Transmogrified Tiger
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Amazing timing, this is an account that reposts Jeff Sullivan's tweets 6 months later [tweet] [/tweet] -
lol I looked back down at my meal I was so certain that was ball 3 umpires
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Rondon, Chapman, Edwards? TRICK QUESTION THEY'RE ALL EDWARDS no actually you're right
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Fun with ERA/FIP 1.83/2.42 2.12/1.72 1.62/2.18 Try to guess who is Edwards, who is Rondon, and who is Chapman.
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Carl Edwards is the truth
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Nailed it. The real answer is that 99% of professional baseball is playing on Sunday afternoon, and they want to avoid yanking every traded player mid-game or having a mad rush once games start ending. To me the simpler solution would be to go back to a midnight deadline on a Sunday, but I also don't think moving to 8/1 is stupid either.
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Yeah, Lodeiro was a lot of fun. 2016 is lost, but some more time to build rapport with Clint and an offseason to flush out Valdez/Ivanschitz/Gomez/Mears and bring in a new DP should have them in real good shape for next year.
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I think that's a bit of an oversimplification. The Cubs are in a bit of a unique spot where they're extremely unlikely to miss the playoffs or end up in the wild card game, but if we're saying 'boy I don't know if one of the top 3 or so catchers in MLB for this year and next really moves the needle', I think we're taking it a bit far.
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Having a better hitter, defender, framer, and game caller for the rest of the season and playoffs makes a real difference. If you want to pick nits at 'significant' have at it, and like I said before I'd rather not because of the cost, but the improvement is undeniable. Every season is at the mercy of a handful of pitching elbows and shoulders staying intact and productive, so there's definitely appeal and benefit to capitalizing when we know we have those lined up. Theo said almost exactly that after the Chapman deal.
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Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree. I'm not big on arbitrary end points (I mean, I'm happy to look to splits like that to look for signs of progress and whatnot, but definitely not for making big picture roster decisions). I know Lucroy is 30, had a bad year just last year, and given the ~96% chance at winning the division already, doesn't change things much this season. Add in Willson's age and contract status and it isn't even a close call for me. EDIT - And while not on Lucroy's level, it's not like Contreras has graded out as a detriment as a framer, so far. Let's look forward then. ROS ZiPS has Lucroy as a .339 wOBA compared to .306 for Contreras. Plus the defensive impact means that Lucroy is going to be a far better option. I'd personally rather not make that move given the likely cost, but there's little argument that the Cubs aren't better with Lucroy as the catcher this year and next.
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You can find a way to keep Contreras from wasting away in AAA even with Lucroy, but it definitely stunts his development, especially as a catcher. Like I said earlier, it's not necessarily bad/wrong, but it's very much prioritizing short term only. As far as framing goes, I don't think that's it. Montero has been a very strong framer and done almost nothing else well(hit, block pitches, throw out runners). The fact that he's continuing to get playing time at all is a bit of a tribute to how much they likely value his framing/game-calling. Lucroy grades out very well as a framer too.
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I'm going to need to see documentation of this. I've seen multiple people claim it, but nothing from anyone who actually has knowledge of the situation. [tweet]https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/759866974339936257[/tweet]
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I don't know that this is true to a very significant degree this year and next, and certainly not beyond that. Contreras has a .692 OPS in July, .518 since the break, and Lucroy is a much better defender/framer. It is true to a very significant degree.
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We've already seen the approximate price to get Lucroy, it's not low and definitely more than you'd want to pay for 1.5 years of a part time player. Lucroy is very good so it wouldn't make sense from a practical standpoint to play Contreras over him either(at least not this year).
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I still don't think the OF rumors made sense unless there was a different deal sending out Soler. As it stands, Coghlan, Soler, and Baez(via Bryant/Zobrist in the OF) make a pretty strong combined option that I don't think is appreciably upgraded by Reddick/Bruce.
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Lucroy's cost would be too high to not take advantage and play him every day, so that'd be a definitive win now move at Contreras' expense. Next year too. Not necessarily wrong, but very opinionated to the short term. Outside of Lucroy I don't see a practical option for this year outside of hoping Contreras catches on quickly or Montero gets right. Maybe Derek Norris if you think his bat is easier to turn around than Montero's?
