Transmogrified Tiger

I get that they're not using Pitch f/x, but I'm still extremely skeptical of the quality of the input data there. I think it would potentially be useful for comparing teammates, but even among players in the same league I'm not convinced that there's uniformity in pitch tracking implementation to make for a good data source.

Removing a SP works just like how putting the DH in the field works today. The relief pitcher takes the DH's spot in the batting order, so while everyone has the DH, managers still have to consider how they replace pitchers w/r/t the offensive side. So if Schwarber is your DH and you pull the SP, you'd have to move Schwarber to the field to keep him in the lineup? And then the DH is basically gone the rest of the game? Or more likely, Schwarber is done for the day when you pull the SP.

Removing a SP works just like how putting the DH in the field works today. The relief pitcher takes the DH's spot in the batting order, so while everyone has the DH, managers still have to consider how they replace pitchers w/r/t the offensive side.

This all seems a little silly to me. The Cubs have 3 guys with the potential to start at catcher(2 on the MLB roster), but uncertainty about all of them being that person(will Montero still be good, will Contreras continue his pace at AAA, is Schwarber a catcher). Adding another MLB rostered catcher to the mix right now is not a good way to hedge against those outcomes, especially since the odds of having a decent option in house for 2017 is pretty decent. The Cubs may very well need a catcher for 2017, given the assets they have at the position now, making a move as decisive as trading for an MLB catcher at this point is not a good idea.

Why is that? You get a mound visit every inning right? How about one mound visit per game. You'd probably use it to talk to the starter one time in most games. 2 reviews and 2 challenges A review gives your guys 30-45 seconds to consider making a challenge. If you use both without challenging, you still get the challenge but has to be made without a chance to review. And with that strict use of the timing rules btw innings/pitches/atbats. Disincent managers killing time so they can check replay before challenging, disincent managers arguing with umpires. Your idea would help with that too.

I have 6. - Automated balls and strikes - Managers can't leave the dugout and if they do it counts as a mound visit - DH in both leagues tied to the starting pitcher - Make draft/IFA pools equal for all teams or equal in large groups(e.g. non-playoff teams have a higher pool than playoff teams but all non-playoff teams have the same pool) - Lottery the top 5 or so spots in the draft order - Kill the qualifying offer and pick compensation, or require a player to have been with the team for 3+ years to be eligible

[tweet] [/tweet] Wonder if this means they found a deal they like for one of their other OF.

I thought this was fascinating: http://www.hardballtimes.com/cold-weather-positions-and-penalties/ This graph in particular was really compelling: http://www.hardballtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/P1-Position.png Food for thought as we enter Soler Kombat season.

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[tweet] [/tweet] Gonna get irrationally excited about sending them Castro in a deal for Teheran(and maybe Maybin/Grilli too) now.

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Thus far I've seen: Gordon Heyward Lackey Daniel Murphy Ian Kennedy Marco Estrada Teams are pretty much daring any player who isn't terrible to take one at this point.

