Transmogrified Tiger

Rizzo Bryant Heyward Schwarber Zobrist Montero Soler Russell Baez

Nice, hopefully post surgery he can get back to striking guys out like he did earlier in his career and maybe a different org can give him a little better control or make him a little less hittable and he'd be a fine relief option. I'm going to be optimistic about it since I had a couple college classes with him.

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/theo-epstein-talks-cubs-and-rotisserie-baseball-on-siriusxm-fantasy-baseball.php I am such a sucker for spring training optimism. Also DJ Lemahieu was a league average player last year as a +0 2B, so if that bat goes to CF with plus defense...well look at Kevin Pillar's 2015. And that is if we're putting a ceiling of a ~90 wRC on Almora, which while a possible outcome seems more than a little silly as a hard cap, given his pedigree and small sample uptick post-Team USA. When Almora is right he hits everything, so peak years of .300/.350/.450 are not out of the question(or in other words, above his ceiling). With plus D that puts you in poor man's Lorenzo Cain territory, or yes, near Mookie Betts's 2015.

I laughed out when I got to the Lackey poster, what a let down after the other names

Grant Brisbee is just the best. Be sure to read that whole article for the part on the Mariners.

Yeah, his numbers in South Bend scare me a lot. Looking at his Eugene stats: 17.7% BB%, 21.5% K%. OK, I can deal with a >20% K-rate if you are walking that damn much. You could even attribute the K-rate to him just being uber-patient at the plate. Looking at the South Bend stats, though: 10.3% BB% and 23.6% K%. Well, you moved up to full-season ball. The K's are about the same, a little up. To be expected. The walks are down quite a bit, though. Still a fine walk rate, but it isn't exceptional. It's certainly not enough to make up for an astronomical strikeout rate from a college bat in A-ball. Granted, these are both incredibly small sample sizes, so it doesn't mean much -- especially when comparing them against each other. But, one thing is for certain: from his time in both places, it is pretty obvious that he is going to strikeout a fair amount. If he walks like he did in Eugene, I'm all in, K's be damned (unless it gets up near 30%). But, if that gulf between K% and BB% remains about where it was at South Bend -- or, gasp, even widens -- then I'm out on him. He just doesn't have enough other positives for me to be OK with him striking out like that, especially considering what level he is in. I could even be talked into the K rate given the IsoP, I can be a K rate apologist so 10% BB rate and .200 Iso are pretty good cover for a K rate in progress. It's the lack of average on top of that that's the killer. It's only 165 PA so I don't want to overreact too much, but hitting .241 as a college draftee at that level doesn't portend that well. Plenty of time to make me look stupid, but he's not coming close to cracking my Top 3 in a system that has a lot of players who can make a claim at that level.

I wonder how much of that reaction is 'TWO opt outs!?!?!' v. the actual duration/AAV.

I can see arguments for Cease, EJM, or even Edwards, but I went with Almora. There's some logical reasons to believe in his second half at AA, which if it's remotely real put him in a very good spot to be a solid MLB contributor while others are a lot more speculative. I don't understand the Happ love this early. I'm hoping to be proven wrong that he was just out of gas or something, but a .241/.315/.448 line in South Bend w/ a near 25% K rate from a college draftee that doesn't provide much defensive value does not scream like a player that should be getting top of the list consideration.

- Contreras puts up a .800 OPS give or take at Iowa and generally looks like a first division catching prospect - Almora avoids prolonged slumps in Iowa but still has a 750ish OPS to cast doubt on his ability to be a starting OF - Ryan Williams continues to take the Hendricks path of no hype to being a capable MLB SP - Zagunis sadly goes the way of Stephen Bruno in his first AA exposure - Underwood continues to look very good to the eye test while not actually getting minor league hitters out like he should, is hopefully used in a blockbuster deadline deal before everyone else figures out he's fools gold - Jimenez and EJM both show well in full season ball, drawing some comparisons to the Lake/Castro hype train when they were in low levels. - Donnie Dewees is either the new McKinney or the new Zagunis, I can't decide which. Neither is a particularly great compliment.