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I have to think Schwarber the catcher is mostly dead, definitely dead to the extent that you could count on him catching more than once a week or so in 2017. I think if you want to even do the Schwarbs at catcher once a week thing, it is hard to invest significant other assets at catcher, though. I think they'll go the route of a David Ross type that brings experience, leadership and defense if they ditch Montero. I think the most likely scenario is that they plan to go into next year with Contreras + Montero, with a question mark on Schwarbs being back there once in a while if his knees can take it. Right, that's the rub. If Montero is toast then you don't have legitimate Contreras insurance, and a Ross type isn't going to be a worthy option to play ~60% of a contender's games if Contreras struggles or needs a DL stint. And that's if we optimistically assume 20-30 games caught by Schwarber, it's a bit more dire if those games need to be accounted for too. I'm a longtime Montero fan and I think he could be better than he's been this year, which would make him ideal for the job. But I'm a lot less confident than I was 6 months ago.
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I believe in Willson quite a bit long term, although if things don't tick up a bit with Montero, I'm a little worried about next season specifically. Finding another C that's good enough for Contreras insurance but not a waste of resources(since he wouldn't be an outright starter) isn't going to be a particularly easy task. Have faith in Schwarb's rebuilt knee? I have to think Schwarber the catcher is mostly dead, definitely dead to the extent that you could count on him catching more than once a week or so in 2017.
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I believe in Willson quite a bit long term, although if things don't tick up a bit with Montero, I'm a little worried about next season specifically. Finding another C that's good enough for Contreras insurance but not a waste of resources(since he wouldn't be an outright starter) isn't going to be a particularly easy task.
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Other Games Week of 7/25
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
lol the Mets bring in Blevins for the 7th and that Wolters(a lefty himself) slaps a bunt past him -
I know Aroldis & Rondon are here to put out fires and they will most the time. Every one in awhile someone will rip an opposite field gapper off them taking their heat the other way. But, giving them a clean slate inning to start with & they are goin to be damn near perfect. Not necessarily unbeatable but it will be very Rare to beat. Coupled with Jakes struggles of late. Seemed like an easy decision.. its very hard to string together multiple base runners against our duo. It was also hard to string together multiple base runners against Arrieta today. How many had he given up before the 8th? 3? Yep, one walk and two singles.
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That logic applies in the 7th inning, and the 6th inning, and the 5th inning too. You can't pitch the same relievers every game, so you have to 'play the percentages' where you make slightly less than optimal decisions to make tomorrow better. Rondon is a better bet to blank the M's in the 8th, but Arrieta at 90 pitches when he's been very good(and the hitters due up were 0 for 4) is also a very good option. Like we saw, going to Arrieta doesn't preclude you from later going to the better option too, as we were Chapman v. Leonys Martin from getting out of the inning with no runs.
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Wh-what were you looking for Bryant
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He threw at least one strike in that at bat, he wouldn't have been throwing from the stretch if the previous batter had been properly rung up, even if that is a walk then 1 on 1 out is a very different situation, etc. I think that's excusing too much, though. They were trying to give us an out and he really just didn't perform, whether it was in the stretch or not, etc. The point isn't that Arrieta didn't do anything wrong with the second hitter, the point is that he deserved a better end result than 2 on, no out. Even if we say that the 2nd hitter is 150% on Arrieta, he should have had 1 on, 1 out, Sardinas maybe isn't bunting, the DP is maybe in order when Aoki is up, etc.
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I don't think that's irrational, and especially since it was the 8th I'd have been fine with Rondon starting the inning. But the 'what the heck why is Jake starting the inning?' reaction doesn't add up. He had been mowing down the lineup all day, and deserved better from the ump than BB/BB to start that inning too. Why do you keep indicating the second at-bat was on the ump? He threw at least one strike in that at bat, he wouldn't have been throwing from the stretch if the previous batter had been properly rung up, even if that is a walk then 1 on 1 out is a very different situation, etc.