There's a couple disparate threads where this is touched on, let's round things up to see if we can get a clearer picture, starting with past payrolls. Here's the Opening Day payroll from each year of the Epstein era from Cot's: 2012: 109 million 2013: 107 million 2014: 92 million 2015: 120 million The important thing I'd like to try to do is infer the baseline that the front office was working from prior to new revenue streams(signage, TV, attendance, etc). One thing that gives us a pretty big hint is how Lester's contract is structured and their statements up to and around it. Lester got a 15 million signing bonus paid this April and a healthy 15 million as his salary this year. We've heard allusions to the failed Tanaka pursuit rolling over into future payrolls, and the math seems pretty close here. If you use 105-110 million as the previous baseline, the 15 million saved in 2014 matches up pretty nicely. Add in the fact that Cot's is counting Lester at 20 million towards this year instead of the more appropriate 15, and 2015 is only a mild increase payroll wise. That's important because there's a bunch of new revenue sources that started this year. Radio - The switch to WBBM I doubt paid less than WGN, but I don't think this moves the needle. Signage - The video boards weren't up for the full season, but I imagine those agreements were made ahead of time once ownership flipped the bird to the rooftops last summer. If there's any revenue source that was baked into the 2015 payroll I bet this was it, although because it's not fully realized with the partial season on the video boards I imagine there's more room to grow it. Here's a Chicago Business article where 'experts say' it could bring in between 10 and 20 million per year: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140527/BLOGS04/140529849/cubs-unveil-new-outfield-signs-wrigley-field-renovation-plans Attendance - A quick yearly comparison of total attendance: 2012: 2.88 million 2013: 2.64 million 2014: 2.65 million 2015: 2.96 million At a conservative $50/person all included, that's 4 million more in revenue than 2012, and at least 15 million more than 2013-14. It's important to note that attendance was 3 million plus in the Hendry era, but this is money that the preceding seasons just did not have. TV - This is where things get more fun. h/t davell for his post here. CSN - Per this link, CSN per-game went up 150k this year. That's about 12 million in new revenue. ABC - The same link says ABC is paying 750k for their 25 games that were previously on WGN at 250k per game. That's another 12 million WGN - There haven't been concrete figures released about WGN's new deal that I've seen. The above link says that the Cubs were hoping to get 500k per game although the Tribune claims the deal was "more favorable" to WGN. That leaves the net change in revenue from losing a couple million to gaining another 10-11 million. Postseason - There was some debate on this in another thread, but the general rule of thumb I've seen and seen loosely validated is that teams get around $5 million per home game. Even taking half that as a conservative estimate, you're looking at another 10-15 million of one time revenue. Add all of that together, and post 2015 the team has somewhere in the neighborhood of 50-75 million more in *recurring* revenue to work with than it has in previous seasons. We don't know if this will go 100% to payroll(the renovations might need to be paid from this for example), and some of it might have been applied to last year's payroll, which with the additions of Haren, Hunter, Jackson and Soriano ended up pushing 125 million. With all of that in mind, what should we expect for next year? That's the point of this thread, as there's lots of room to wiggle numbers and agree/disagree. Personally, my guess is that there is room for the payroll to go to at least 140 million if not 150 million right away. That's not a hard number, my guess is that if they get to 150 million it's because they added/kept multiple somewhat expensive players instead of going big on a couple(e.g. no Heyward + Price/Greinke), but that still gives a lot of room to be creative and not have to slash payroll to add one big fish either. If you've made it this far, I commend you. If I'm missing something, especially with the revenue stuff, I'd be happy to be corrected, this isn't an area where I'm supremely confident so I tried to source everything I could. This thread isn't for me to pontificate though(too late), so curious where you see the overall number landing for 2016.

