Transmogrified Tiger

If you want to be upset at acquiring Chapman, feel free. I've said more than once that's more than justified. But at least acknowledge that there's not going to be a response that makes it right for you. The statement talks about working with his girlfriend to improve their relationship and raise their son together. That's just talk, but you can fake your way through anger management too. There was never going to be a meaningful sentiment behind a statement like this, but for what it is it hits the right notes.

I mean, he literally says "I regret that I did not exercise better judgment and for that I am truly sorry". It's just words on a page so it doesn't undo anything that he did, but a small part of the irritation with Chapman was his lack of remorse. A professional hobby of mine is giving and evaluating apologies, and that's a pretty good one. It doesn't hide behind passive wording like apologize, or separate himself from the behaviors by saying he's sorry for the effects of his behavior. He's directly saying he's sorry for his (admittedly ambiguous) actions, and like Brett just pointed out on Twitter, he didn't have to do this as a guy who was traded (there's no extra motivation like a contract for him). Again, it doesn't undo anything that happened and people are still right to not be happy, but this is what handling the acquisition properly looks like given the realities of the situation.

You might not be wrong, but I don't think it particularly matters. Chapman is not a good guy, this is the worst but not the only data point in that regard. He put his hands around the woman's neck as part of an argument, shot a gun in frustration, and (this might be a previous incident) hurt his hand punching a car window. Anyone not comfortable or happy with him on the team because of it is not unjustified, especially given the culture around domestic violence and extra especially with celebrities/athletes. It doesn't mean that's the one true interpretation, but debating the minutiae of that incident is not a winning argument, because even if you're right the people upset are still not wrong.

The Cubs now have 3 of the top 14 relievers in K%, 3 of the Top 8 in the NL.

Hendricks is right between DeGrom and Greinke in fWAR.. Forecasting pretty much any SP beyond the next 2 years is going to be rife with issues. The Cubs will need to make changes to keep a solid rotation for 2018 and beyond. So will literally every team in baseball. That doesn't mean their window is closed or shutting or whatever, but more that sustained success is difficult and can't be guaranteed for long time horizons.

You're starting to sound as silly as the people lamenting McKinney's inclusion. umm no Pretty close. It's not unreasonable to be uneasy about paying a high price for a half season of an elite reliever. It can and has been taken too far into prospect clutching, but so is taking the 'Chapman is an elite reliever that makes us better' argument to 'Torres, Cease, McKinney, who cares they're in A-ball'.

You're starting to sound as silly as the people lamenting McKinney's inclusion.

'Actually Schwarber can't hit' is my favorite dumb argument in a long long time.

This is a trade that the Cubs are not very likely to regret. Warren and McKinney are extremely unlikely to become first division starters, and I've been campaigning to sell high on Torres for months so I'm not worried about him being a future star. At the same time, it's not great from a value perspective. I absolutely understand why they'd go to these lengths for Chapman's quality, I just wonder how different is this than what it would've taken to get someone like Colome, or even Doolittle. I understand those acquisitions serve different purposes, but if you're using this much trade currency on a relief pitcher I get uncomfortable with such a short time horizon.

Chapman is not eligible for a qualifying offer if traded in-season.

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Of course he believes it. He's been talking since day one about the only way to win a world series being to make the playoffs consistently. Agreed. So why is he doing this? I can't figure it out. (I only truly believe some of this, but do think it's a logical sequence) Torres is always going to be trade bait. One because he's blocked and two because his value is at it's peak now. He's a jack of all trades/master of none that is likely to be exposed at higher levels. Doesn't mean he'll never reach MLB, but the ceiling goes way down if he has to move to 2B, or the power never comes(and then the plate discipline erodes). With that in mind, Torres is a bit of a time bomb. You can trade him now, you can trade him in the offseason, but by next trade deadline he could have value a fair bit lower than he does now. That means you can trade him for Chapman, try to find another deal for him now, or trade him in the offseason. Now let's add in scarcity, because if not for an elite reliever then it makes sense for Torres to get traded for a quality SP. Except that trade market is even more bonkers than Chapman's right now, and has been for about 18 months. The Cubs have wisely avoided it and built a quality rotation through trading for reclamations(Arrieta), developing(Hendricks), and the right FA signings, which typically have been in the middle of the market(Feldman, Hammel, Hammel again, Lackey, Lester is the outlier). So if you think that even by selling high on Torres that you're unlikely to find a SP deal to use him in, then the idea of sending him for Chapman becomes a lot more appealing, because the 'only' other option before he starts to lose real value is something like trading for a CF in the offseason. Also they aren't just trading him for Jonny GoodReliever, but one of the most consistently dominant and unique relievers that has ever existed.

