numbers are still fairly squishy but I think representative. 13 of the 29 non-Cubs teams are below .500, 45%. Only 13 of the 38 games so far(34%) have been against those teams.

Things I know and/or believe to be true: The offense has been fine on the whole. They are 14th in wRC+, 10th in Slugging, 11th in HR and Runs. You hope for better out of a playoff team, but there's reason to expect that is coming, considering... They have faced pretty significant headwinds so far. Their two best hitters have combined to play 50% of games, this was always considered the toughest stretch of the schedule in terms of opponent quality, and anecdotally they've drawn opponents best starters more than expected. That said... Most recently they've had a rough stretch. The last 14 days they're around 22nd/23rd in those metrics above, the above headwinds haven't helped, and couple other key contributors have slumped at poor times(possibly due to minor injury). 2.5 weeks without an off day amplifies things like small knocks and forces more usage from a bench depleted by said injuries with poorer options. Given the context above, I see no reason the most recent poor stretch is more predictive than the whole, especially the whole in context. They're about to get Bellinger and Seiya back, and in the process resolve at least one of the biggest holes in the lineup(PCA's 67 wRC+). The opponent/opposing pitcher luck may not resolve before Memorial Day, but definitionally can't continue forever. Pending rain out shuffling, they are done with their longest stretch without an off day this season.

funny enough, he's only at .285/.310/.357 against the Cubs this year, including today

No, Vazquez would very likely be worse than what we'd expect from either.

that run is at least 50% on the umpire for not ringing up Cronenworth on the obvious strike 3

I'm likely just overcompensating for the visual aesthetics of the swings, but I'm going to guess Bellinger. Watch it be Madrigal because the bat only has to go half as far as a normal person, like comparing a pitcher's velo from the mound vs. long tossing

Wonder if Swanson is fighting some physical ailment. 2 days off in a week, this one leading into another day off, is decidedly not the norm for him.

Japanese signings are specifically excluded from the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

Pressly already has 15 appearances, absent a multi-month IL stint he's gonna vest that option. However, Pressly's contract situation may work in Jed's favor on the whole. His AAV and nearly-guaranteed 2025 salary should scare off less aggressive suitors Pressly has full no-trade and the Cubs competitive window should help vs. a pop-up/smaller market contender If recent deadline prices are any indication, Houston would have to eat significant money to get even a modest prospect return, which would fit into Jed's wheelhouse of spending and prospect depth

Baseball Savant! https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=746886

My takeaways were a little different but maybe thematically similar. The 'whatever' or cosmic influence I think we can chalk up to the extremely fluky way the Cubs lost the shutout, Lovelady deserved to be three up three down wayyy more than he deserved to give up those first 3 hits, and at that point you're on plan C for the inning and it snowballed. The pen has been unlucky almost more often than it's been bad the last few days. Having said that, I'm normally very comfortable with managers taking the long view on individual decisions, but last night I think Counsell could've shown more ruthlessness. Brown is said to be available in this series, and there's probably no greater opportunity for him than in this game after Steele couldn't get past 5, scoreless and the heart of the Padres lineup due up. Yes, Brown was on 3 days rest after throwing 89 pitches, but we'd also only expect him to throw 2 innings/30-40 pitches. If he truly was available I think it was a missed opportunity considering the median situation you'd expect the next 2 games before the off day. The other is more cutthroat but one I'd expect a manager of Counsell's stature to be able to make, and that's pinch hitting for Gomes in the 8th. Gomes had just hit a HR which makes it a tough choice optically, but we've seen so far this year Gomes has been overwhelmed by above average velocity, and Suarez throwing 90% of his pitches between 97-100 is a terrible matchup, on top of the DP risk being extremely damaging if he did put the ball in play. There weren't terrific options off the bench(I'd have been half tempted to tell Canario to sit 4 seam every pitch and try to run into one), but Gomes' PA had a predictable outcome. Maybe he felt strongly about giving Amaya the full night off from catching, but given the inning and game state I think that was a risk worth taking.

Tauchman did not have a chance to catch that ball, it was falling too fast so he correctly kept it from skipping past him. Maybe there's a 10-15% chance he straight lines to the ball and can lay out, but with no outs and the heart of the order up the most likely outcome is Tatis standing on 3rd, and Tauchman right to avoid it.

No

Suarez doesn't really have a platoon split so there's not really a 'wrong' choice in that vein, whoever you think can best come in cold and time up 98-99. I know he just hit a HR but Gomes is a pure slider speed bat at this point, especially against elite velo.

I don't think you can let Gomes hit here, he can't catch up to this fastball

Nicky two strikes rides again

In fairness, you are a day closer to next week than most of us

Based on those xBAs, there was a 0.2% of all of those being hits.

a good sport that is definitely worth our time and investment

Steele at 93-94, which should more or less confirm that we should ignore or add 2-3 mph to any Iowa velo readings

Something I hadn't really thought about was how Madrigal's starts at 3B are significantly driven by the 2 lefty groundball SP, and despite being 40% of the opening day rotation they've only made 17% of the starts. Interested to see if that ticks up as Steele and Wicks return, or if confidence in Morel's defense/lack of confidence in Madrigal's bat win out.

Welcome! I would be very hesitant to attribute single game AAA pitch data as a sign of the Cubs railroading Horton's pitch dev to fit into a mold that Steele only occupies out of necessity.

You also have more sand go through the hourglass with every passing day in terms of what value he can offer his next team before FA. Is waiting til July when there's no doubt he's fixed for 60-70 games going to be worth more than the team making the high bid to have him for 110-120 games?

Yeah absent info we don't have like an injury(however legitimate in the case of Alzolay), I think it's Brewer. He's had a couple decent outings most recently but on the whole hasn't been anything special, he doesn't offer platoon advantage and is clearly at the bottom of Counsell's pecking order. Plus the likelihood of him being needed again is not terribly high and neither is the downside of exposing him to waivers. If we got to his spot in the Iowa shuttle again, you have no shortage of other options that could be considered next time. From journeyman starter types(Teheran, Straily) to waiver wire fodder(McWilliams, Carl) to legitimate prospects of varying roles(Horton, Hodge, Cuas), there's likely to be someone favored above him at that point.