I'm gonna break this into 2 parts. This first post is just going to focus on the individuals, and then the follow up post below is going to be on the strategy for building the bullpen for next year. THE BACK END Hector Rondon - RH Repertoire: Fastball (96 mph), Slider (86 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 72 1.67 2.68 3.03 8.9 1.9 0.5 Hector Rondon is great. He's one of the more under-appreciated relievers in the game when you consider how good he has been for 2 years now, and this year was the rock-steady closer for a 97 win team in a major market. He does this by combining elite velocity with elite control. Only 22 relievers have a BB% under 6 the last two years(min 100 IP). Only 3 of those also averaged 95 mph on their fastball, and Rondon is one of them. Because he's always in the zone he's vulnerable to the occasional BABIPing, but since he's almost always hitting his spot he's difficult to square up (remember those 22 relievers with elite control? Rondon's HR/9 is 2nd to Melancon). 2016 outlook: 1st year arb eligible (3.6M estimate) - out of options Rondon is going to be back at the end of the bullpen again next year. While there's a slim chance they could add a Chapman or a Kimbrel to push him to an 8th inning role, odds are Rondon will be closing again, and that he'll be very good again. Pedro Strop - RH Repertoire: Fastball (95 mph), Slider (83 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 68 2.91 3.16 3.16 10.8 3.8 0.7 As good as Rondon has been, Strop has been right there with him these last two years. When Strop is putting his biting slider where he wants it, he's borderline unhittable. The combination of velocity you have to prepare for with a slider that disappears from the zone is how he racks up big strikeout numbers(19th of 98 RP in K% the last 2 years, min 100 IP). The operative word in the previous paragraph is 'when' though, Strop has intermittent battles with his command and his slider's sharpness. When the slider backs up into the zone, it gets hit hard. The fact that Strop's overall performance is so good despite those occasional struggles is a good reminder on how fickle relievers are as a group. Any bullpen would kill to have Strop pitching in the late innings, even if he sometimes fights his stuff. 2016 outlook: 3rd year arb eligible (4.7M) - out of options Let's save some words: Strop will be in the 2016 pen, pitching in high leverage spots. THE CASTOFFS Trevor Cahill - RH Repertoire: Sinker (93 mph), Curve/Slider (81 mph), Changeup (84 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 17 2.12 3.13 2.21 11.7 2.7 1.0 Cahill was a revelation after the Cubs picked him up and put him in the pen. While as a starter he had fought injury and ineffectiveness, his sinker went up several mph in the pen, which led to performance befitting an elite reliever. In short, the harder sinker made his changeup even harder to hit, and he leaned on those two pitches with a breaking ball thrown in for good measure. The peripherals didn't lie either, Cahill wasn't catching a lucky break, he was legitimately very hard to hit, setting career bests in every contact/whiff measure you can find. This was only 17 IP(plus 5 more in the playoffs), so forecasting the future too much based on this run isn't a great idea, but make no mistake. Cahill was a great reliever this year. 2016 outlook: 13 million team option (500k buyout) - FA if bought out Cahill's option will certainly be declined, and from there things get interesting. It's hard to imagine the team not wanting him back, and if they believe in what they saw this year I could easily see the money that went to Motte/Hunter this year getting funneled Cahill's way. Pitchers are proud people though, and it's very possible that Cahill sees himself as a productive MLB starter that's just getting back on track. If there's a market for Cahill the SP then it seems unlikely he'll be back. If there isn't(and given his lack of health, performance, and team control that sure seems a possibility), then I have to think the Cubs are the favorites to bring him back and use him in a 7th inning role like they did this fall. Fernando Rodney - RH Repertoire: Fastball (94 mph), Changeup (82 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 12 0.75 3.47 3.12 11.2 3.0 0.7 I know it's right above, but it's worth repeating: Fernando Rodney had a 0.75 ERA as a Cub. I repeat that because Rodney's Cub performance was more mismatched with the response to his usage than any other player. He was very bad in Seattle so I understand the skepticism, and his peripherals were more 'good middle reliever' than 'Mariano Rivera reincarnated', but Rodney was quite good in Chicago. His pitch mix didn't appreciably change so it's difficult to say how much we can chalk up to Bosio's influence and how much we can chalk up to the randomness of 12 innings, but Rodney the Cub was well worth his spot and usage in higher leverage spots. 