And hates the Royals, it seems projection systems have a blind spot for what they've done with their bullpen They also project to be pretty easily below average at 4 of 9 lineup spots and like 3 of 5 rotation spots. They have a little bit of the plexiglass effect going on with several of their hitters(especially Cain) that will probably end up being pessimistic, but they aren't an especially good team.

I will play devil's advocate. If you combined the Dodgers and White Sox, the White Sox could easily have 3 of the top 4 starters and the top 2 position players. They also play in a less competitive division. That said I don't really think it's all that likely to happen, the Sox still have a gaping hole or two and no depth, but I do think the collapse(maybe not collapse, but large disppointment) risk is higher for the Dodgers than is generally thought.

On the other hand, he'll be what, 21+ months from surgery on Opening Day? I won't be upset if he's not at South Bend to start the year, but I don't think it's imperative he avoids early season MWL weather either.

As a fledgling Sounders fan, that kinda sucks. Guess I have to hope they find a legit midfielder to use that DP spot on, and that Morris is the real deal.

Does Nolin have an option left? I'd throw something to the A's to have him in reserve in Iowa and add a little more youth to the SP depth.

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Eh, I'm not sure who is to blame there. Is CBS supposed to be aware of every blogger who might Tweet out a pic (especially if it's already a somewhat known blog that Tweeted out Arguello's pic seemingly without crediting the source)? It's not like it's hard to hit re-tweet. It's actually a lot harder to Tweet that pic out without linking it to Arguello's Tweet. and i think everyone here knows how not a fan I am of Arguello's work I think it's more of an honest mistake. CBS had no way of knowing, but they fixed it when notified. Bornon3rd could have cited the source, but the point of the tweet was more light-hearted fun than official reporting so I get not taking away from that purpose with formal citation. The worst offender is Arguello going off the deep end about it, and ruining his future pictures over what amounts to a victimless misunderstanding.

So Arguello lives in Arizona, and he's the one who got this shot of Heyward. It's a real good ST pic, especially for someone who probably has to shoot over/around a fence: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/files/2016/02/Jason-Heyward-624x468.jpg Yesterday, another Cubs blog used that pic in this tweet: [tweet] [/tweet] That tweet somehow got picked up by CBS Chicago's blog, who credited the pic to Bornon3rd or Yahoo, I'm not 100% sure and it's since been corrected. This apparently pissed off Arguello, who ranted about it for a while last night, and who now has found a solution in the form of MSPaint watermarks. [tweet] [/tweet] I get that it sucks that his picture was misattributed, but how do you come to the (apparently inarguable) conclusion that a 'woo Jason Heyward at camp' tweet is stealing your work? Sure citation would have been nice, but this is also just Twitter we're talking about, not a blog post or more formal form of media. I look at that tweet and don't assume that person took the picture(partially because of how good it is!), am I crazy?

is Nantes the name of a french high school or something

Oh I forgot about #28, I didn't think long enough about who could be a FA. That's a little better, but still a little silly considering they would have 2 other Top 50 picks(including protected #10). Adding a legit MLB OF would make a big difference for them and the impression they're giving off is that it's a marginal upgrade not worth the tradeoff.

There's a couple teams that have either gotten really silly with pick hoarding, or they're using that as an excuse to be cheap. The White Sox basically lose pick #50 by signing Fowler, that is barely worth anything. A couple million bucks max.

Trade Coghlan, not Soler. Fowler is an upgrade and a much better roster fit than Coghlan, swapping Fowler for Soler doesn't really move the needle. Also, with being a true CF, Schwarber catching/DHing, and Soler's proclivity for injury, odds are Dex would be able to get closer to 500 PA than 300 once the actual imperfect circumstances of the season play out.

Here's a comparison that might be a bit more instructive, to Jose Abreu: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=gourri000yul http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=abreu-009jos Gurriel's peak last year is higher(although only 100 PA), and Abreu had a bit of a higher baseline, but in all their total Cuban numbers are similar.

got dangit, Kris Bryant was the best 3B in the NL by like a win and a half, stop trying to make him an outfielder

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Gimme Contreras. I'm more convinced that his breakout is sustainable(maybe not to his exact AA numbers, but to the extent that he's real) given his tools and peripherals than I am that Torres will do two of 1) add power 2) continue to hit 3) prove to be a MLB SS.