I had to watch it like 5 times to see it, Sano kisses the ball between fielding and throwing.

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I have as much faith in the front office as anybody, but if both Torres and Soler go to the Yankees, there's almost an 100% chance I'm going to be bummed. I will look as stupid as anyone if they get Eovaldi/Pineda and Bosio fixes them(for 1 year until they're a FA), but that seems like a reeeeeal inefficient use of resources, unless the extra assets are being flipped elsewhere, a la the Pomeranz rumor.

Sorry for the multiple posts, but this thread is moving fast. [tweet]https://twitter.com/juliedicaro/status/757382397520326656[/tweet] [tweet]https://twitter.com/juliedicaro/status/757382158780465156[/tweet]

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I'm wondering if there is starting to be some realization that the concept of trading for a young, established, cost-controlled, top-half-of-the-rotation starting pitcher is not viable. This is tangent to your point, but there's still a part of me that wants them to move away from the traditional rotation model and have guys permanently piggy back or otherwise max out for a time or 2 through the order. Chapman for 200 innings is probably a health risk at this point, but he could probably be similarly dominant for 3-5 innings every 4 games or so. Montgomery, Wood, Grimm, Cahill, Edwards, all those converted starters could conceivably be tried in such a role too, in addition to maybe helping current backend starters like Hammel, Lackey, even Hendricks.

Mike Mayers is spot starting for the Cardinals in his MLB debut. It is off to a rough start. 1B 1B BB HR 2B

Honestly I never felt genuinely comfortable with him being a Cub after that. I'm glad they traded him. What was the Starlin situation? I don't recall any off field stuff, just an abrupt performance drop-off when there were a lot of new SS options coming around. Castro was accused of sexual assault in early 2012. Nothing ever came of it from a legal perspective, he was questioned by police and no charges were ever filed.

I think that's a very logical train of thought, I'd be interested to see you take it to conclusion. If every team logically applies it does it end with Chapman being blackballed? That could bring a collusion lawsuit to MLB's door. Maybe it's one they'd win because athletes are ultimately entertainers and teams don't want to alienate a percentage of their fanbase and everyone is happy except for Chapman, a proper outcome. There's also a logical train of thought that says that people can make make mistakes, even egregious ones, and still be worthwhile humans after being punished. This is something the internet handles poorly, partially because so many real injustices go without true punishment, and also because it's easier to think in binary terms. I don't think it's an incompatible viewpoint to think that Chapman's case should have been scrutinized more by law enforcement, but also that he shouldn't be punished for things that only public perception claims he has done. In the case of Chapman it's easier to claim that perception is reality, in other cases it's far less clear, and personally I'd rather the team not be the arbiter there. That's why on one end of the seriousness spectrum I think it's dumb how people like Zobrist or Coghlan less for their walkup music, and on the other end I'm not going to be furious with the Cubs for acquiring Chapman(especially when they aren't profiting off his situation like the Yankees did when the accusations first arrived).

He's saying that the Cubs shouldn't be adding trade value to get an extended Chapman because they can do that in free agency in a few months. He(and several others parroting that logic) are not correct. Certainty matters.

Chapman has already made a lot of money, close to 50 million if my understanding of his Reds deal is right. He could very well be okay with something approaching market value if he knows he's very likely to get multiple title shots. Also as a reliever you never want to turn away from a lot of guaranteed money, even if it is only a few months until free agency.

Szczur might have been safe