2016 outlook: Free Agent Of all the castoffs, Rodney seems most likely to be elsewhere in 2016. While I'm sure the team wouldn't thumb their nose at him on a very small deal for depth, he turns 39 in March and his repertoire is vulnerable to things going very bad very quickly if he's not right(see his 2015 in Seattle). Travis Wood - LH Repertoire: Fastball (91 mph), Cutter (86 mph), Etc(Curve, Changeup, Slider) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 58 2.95 2.53 3.46 11.0 4.2 0.3 *The above is just Wood as a reliever Travis Wood isn't really a bad starter. He's not someone who you want starting playoff games, but you could do far worse. If he had his 2015 start in 2013 or 2014, I bet the team would have stuck with him in the rotation through those struggles. I say this to highlight that having Wood in the pen was a big luxury. His fastball ticked up from 88 to 91, his cutter from 85 to 88. Those two made up 85% of the pitches Wood threw this year, and he sprinkled in off speed stuff of various breaks to keep hitters honest. This worked very well, Wood was a perfect complement to RH starters like Hammel and Hendricks who often failed to make it through 6. Wood would come in and throw an inning or 2 against LH-stacked lineups(though he didn't have a big platoon split) and bridge the gap to the back end of the pen. 2016 outlook: 3rd year arb eligible (6.4M) - out of options Wood will likely be one of the fulcrums of the offseason. He's a luxury that fits very well with the way that Maddon likes to manage, but he's also a guy who is at maximum throwing ~75 IP in long relief. If there needs to be payroll sacrifices to allow for additions elsewhere, the Cubs can probably approximate Wood for less than his 6+ million salary. Clayton Richard - LH Repertoire: Fastball (93 mph), Slider (82 mph), Etc(Cutter, Changeup) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 24 4.44 3.26 3.45 5.1 1.8 0.4 *The above is just Richard as a reliever This is getting repetitive, I should have made a template. [Player] washed out as a starter last year, the Cubs put him in the bullpen, his velocity ticked up and he was pretty effective. Richard was bought to be an emergency starter, and his ability to eat innings bought him time on the roster to earn his keep as a 2nd LHRP down the stretch. Like with Wood, 85% of his pitches are hard stuff, with enough breaking pitches/offspeed to keep hitters honest. 2016 outlook: 3rd year arb eligible (1.1M) - out of options Richard's investment for next year seems pretty minimal for a team that isn't overflowing with LH pen options(especially if Wood is gone). However, I think his odds of coming back are less than many think. Richard was effective in the pen, but he also is definitely a specialist(RH hitters lit him up), and he doesn't strike guys out. When it comes to LH specialists, I'm getting the impression that the front office doesn't really see a ton of value in 'who' the guy is, just as long as they have one. The thinking is that this is someone you bring in someone to prey on the hitter's split, and not necessarily because they're great themselves. You see this manifested in how they've treated that role recently, ditching Wright for little reason, and using NRIs and DFA candidates(Coke, Russell, Richard) to have that LOOGY option. I wouldn't be shocked if Richard is brought back, a million bucks isn't much and a strike throwing option is a decent complement to Rosscup's stuff + wildness, but I won't bat an eye if they simply non-tender him. THE OTHER INCUMBENTS Justin Grimm - RH Repertoire: Fastball (95 mph), Curve (83 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 50 1.99 3.11 3.05 12.1 4.7 0.7 Grimm did his best 2014 Neil Ramirez impersonation this year. He missed the start of the year with forearm inflammation, and then was a fireballing high K high BB guy the rest of the year. In the warmest month of the year he was sitting 97 with his fastball but otherwise sat around 95, with a curve that sometimes has slider action serving as ~40% of the pitches he throws. Grimm's NLDS appearance was a peek at how good he is when he's throwing strikes, as he struck out the side in dominant fashion. His BB rate above shows you that was a bit of an infrequent occurrence though, and his fastball is straight which makes him a little more prone to getting smacked around too. 2016 outlook: 1st year arb eligible (1.0M) - option eligible While Grimm isn't someone you want closing games or even consistently pitching in the 8th inning until he can throw more strikes, he'll be back next year in a middle relief role. He's in the upper half of qualified relievers, so having him as the 3rd/4th best RP for a million bucks is a borderline luxury. Neil Ramirez - RH Repertoire: Fastball (93 mph), Slider (85 mph), Curve (77 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 14 3.21 3.21 4.07 9.6 3.9 0.6 After a great 2014, Ramirez took a step back and missed most of the year with injury. Health is always the biggest concern with Ramirez, it's why he's in the pen and why Texas likely included him in the Garza deal, and it bit him this year. Perhaps more concerning was that when Ramirez did pitch in Chicago in September, his velocity had not returned to 2014 levels(graph), so the hope is that the offseason can get Ramirez right so he can contribute in 2016. 2016 outlook: 2nd year renewal - out of options A healthy Ramirez certainly has a spot in the major league pen, the question is whether that's going to happen in 2016. His lack of options means that a judgment day might come relatively quick if Ramirez is healthy enough to pitch but still not able to hit 95 with consistency like he did in 2014. Zac Rosscup - LH Repertoire: Fastball (93 mph), Slider (86 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 27 4.39 4.86 4.03 9.8 4.4 1.7 AAA 11 4.76 2.54 ---- 15.6 3.2 0.8 Rosscup blew a golden opportunity to seize a role in the 2015 pen. Maddon spoke fondly of him from his time in Tampa and a strong spring training, and he had ample chance to stake his claim as the LOOGY after Coke faltered. That didn't happen though, as Rosscup couldn't throw enough strikes or avoid the long ball and had some injury trouble to boot. When he's able to throw enough strikes to get into pitchers counts, Rosscup's fastball/slider combo is classic LOOGY stuff. To that end LH batters only hit .154/.289/.289 against him. Righties absolutely crushed him though(.431 wOBA, for reference Joey Votto was 2nd in MLB with a .427 wOBA), and it's hard to be overly confident in getting a single hitter(even a lefty) with a BB% north of 10. 2016 outlook: 2nd year renewal - option eligible Rosscup will almost certainly pitch for the 2016 Cubs, he's got the stuff, an option to burn, and a lack of in house LH competition. He'll have to earn his way onto the opening day roster though, otherwise it'll take more injury or ineffectiveness for him to get a real shot. Carl Edwards Jr. - RH Repertoire: Fastball (94 mph), Curve (79 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 5 3.86 3.35 3.98 9.8 4.4 0.0 AAA 32 2.84 3.50 ---- 11.1 6.8 0.0 AA 11 2.66 2.97 ---- 13.7 6.5 0.4 Edwards was strictly a reliever this year, and the results were positive although a touch below the collective hopes for a Top 100 SP prospect turned RP. Edwards missed a lot of bats in AA and AAA, although his control went from okay to absent. Part of that could be chalked up to harnessing his stuff in shorter stints(the K rates did tick up too), but the fact that he hasn't yet shown an ability to throw consistent strikes as a reliever is worth noting. What Edwards has working for him though is that along with the strikeouts, he is remarkably difficult to square up, continuing his elite HR prevention as a reliever. That will buy him some slack if he can get his walk rate down to even mediocre levels. 2016 outlook: 1st year renewal - option eligible Between Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, a likely external addition(or Cahill), plus one or two LHRPs and long relievers, Edwards has a small hill to climb to be considered a part of the early season pen. He should be one of the first options to fill in when injuries, ineffectiveness, or lack of rest strike. Yoervis Medina - RH Repertoire: Fastball (93 mph), Slider (84 mph) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 9 7.00 4.36 4.55 7.0 4.0 1.0 AAA 34 6.29 4.71 ---- 9.2 5.5 0.8 Better known as 'the guy who we got for Welington Castillo', Medina's Cubs tenure was a bummer, both in that he didn't perform all that great and that said underperformance meant Castillo was basically given away. Medina has the stuff to contribute positively to a MLB pen, but nothing about his Cubs performance has shown he's close to reaching that point in his development. Not enough strikes and too many hard hit balls, even at Iowa. 2016 outlook - 3rd year renewal - out of options Medina's spring training is going to be very important, if he makes it that far. Without a strong showing he'll likely be squeezed off the 40 man. OTHER CHARACTERS OF NOTE Jacob Turner - A candidate for rotation depth too, if he's healthy do they try him in long relief? Jason Hammel - Similarly, if 2 starters get added, does Hammel get the Jackson/Wood treatment if he comes in 6th place? Armando Rivero - A disappointment only matched by Alcantara for prospects expected to impact the 2015 Cubs. The K's went way down, the walks went way back up, and he's still not on the 40 man Eric Jokisch - He holds a 40 man spot for now so he'll have some consideration for a LOOGY spot, but he had a bad year derailed by injury Dallas Beeler - Also holds a 40 man spot but may not for very long. Way down the list of candidates that could have a sustained pen role. Jason Motte/Tommy Hunter - Both more or less were as okay/mediocre as expected, I don't think the FO will be clamoring to bring either back in free agency, but there is some familiarity

Brees @ Philly or Mariota v. Buffalo?

He'll start tomorrow. Roach to Iowa.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/dexter-fowler-switch-hitter-left-handed-pitcher-disparity-062315 The whole link is worth your time, but the gist is: - Fowler is a much better hitter RH than he is LH - This season Fowler's splits are not terribly out of line, but he's not facing nearly as many LHP - The Cubs have faced among the fewest LHP in baseball this year - LHP usage in baseball(especially SP) is nearing historical lows

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La Stella's DL is retroactive to April 9th.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/10-youngest-players-every-full-season-league/ Cubs in the list: NL 4. Soler 7. Alcantara PCL 3. Russell Southern League 5. Almora Carolina League 6. Tseng Midwest League 1. Torres Other fun notes: - Bryce Harper is the youngest player in the NL - The Blue Jays have 4 of the 6 youngest players in MLB - Old small friend Torreyes is still 10th youngest in the PCL

I wondered a little why Grimm didn't get an appearance against STL, that problem also explains his infrequent ST usage. Bummer, hope it's more of an Arrieta problem than a TJ precursor, Grimm was awesome in the 2nd half last year.

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